Tip of the Day: 04/09/15

UPDATE: 

Well two more atrocious, and unexpected runs, and I appear to have gone ice cold again. Big Chill received the strangest of rides, front runner, help up over 6f with form over further. Nothing low go into it and despite travelling well, game over. 

Flexible Flyer looked good at halfway but found very little, with the 3/44 Gramercy, 0/18 2 places on Good to Soft and Soft, getting up. Backed from 10/2 into 13/2 that was very disappointing. 

Clive Cox’s debtant won at 20/1 at Haydock, helping my bank balance but not my mood. I may just be best putting a shortlist up and leaving my thoughts out of it, given my new downward trend. Poor. 

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Well the last 4 runners have been atrocious. It was always possible with Fossa, given the fitness doubt, but I was happy to take a chance at the odds. He traveled well enough if a bit fresh before fading in the home straight. I have no concerns that he will be winning again and I plan to be on when he does, touch wood. The irish runner didn’t run well but nothing went right if you watched the race. Jockey initially planned to race wide it looked, in daylight maybe, but there was a false start, and she was bumped. Not sure if that injured her, prob not, but caught my eye. Then when lining up again jockey caught sleeping, went up inside and was then surrounded. Odd, given initial starting position. The nose band then came detached during race, flapping in her face causing her to guess at two hurdles, she drifted back and another jockey ripped it off – at that point I think she may have had enough – anyway, whether those factors made a difference or not no idea, she could just have had an off day. Onwards…

Running Total: 44 bets / 10 wins / 19 places (inc wins) / +13.5 SP 

There are a couple of decent sprint handicaps today that I could not resist…

2.40 Ascot 

Big Chill 1 point EW 9/1 (bet365, BV, WH) 4 places 

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3.00 Haydock 

Flexible Flyer 1 point EW 11/1 (BV, Coral) 10/1 (general) 4 places – 1 more non runner and 3 places. 

write up to follow..+plenty of JJ Quin Qualifiers. 

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A quick word on staking…for Tip of The Day I like to keep to 1 point only per horse, but these are the bets I have placed and if this were a ‘big race preview’ say, with 4 places, this is what I would advise. I expect both to go close here and with 4 places had a dilemma of 1 point win, 1/2 EW or as advised. How you stake is up to you but they will be recorded as 1pt EW.

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Big Chill…

His trainer is 4/11 with flat handicappers at the track and although those wins come from two horses, they clearly perform well enough here. The trainer is also in form..1/10, 6 places in the last 30 days. They are all generally running well enough.

Having gone through the race in the same way I do all sprint handicaps, at the prices, he is the one I want to be in, regardless of those stats above.

He keeps placing and in truth I can’t work out if it is his attitude or stamina. For potential attitude issues he gets cheekpieces here, and for stamina he gets a drop down of 1f. Both of those caught the eye. Now he is a maiden, and 0/10 on the flat, but has placed 7 times, with 4 seconds on the bounce. All of the races he has run in have worked out well and Baker keeps the ride. It would be no shock if the application of headgear and drop down were his suggestions. His last race was on soggy turf after a shower and plenty of his sires offspring get juice in the ground. A stiff 6f here could be just what he wants. He has been front running recently and there is not loads of pace in this race. The danger is that he is not ‘quick enough’ for 6f, having been used to 7f, but his speed figure is second best in the race and I can’t think that will be an excuse come the end of the race. If he runs anywhere to his recent level, and runs his race, he should be bang there. 

There are quite a few out of form horses in here, and horses whose connections dont have the greatest record at the track. 

Cape Xenia is clearly improving and is priced up as such. Candy is only 3/54 at the track since 09 and the jockey is only 4/108, suggesting he doesn’t ride it that well. Those stats could mean nothing come 2.45 but they make 5s look short enough – the horse will have to step up again in recent efforts and prove herself on the ground,something which the trainer thinks she will like apparently. Clearly a big run will be no shock. 

Milady could be anything and I am just guessing too much. Charlton has a great record at the track with handicappers,8/35m 14 places, but I don’t know if the form amounts to much. She could have any amount in hand mind so it will be interesting to see how she goes. Charlton has a solid 14% strike rate with handicap debutants in last 5 years, 0/3, 0 places at track. 

The rest have a far too many questions to answer for me, and if another wins I will say what put me off tomorrow! A mixture of trainer/jockey form at track, recent form, profile, and fitness questions…(ie Spring Loaded here off 111 day break, 0/4, 0 places on flat to date, ran ok LTO / Pixeleen – all wins good to firm/firm, jockey 0/43, 4 places at track, etc) 

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Flexible Flyer…

The trainer is 2/5, 2 places with runners here – not stats to get too tied too, but interesting nonetheless. One of those winners was this horse on his penultimate run where he demolished a decent field over CD, in the same ground. 7 winners have come out of the race, making the form look solid enough. He is 0/6 on the AW now and I am happy to ignore his last run. If he runs like he did here last time he will make 10s look a bit too big I think. He has gone up 6lbs but is still open to improvement and may well have won with that penalty last time anyway- he wasn’t stopping at the line. He will race handily, there will be no excuses, and if he runs his race we should get a good run for our money. Let’s hope all 16 line up for the extra place if needed. 

Maybe Definitely is a danger and I must admit to having a saver on. He is unexposed in his second handicap and looks the other most interesting at the prices. If building on that last run he may not be too far away. His maiden win was over 7f though and he will need a strong pace to aim at, but he will be staying on near the end I think – the ground is a slight question too, although has placed form in a maiden on it. 

Harwoods Volante will run his race and would not be a surprise winner. He ‘won’ his race on the far side at Thirsk LTO although they were miles behind. His two runs before that were a bit uninspiring and with form over 7f is another that will need a strong pace..he could try and lead but may find a couple with a better turn of foot near the end. If they do go quick he has a chance. Makin is 2/4, 4 places on him. 

 Piazon is unexposed and ran well enough LTO. He is 0/4, 2 places 6f, but if building on that last run could go close. 6s was skinny enough for me in a race of this nature mind. Zezar could build on his last run but there is a ground niggle and he keeps placing without looking like he is about to win. If handling the ground his consistency could see him thereabouts. Compton Park could also be thereabouts and could be spot on now after a couple of runs this season. His speed figure is poor, but Hanagan catches the eye and he could run a decent race.

 I was struggling to make an overly compelling case for the rest.

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Shortlist…

The 7.55 Kempton looks tricky, where a stats and form case could be made for all the top three. Lanigan is 21/70, 32 places at the track and then there is the Fanshawe runner who was so impressive last time out, the preferred jockey back up top. And then there is an even more unexposed Godolphin runner. It is hard to split them really and be over confident on either. 

Phelan is 4/20, 8 places at Ascot in handicaps, and Quest For More looks interesting at 7s – unlike most of these he is proven on the ground and ran well LTO. (3.45 Ascot) 

There are a couple of maidens to keep an eye on. Haggas is 3/5 with 2yo newcomers at Haydock and runs Olympic Runner in 2pm. Likewise Clive Cox is 2/8, 4 places with such runners at the track and runs Priceless in the 2.30. 

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September Trainers 

JJ Quinn (8/1 or under) 

-2.50 Newc Kashtaree (trainer/jockey 5/20, 11 places here which is interestin, but unfancied)

-3.00 Hayd – Nezar 

-3.35 Hay – Noble Asset

-5.10 Hay – Hubertas 

-7.45 Muss – Spend A Penny 

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Good Luck 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

8 Comments

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  • Great Stuff as ever Josh…

    Not checked out Flexible Friend yet am on Big Chill and am hopeful about the Quinn runners today especially the one in the 5:10 – Hubertas

    Good Luck

    JohnB 04/09/15 9:08 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh on the irish runner yesterday, i had a look on hrb and noticed all of the wins came from either 2 or 3 runs within 90 days. Not sure if thats just randomness or points towards an actual stratagy of the trainers? I’ve decided to track it anyway good luck today

    james 04/09/15 12:09 PM Reply


    • Cheers James…Yes that did cross my mind…but i thought he could well have run her somewhere else – she had to be fit enough to run better than that which suggests something went amiss, probably mentally, as race conditions were fine. Odds were fair enough to take a chance I felt. One of those things, as Harold pointed out the trainer doesnt have many winners anyway, and 50% were at that track. Be interesting how she goes on next few runs as a decent enough level of form for the grade, and she is still unexposed.

      Josh Wright 04/09/15 12:26 PM Reply


  • After the first two races, JJ Quinn’s already had a 33/1 second and a 5/1 winner

    Marcus 04/09/15 1:21 PM Reply


    • yes that has made me plan to go back and have a look at non-handicap runners. Clearly in form. Priceless just won for Cox at 20/1!

      Josh Wright 04/09/15 1:36 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh. Priceless wins 2.30 at Haydock at 40.4 BFSP. What a way to start the day! Thanks again

    Allan 04/09/15 1:44 PM Reply


    • Glad you had some on – yes couldnt believe that BFSP, alas I only had 20s! Hopefully that makes up for how poor the ‘main selections’ performed. The shortlist is doing ok really, I will have to go back through and see just how well!

      Josh Wright 04/09/15 2:16 PM Reply


  • Hopefuly this bad run will come to an end soon …last month or so down about a hundred to 100 pound to 10 pound per point stakes …

    harold 05/09/15 2:35 AM Reply


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