Running Total (trial) : 38 bets / 10 wins / 19 places (inc wins) / +19.5 SP
Titus Bolt – 1 point win – 6/1 (general)
The way in…
Well a mixture really, but mainly Pace and his geegeez speed rating. I like finding front runners in general that I think may stay there, and even more so when they have an impressive speed figure compared to their rivals. His is 79, the next bets is 61 and with the rest in the low 50s and high 40s. There are no out and out front runners in here and Titus has been leading and/or tracking the pace. I hope Bartley just sends him to the front and plays catch me if you can.
To my eye he has been getting outpaced on his last few starts over 12f and with assured stamina for this trip, the step up looks ideal. It is interesting that he now drops into a ratings band where he has won all his flat handicaps. He is 4/15, 7 places OR51-60 opposed to 0/11, 1 place OR61+. The jockey has won on his and he is 2/13, 4 places at the track, so no issues on that front. He also wont mind what the ground does with enough winning and placed form on soft/heavy over both codes if there is plenty of rain. He has also won in C3 on the flat and has a bit of star quality for this level, if putting it all together. Only Jim Goldie will know if today is the day – he is very shrewd 🙂 …
That leads me to the spanner in the works..he has another runner in here who is the fav – but it isn’t unknown for his more unfancied runners to win when he has a few in the race. Aleksander is 2/31 in his career and looks to need further to my eye. Now, they could well tell Titus to absolutely blast off in front here to make it a real test and set it up for him. He does appear to like a sound surface and he is 0/8, 0 places with juice, albeit I am guessing a bit as to what the weather does – there is meant to be rain in the area. He is handicapped to go well, is in some form, and drops into C6 here, so I can see why he is top of the market. But, he doesn’t like winning too often and if there is rain that won’t help his cause. I wouldn’t say he is a value price either.
The rest are much of a muchness. Jan Smuts has yet to win below 16f although has placed a few times. He is also 1/32 when rated OR61+. Sergeant Pinks wins on the flat come when returning within 15 days usually, he is 0/9, 0 places 16-60 days rest, and I never know who seriously to take form from Ladies Amateur riders races, or amateur races in general, given jockeyship plays a major role in the result. But, he is in form at least. Vittachi is also in form and is 5/48 in career flat handicaps. You would like to think he needs more than his two most recent runs, and is 1/16 at the track. Clearly he needs a lot to go right. All race conditions look fine for him, and he wont mind rain. The rest look up against it.
So, it is maybe open enough on paper but the speed rating, predicted pace angle (doesnt always go to plan), slight drop in the weights and step up in trip were enough for me to think 6/1 was fair enough, and worth paying to find out if he can lead all the way. If he runs to his best, I don’t think the others have the ability to get near him.
-Compton Heights was interesting in the 3.00, coming here in great form and with an impressive speed figure. He is up 9lbs for last win but is improving and is lightly raced for his age. Trainer/jockey are 4/16, 8 places here and he won’t be far away, albeit it looks a competitive sprint and a better race than his last win.
4.40 Catt – Classic Villager
8.25 Kempt – Cloud Seven
FANSHAWE (AW Switchers)
7.55 Kempt – Fresh Kingdom
8.25 Kempt – Landwade Lad
Both have the main man on for Fanshawe here, and hopefully they run a good race.