Tips of the Day 22/08/15 + York Notes

Well, a superb day for the ‘shortlist’ yesterday and nearly a treble for the post as the main Tip of The Day went down by a nose. It was agonising as she was caught on the line. But, that is racing and it is best not to dwell on these things. I/we will benefit from nose victories and errors by opposition in future and it all evens itself out. I know a few of you backed her EW, so no damage done – I didn’t. King Muro hacked up on the bridle 7/2>5/2 but the fun was to come with Bosham – available at 33s last evening and in places early morning I think, he hacked up, leading all the way and winning like a C6 Frankel at 11/1 SP 🙂 I had 1/2 point on EW at 33s and that rather made my evening. Again, I know a few of you had a dart so well done. 

It was great for the North and for racing I think to see Mecca’s Angel dot up for connections who are liked and respected among the racing fraternity it would appear. I had no idea what the ground would be like but it appeared to be perfect for her and she was a worthy winner. In soft/sticky ground you wouldn’t want to be taking her on. My two outsiders ran as such and were never in it. 

Coincidentally if you are on Twitter, you can follow me @Josh_HW – I usually tweet this post as soon as it is up and I tweeted Bosham the evening before. You will have to ignore the odd non racing related tweet/retweet 🙂 

***

 

Tip of The Day 

2.55 Chester – Banzari 1 point win 5/1 (general) 

5.20 Curragh – Empress Toorah- 1 point win 9/2 (WH) 4/1 (general) 

 

Well I am going double handed again as I cannot split them and maybe I should have done this yesterday – and it takes the pressure off when I can’t find anything on a days racing. These selections are very much about the stats and the horse, not so much about the opposition. 

Banzari…

Michael Bell dosn’t send many handicappers to Chester but they are worth a second look when he does. 6/26, 14 places since 2009 +8 SP, and 1/4, 3 places in the last year. That stat interested me but then I saw that he was also 2/5, 4 places with his handicap debutants here. 

Everything about the way this horse has been campaigned suggests they think she could be very smart, and they clearly think she is up to gaining some black type down the line. Bell won this race last year with a similar type of horse, and having won her maiden impressively pitched her into the Cheshire Oaks here a few months ago. Given a break – not sure if due to a problem or just given time – I expect she will be fully tuned up. 

There looks to be plenty of pace in here and from the low draw she should be able to tuck in on the rail and track it. She will need luck in running up the home straight but as long as she is not too far back should go close. Her speed figure is also impressive and I will just have to trust the trainer when it comes to her getting this trip. 

They go 4/1 the field here which suggests there are no stand out ‘good things’ and at 5/1 I thought she was worth chancing given all of the above. 

***

Empress Touch…

Comes here at the top of her game having won easily 5 days ago. The trainer is 8/34, 15 places with handicappers here and 4/8. 5 places in the last year. She is also 4/8. 5 places at the track when teaming up with this jockey. Everything looks set for another big run from this horse and 4/1 was more than fair. I also likes the pace angle – i think Roche will be able to lead if he wants, or at the very least sit handy. In these smallish fields that is what you want and hopefully he can steal the race turning in. 

The concern is that one of the unexposed horses is now better handicapped but I am happy to take that chance at the odds. The danger is the Weld horse who is open to improvement but came off the pace in a larger field than this – there is a chance it is not run to suit – and he only got up late there. He wears blinkers suggesting he isnt the easiest. Clearly I wont be open mouthed if he wins. Bolger doesnt have a great record with handicap debutants, only 2/42 or so in the last year. Breathe Easy is interesting but has won over 10f and when he won over 8f that was a big field race – again this may not be run to suit and could be out paced. Chenega Bay too ages to win a maiden and I am not sure how good he is, but could be open to improvement on handicap debut.

It looks competitive but we will have track position and the horse is still improving. We should get a run for our money, provided she doesnt fold having run 5 days ago.

*** 

York Notes

No big race previews today. I havent really had the time, nor mental energy, to dive into the Ebor which looks a cracker. I am sure there are plenty of decent previews out there. 

Max Dynamite won yesterday – another to have run at Galway LTO – my stats related to the handicaps and in truth I didnt look at the non handicap stats – but clearly a run there is a decent pointer. 

Clondaw Warrior / Quick Jack / Wicklow Brave all ran at Galway LTO and should be taken very seriously as such, given those handicap stats are now 5/14, 8 places since 2009, after the Tony Martin winner on Wednesday. It will be interesting to see how they go. I haven’t looked at the race at all as yet.

Another quiet flat festival for me and due to some failures in the past I won’t find bets, or preview races, for the sake of it. There are many better form judges than me with non-handicaps and group races, especially 8f+, and they are not really my thing. Automatically that excludes quite a lot of races.    

***

August Trainers (14/1 or under)

3.25 Sand – Oh So Sassy 

3.30 Chest – Clockmaker 

5.25 York – Accipiter

***

Good Luck with your Saturday wagers, it looks as tough as ever. 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • 2:55 – Sabrina Harty handicappers at the Curragh 🙂 excellent stuff made me some good money this summer

    Interested to see your write up on Banzari I missed that one

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


  • York is tough as ever I might go in with Haggas today Already had a nibble on Arabian Comet in the Ebor and Toe The Line with Jamie Spencer booked. Trainer John Kiely can plot one up. The Irish look to have the whip hand in the race.

    4:55 – Earth Drummer – 7/1 – David O-Meara could do with a winner – Looks nicely handicapped and one to watch out for in the autumn ran well at the Shergar Cup after a long lay off.

    5:25 – Thesme – 14/1 – Might have got this race priced up wrong but Nigel Tinkle’s horse looks overpriced to me at 14/1. Won well over the track last time, broke fast then showed plenty of speed to make all for a nice win. if the jockey can get her to break fast could be hard to peg back with the track favoring those up with the speed. Good groundshould be fine not sure about more rain given its by Exceed and Excel

    Up in grade today but there are a couple of “sexy” runners fromt he Varian haggas yards who look plenty short enough to me

    A handful of my bets today away from the Knavesmire

    Sandown

    4:00 – A trainers in nursery’s micro system that has been very profitable to follow over the past 5 seasons with a group of 5 trainers who combined have a 30% plus winning strike rate.

    There is one such runner today from the Ed Walker yard in Hope Cove. The trainer’s record in such races with horses 12/1 and under in the betting is:

    Since 2010

    6 wins/17 bets 35.29% +16.13

    Hope Cove – 8/1 @ William Hill & Bet365

    Chelmsford

    A trainer with a high strike rate and a jockey with an equally good strike rate at the track combine with one:

    8:45 – Shifting Moon – Trainer Hughie Morrison has an excellent strike at the track since its return – 6 wins/11 runners +55.55 +8.52 A/E 1.87 – Today he has booked jockey Kieran Fox who is 5 wins/9 runners 56% +14 at the course.

    Shifting Moon – 5/1 @ William Hill & Ladbrokes

    Final selection comes from Perth

    Perth

    4:25 – Solway Legend – Lisa Harrison’s record with handicap chasers at the track catches my eye. Since 2010 her record is 6 wins /20 runners 30% +17.33 A/E 1.96 so you could have backed them blind and made a profit but if you only backed her runners when they were 9/1 and under in the betting her record is 6 wins /14 bets 42.86 +23.33 A/E 2.2. If her horses are well fancied they usually go very well. The trainer brings three handicap chasers to the track this one and two in the 5:35 but those two to are best priced 14/1 & 25/1 so are outside the price range. I am sure one day she will win with a bigger priced horse but for now I am happy with the system qualification

    Solway Legend – 11/2 @ Paddy Power & Bet365

    Good luck to all

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


  • Great write up on Banzari – Looks set for an Autumn campaign, clearly likes a some ease in the ground Run behind Diamondsandrubbies here better than it looked was drawn wide. Nice weight, nice price amd I am in as the Dragons say!

    Sabrina Harty is a good example of a trainer with an MO of preparing her horses for a certain time of year July to Sept. I haven’t got my figures to hand but she is profitable to follow in that period. Looks to have a fair number of horse who like good ground and unlike some trainers she will pull out a horse if its fancied if the ground goes against it.

    As ever good luck to all and anyone playing York hopefully your doing better than me.

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


    • Cheers John, good luck. Some interesting stats etc in there and hopefully you have found a few winners. Big festivals are always tough and anyone that comes out in front consistently deserves their success – tough. Each race needs a lot of study, unless backing trainers/micro systems, and betting in most races through the card is a quick way to poor house from my experience.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Two appalling runs , especially the latter , but no complaints .Been on a decent run so it was inevitable .Great training performance regarding the ebor winner

    michael 1 year ago Reply


    • Yes they were weren’t they! Awful. Stats etc were fine and that approach will work long term, first either wasn’t fit enough (market suggested fine) didn’t stay or just wasnt good enough, or a combo of all. Latter either bounced or something went wrong. Yes wasn’t it just ,brilliant. On we go.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Banzari got a good position but i think might be better suited bi softer going or might not have trained on I would go with the former for now.

    Empress Toorah – not seen the race but maybe the race just came to soon for her.

    Thesme was well backed and as i thought would be hard to peg back if he got to the lead. Good simple ride by Rachel Richardson! Hopefully some would have joined the fun at a double figure early price.:) that and Ajaya (Haggas) and Toe the Line each way gave me a good profit on the day! Hopefully the Morrison horse at Chelmsford can add to it.

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


    • Yep well done you deserve that today. I did throw 1/2 point at Tinkler winner, at 8s, chasing haha. Remembered you mentioning it and I do track (don’t back systematically) his 3yo handicappers in micro system from some report I gave away few weeks back. Paid for all my other ‘interest’ bets!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Good stuff Josh

    My problem at these big Festivals and on Saturdays is too many interest bets and they certainly cut down on the profits

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


    • Well indeed. Nothing wrong with it as we love the game and as long as they are not ‘betting blind’, is using some tools or a way in, even if only looking briefly. Key is to make sure stakes are a lot lower, it is when interest bets turn into 10s /20s (I bet 20s a point on researched bets) that you get in trouble! I am no pro punter and sometimes you want an interest for fun, but I would have made quite a bit more over the months if I just didn’t do it! A fine balance!

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Big thanks to John B. Didn’t read your notes till late, but in enough time to have a small bet on Shifting Moon, and thank you kindly for that. I like your reasoning behind your bets. You seem to be on same wavelength as Josh in many cases. Thanks again and a nice weekend to one and all.

    Allan 1 year ago Reply


  • Thanks for your comment Allan

    I wont be putting up every day but when i get a chance i will put up a comment for you to look at and do with as you wish. Like Josh I will always put up some notes to accompany any of my selections.

    JohnB 1 year ago Reply


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