York Ebor: Day 1 (Oh dear)

UPDATE…

Well, that was over before it begun sadly based on how that race panned out. I have learnt something for the notebook there I believe and that is treat anything drawn high with extreme caution when there is rain in the ground. Nothing drawn high got into that and the low drawn horses that tacked over and ran up the middle dominated. Caspian Prince clearly had the ability to win this although his recent form and the fact I wasn’t convinced over his stamina were enough to put me off – I also didnt think he would get such an uncontested lead low, but nothing could live with him. Dean Ivory has clearly freshened him up and enhanced his impressive record at the track – he doesnt run many here but they generally run well when they do. There is a strong tail wind which I suspect has helped him see it out. Superb performance and it isn’t as much of a head scratcher as some of those would have been if winning. 

A line through that one. The near side rail must be a lot slower as there is no reason why both Tangerine Trees and Bogart would be effectively pulled up. Damn. 

 

 

 

1.55 York 

Tangerine Trees – 20/1 – 1 point EW (BET365 ONLY – 5 places

Bogart – 12/1 – 1 point win (SKYBET ONLY – money back free bet up to £25 if loses) 

(prices available across the board, but not concessions)

 

Stats…

Well they are a bit pointless in the sense there have only been 6 runnings of this race but there are some interesting pointers.

-6/6 did go off 16/1 or under (0/37, 4 places above this)

-6/6 – races in C2 LTO (0/36, 1 place did not) – that would exclude Desert Law/Caspian Prince/Silvanus/Highland Acclaim/Artic Feeling/Meadway/indescribable  

-5/6 drawn 11+ …. 5/51, 11 places drawn 11+. 1/51, 11 places drawn 10 or below: In truth the places suggests this is just luck really and very much dependent pace. Historically since 2008 I cannot see any major bias either. 

My shortlist comprises of: Huntsmans Close/Dutch Masterpiece/Highland Acclaim/Shore Step/Bogart/Tangerine Trees/Midlander

***

This looks a cracker and after much study and thought I just couldn’t leave the old boy at that price. He ran a cracker over 6f last time out and led for most of the way and well into the final furlong. It briefly looked like he was going to cause a major shock before his stamina gave out late on. A drop of 0.5F here or so looks ideal. He traveled ominously well last time cruising along and he looked like a horse in decent nick. He is a prominent race/front runner who is drawn in the highest stall and he could bag the rail and stay there. He has dropped 11lbs in his last 5 runs, without running atrociously and drops a pound from that decent run last time out. Once of the bridle he kept finding before fading late, but he still clung on for 4th, to reward 50/1 EW backers. That was a decent race, one where we had the winner with Shore Step not far away. 

He has plenty of back class and he will like the ground. I have no idea what it is, but officially it is Good to Soft and he has no problem with that. If that is the true going then a lot of these horses need to prove their liking for it. He doesn’t. He will be in the box seat and if he runs like he did LTO we will get a run for our money. Whether it is good enough we shall see. You always expect a more progressive horse to beat an old timer like this but all in I would be disappointed if he finished outside the top 5 – provided there is no track bias, which is hard to know, given there is pace across the track. 

BOGART – well Kevin Ryan’s runners over 5+6f at this meeting in handicaps, 12/1 or below are 5/13, 6 places since 2009. This horse won this race a couple of years ago and while very frustrating at times will be prepped to run a big race here. With the free bet concession I thought he was worth a punt and has been running ok this season. They may revert back to prominent tactics with him. I dont know if he will like the ground, he hasn’t had many tries on it and as such is yet to really prove he wont like it. He is a few pounds below that win in 2013 and I suspect this has been the season’s target. We shall see. 

***

I was struggling to make an overly compelling case for backing any of the others with 100% confidence. 

Huntsman’s Close has been running ok but all wins have been on flat tracks and under James Doyle, and also over 6f. There wasn’t much of an excuse LTO and I do think he needs to find more. But, he has the class to win this and is clearly in decent enough form so will no doubt run his race. 0/4, 1 place on ground with juice in is a niggle. Dutch Masterpiece is in a similar boat and will run his race. All wins over 5f, 0/2, 0 places over 6f although that last race at Ascot is like 5.5f given how stiff a track that is. He is unexposed but I do think others have been running in better races and he needs to find more on this seasons form. Highland Acclaim is 0/8, 1 place in this class of race and is usually slow away, and is a hold up horse. This is his first try under 6f as well, and maybe it will all happen a bit too quickly. He has pieces of form that will see him go close, and it may set up for a hold up type. Shore Step – well it would be annoying if he won given I have backed him a couple of times this season but that is no reason to back him here. The ground is an unknown and there was no real excuse last time. He ran well but got swallowed late on and needs a bit more. He is still to win above C3 level, 0/4, 2 places, and does need to get his head in front against decent opposition. All wins over 6f and his best form has been on Good to Firm. He has a few things to prove now. Midlander is trained by Johnston who is only 2/73 with handicappers here since 2009. He is unexposed and ticks a few boxes but needs to do it in a big field and does like to dominate, which he may not be able to do. 

You could make some sort of case for the other but a lot have a clear class ceiling and to my eye have only been running in OK races. Secretinthepark may go on now getting his head infront again but he is 0/9, 2 places C2 20k+ and is 0/8, 0 places 16+ runners. Mass Rally is frustrating and this may happen too quickly again. Mulrennan jumps ship and is riding elsewhere – if they thought he had a chance surely he would be on. He doesn’t win very often but could well travel like the winner at some stage. Distant Past runs for Ryan and is 12/1 or under would be of interest. His stamina looked to empty last time over 5f at Ascot and on soft ground. Still yet to win above C4 he needs to step up, but is unexposed.

***

All in all I think we should get a run for our money from the two selections and TT is a bit too big at 20/1. He has plenty in his favour here and could well be leading into the final furlong – it will just be whether he can hold on from some fast finishers. 

There does look to be pace across the track so I don’t see there being any excuses on that front. Of course you can never really tell how hard they will go and there are some trail blazers drawn low that could tow that whole side ahead of the near side. Then again that pace could collapse and there may not be much behind them to take advantage of it. A bit of guess work on that front today. 

 

***

A quick word in the 4.20 where a couple of micro angles crop up..

OMeara runs Big Thunder looking to enhance his record with fancied handicappers at this meeting, as detailed in the stats post a couple of days ago. He must go well. 

Also Martin runs Heartbreak City. He is interesting because he ran at Galway last time out and such runners are 4/13, 7 places in handicaps here. Martin is responsible for 4 of those runners, 1 of the winners and a couple of the places. Very interesting. 

I haven’t had a look at the race in depth, and don’t intend to, but I may have an interest bet on those two.

***

In the big one I have no strong views. I don’t get excited about those races from a wagering perspective but will enjoy watching the race. I wont sour my enjoyment of the race by lumping on something. I just hope we either get a 3/4 way go at the finish or a mesmerising  class performance from Golden Horn where he romps away by a few lengths.

***

Good Luck with your fancies.  

 

 

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7 Comments

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  • BOGART and MASS RALLY!!

    Jimbo 19/08/15 10:43 AM Reply


    • Bogart popped up in my tracker for today, my notes were ‘needed run lto’ but hasnt shown much so far this term. Also storm the stars in the 3:05 with the notes ‘good not soft’ good luck today Josh lets hope for a 5th winner today 😀

      james 19/08/15 11:08 AM Reply


    • Couldn’t put you off Mass Rally Jimbo, he is frustrating and doesnt win very often but if puts it all together, and pace collapses, then he would go very close indeed. His only ‘winning’ headgear combination is on today – i found the jockey booking odd, and he will need every yard of this trip – but arguably those negatives are built into the price – so good luck – but not too much 🙂

      Josh Wright 19/08/15 11:48 AM Reply


  • Josh, you ok with Tangerine Trees being outside winning price band?

    Jimbo 58 19/08/15 12:16 PM Reply


    • Yes, simply because it i only 6 previous runnings and that is no basis on which to make a strict punting decision- if we were talking 10, or last 18 renewals or something then I would want to see some market support. As a horse he has won at 18/1 and 33/1 in his career so not a ‘money down’ runner as such either. There are younger legs in here and that may show, but I thought he would be thereabouts so I had to have a go at that price. I would be more sick if i ignored him simply due to price and he won. That would be awful! He should have us on edge of seats at the 1f pole in any case.

      Josh Wright 19/08/15 12:21 PM Reply


  • A quick word in the 4.20 where a couple of micro angles crop up..

    Also Martin runs Heartbreak City. had a little ew Saved the day

    Cheers mate

    George 19/08/15 5:50 PM Reply


    • Good stuff George, yes I threw a bit at him and the fav, saved my day too!! Glad you read all the way down.

      Josh Wright 19/08/15 6:17 PM Reply


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