Tip of the Day: 17/08/15

I hope you had an enjoyable weekend. There is some great sport to look forward to this week and later today I will be looking to see if I can find any decent stats relating to handicaps at the Ebor meeting, which promises to be a superb few days of racing. 

For now, a trip to Chelmsford…

6.25 Chelm 

Falsify – 1 point win 10/3 (SkyB, BV, StanJ) 3/1 general. 

Another day bereft of statistical ways in (bar Kempton which I will get onto in a moment- lots of clashes with micro systems) has meant I have gone with a horse who I think will try and make all, and hopefully stay there. 

This is a poor race but this is the only horse doing something different. Having ran over 6f to date in her three lifetime starts she drops down to 5f, having shown speed to lead over 6f LTO. She gets the visor on for the first time and gets SDS in the saddle. I am hoping he tries and makes all here and gets them in trouble. It could be she just isn’t very good and fades again in the final furlong like LTO, but there was enough there to make me take a chance at 10/3. SDS is 1/13, 6 places for this trainer. Trainer is 3/17 at the track. The horse is unexposed and while clearly no world beater Cowell will not have got to the bottom of her yet and if the changes work she could have a bit in hand and be too good for this lot. There is plenty of speed in the family and we should get a good run for our money, at least for 4f or so. It is also a bit of guesswork as to how the horse will handle the track but that applies to most of them in this race. 

The opposition dont look a great bunch although there are some inform horses. Lucky Clover won a C6 race at Ffos Las and form there is always questionable. He is on a career high mark now and will have to improve again. He can lead, or track the pace and I am hoping the latter. This race, with the bend coming up sharply, could well be decided by the start. He will be thereabouts. Ruby Looker has an almighty break to overcome. Clearly if fully fit he is unexposed and could run a big race but that is a massive unknown and in general I dont like backing horses after such a lay off. Fine Judgement won well a couple of starts back leading from the front but was then very poor at Ffos Las lto. Maybe he doesn’t like the turf but he is in and out. Another who could run his race. Ohsosecret is unexposed at the trip but was only OK lto, but as an unexposed 3yo can never be truly discounted. The rest look to be up against it on recent form. 

So, this looks to be about the pace and whether SDS can blast off out in front and out ride his rivals. I think he can. The horse is doing a couple of things different (drop in trip/visor) that look interesting and she is unexposed. All in all, in what was a struggle to find a bet in a better race, this looks  to be a decent enough wager. 

***

Shortlist..

There are two races at Kempton where plenty of stats come together for a few horses and in the end I just knew I would end up selecting the wrong one to tip…

2.55

May Queen runs for August Trainer C Wall, who continues his great form. The horse is in form but is stepping up in class against some other unexposed horses.

Landwade Lad runs and qualifies under the Fanshawe micro system I researched last week, running here after running on turf LTO. He has a 30% SR with such runners and gets Tylicki on top – Trainer/Jockey 12/41, 20 places at the track with handicappers. 

The market suggests they both have an unexposed Bin Suroor horse to beat as well as a couple of others who are up there too. It looks open enough and I couldn’t make a compelling enough case for either of those above, although I may have a small dabble. 

4.55 

This is more interesting. The New Pharoah runs for Wall and is an August Qualifier. He also is making his handicap debut and the trainer is 6/13, 8 places with such runners at the track. 

Full of Speed is the second ‘qualifier’ for Fanshawe on the day and he is unexposed over this sort of trip and cannot be discounted. 

There is also a handicap debutant from Noseda which always catches the eye. He is 6/20, 10 places with such runners in the last year and 7/27, 11 places at the track. 

This looks an open and competitive race that is also lacking pace on paper. It could be slowly run and that could complicate matters further. Again, I couldn’t make a compelling enough case to tip any of the above, although the handicap debutant stats would make me more confident on the Chris Wall runner. 

Elswhere, Roger Varian is 3/6, 6 places with Handicap Debutants at Windsor and Bella Lulu looks sure to go well – albeit well found in the market. 

***

AUGUST TRAINERS 

In addition to those two from Wall above…

3.40 Thirsk – A Little Bit Dusty 

***

Have a great Day. 

As always, I always like to hear your thoughts and any fancies you may have for today. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

14 Comments

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  • Looking forward to your views on Kempton today Josh specifically the 2:55 and 4:55! At Thirsk i’m looking at Stenid or Sunrise dance in the 5:40 but unsure as to bavk them or not. Good luck

    james 17/08/15 8:51 AM Reply


    • Yea about 4/5 horses across those two races you could back from a stats perspective. I will have a play on some of them but undecided, and know I will end up backing wrong ones! That 5.40 looks interesting, as does that big field sprint at Thirsk, but havent had time to delve into it properly. Liliarch won the 5.40 last year, and runs over 6f for first time this season – looks like been target again, albeit taking a risk in a race like that. Good Luck.

      Josh Wright 17/08/15 8:56 AM Reply


  • Hi Josh…re Ebor meeting later this week and digging around for useful stats have you seen Gavin Priestley free handicap system (Shown below):

    Ebor Handicap System

    1) AGED 3-5
    2) CARRYING 9-00 – 9-08
    3) RATED 89-101
    4) RESTED 11 – 38 DAYS
    5) NOT RIDDEN BY A CLAIMING JOCKEY
    6) 14/1 OR SHORTER (optional)

    99 bets/ 24 winners/ 24.24% SR/ 114.8 SP_PL

    Here’s the link: http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/york-handicap-system/

    I’ve used Horseracebase (HRB) to see if its possible to refine this system….and on a first go (and it is a first try) have come up with:

    Age: 3-6
    Carrying: 9-0 to 9-8
    Rested: 11-45 days
    Odds: 14/1 or shorter
    Trainers: M Dods, M Dunlop J L, Haggas W J,Johnston M,OMeara, Ryan, K A (Johnston just about profitable to BF_PL)

    35 bets/ 15 winners/42.86% SR/ 97 SP_PL

    Fewer bets….higher SR….but a slightly lower SP_PL.

    Best

    Martin

    Martin 17/08/15 9:00 AM Reply


    • Cheers Martin…yes I just read that post this morning actually and I think I followed it last year as well, although from memory I think i missed a winner. I am about to start digging and will have a look at some trainers etc. Feel free to post selections from yours above in the comments each day.

      Josh Wright 17/08/15 9:08 AM Reply


  • hi martin
    the ebor hcap system is that one u are using for all hcaps at the meeting across all days?

    ant 17/08/15 9:54 AM Reply


  • ryan and haggas purely backing their 2yos in non hcaps in 5f to 7f races at odds 10/1 or under produces massive profits

    ant 17/08/15 10:02 AM Reply


    • Hi Ant….If you are referring to the slightly refined Ebor handicap – which is largely based on Gavin Priestley’s free system (see above) – I’ll be using it as a guide (to narrow the field down) but wouldn’t be backing the selections straight….like to see what the opposition is like.

      Gavin’s just posted another blog regarding the performance of W Haggas at the meeting. Here’s the link:

      http://nag-nag-nag.co.uk/york-trainer-to-follow/

      Ties in with your last comment.

      Best

      Martin

      Martin 17/08/15 11:35 AM Reply


  • Wish i had baked the qualifiers in the 2:55 1st and 3rd nice result!

    james 17/08/15 3:10 PM Reply


  • Well called josh , you hoped he’d lead and run it out of them – spot on- well done .

    michael 17/08/15 5:29 PM Reply


  • Another good shout. Hitting form nicely in time for York!

    allan 17/08/15 5:37 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh! You did better than me lol Stenid came last and sunrise dance 3rd. Nothing lost on the day tho

    james 17/08/15 6:05 PM Reply


    • Yep the hat trick up but wont rest on my laurels! I must admit to having a last minute 1/2 point dart on Two Turtle Doves as it suddenly came to me that he was the one to chase home that OMeara winner I ‘tipped’ last time, when she won her previous race at Haydock I think. One of those stupid impulsive bets, with some reasoning, that came off for once!

      Josh Wright 17/08/15 6:19 PM Reply


  • Boom!! Even on a Monday Josh – The race went completely to plan – 3/1 £20 £60 profit for the day

    Keep em comin!!!

    Joe 17/08/15 6:38 PM Reply


  • Nice Josh! Gotta say tip of the day is coming along nicely lets see if you can make it four in a row

    james 17/08/15 7:36 PM Reply


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