Tip of the Day: 13/08/15

A welcome return to the winners enclosure who found plenty when asked and is clearly progressing well. A minor irritation of a R4 deduction but still 2.25 points to add to the pot. 5/2 about a 6/4 shot is the way to do it. 

Running Total (trial): 29 bets / 6 wins / 13 places (inc wins) / +8.25 

***

3.35 Beverley 

Jebediah Shine 1.25 point win  7/2 (Coral, Betfred, ToteS) 3/1 (general) 

Surprisingly for me Coral let me have a full 1 point on (no more though, £20 appears to be my max allowed on that one) but there is plenty around. The 0.25 extra points helps round the bank to a nice number! – and I think she is worth it. 

In a day bereft of statistical ‘ways in’ , especially in race types/horses I want to be playing in, I have gone for a decent enough looking sprint handicap. 

Jebediah shine won well last time after a slight break following a flat run, having previously chased home the progressive Midlander at Chester. 

The only negative is if this run comes too quickly again, but I will trust OMeara that she is looking fine at home. If she does run badly that would be the natural excuse, and maybe after that she will be given longer as a matter of course, but I am happy to take that risk given the opposition and race set up. 

She was very game last time out, unable to dominate she eyeballed a rival for a few furlongs and to the eye at least they went quick enough given gap to rest. She saw off that rival and while never headed showed a great attitude when a rival loomed up. Head bowed, ears back, she wanted to win. The draw is no concern for me in this race and she only has 5 horses on her inside. If she breaks on terms I suspect the jockey will want to get her out and bag that rail. She doesnt have to lead and I can see no excuse for how the race will pan out. I can’t see her being trapped wide. She is in form, clearly open to more progress, and unless she bounces, will be right in there at the end. We have a horse who wants to win to my eye and that counts for a lot. 

The opposition all have a question or two to answer. 

Penny Royale and The Whispe look to be the main danger and all three of these will have to flop badly for one of them not to win. Penny Royale has been running OK, but nothing more. She either leads it would appear, or falls out the stalls. We could well be about to be ‘Easterby’ed’ as if she is bumped out along the rail and breaks on terms we may well have a race on our hands. To my eye, if running on her merits last time out, she looked to be outpaced over 5f and it is no surprise they have tried 6f. She is dropping in class here, and that will help. But the selection is progressing. She will run her race no doubt, but does need more than on recent runs I think. Never discount a horse bouncing back to form with these wiley connections. 

The Whispe just doesnt want to get her head in front it would seem. Her last two runs she has come under pressure when in the perfect position tracking a leader, but easy time has found very little. She runs out to the line, and will find a race at some point, but until getting her head back in front I am weary of backing her. She has the ability to win this if putting best foot forward, but that was enough to put me off. 

The rest look up against it. Busy Bimbo is a C6 horse on all known evidence, 0/10, 3 places C5, and 0/18, Good to Firm. Adiator caught the eye back down to 5f having run over 6f the last few starts. A repeat of her reappearance run would see her go close here and I expect she may well out run her odds here. But, she is 0/5, 0 places on Good to Firm and may want it with a bit more give. The other two dont like winning and on all known form I couldn’t back them. Tweety Pie is 1/22, that win being the maiden, and she does like placing. Down in the handicap, and with a further 7lb off her back, that could well be enough, but I cant back a horse with winning stats such as that. She will no doubt run her race again, we shall see. 

All in all we should get a run for our money if over her last run and she is progressing well enough. Hopefully she gets an easy enough lead on the front end and the jockey can save a bit for the end. 

***

Shortlist…

I will be backing both of Chris Gordon and Tom Cannon’s handicap hurdlers at Fontwell for 1/2 points, as I always do when they team up here with such runners. I have been following them for a while now. Fontwell/handicap hurdlers/16/1 or under = 2010-  70 bets / 18 wins / 33 places / +68 SP / +97 BFSP. 

They run Morestead Screamer in 2.45 and Herecomesthetruth in the 3.45. The former looks to have a decent enough chance but has yet to win or place in a race so I didnt want to tip. He is unexposed and will win a race at this track at some point, it could be today although he has a Harry Fry hot pot to contend with and he is 3/5 at the track to date. The latter is 13yo and runs over hurdles for first time in years. He could run well in a very poor race.

***

That is all for today. Good Luck. 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

13 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Hi Josh,

    As you say ‘In a day bereft of statistical ‘ways in’ ….’ its hard to find anything to back with much conviction. There were a few Mark Johnston horses at Beverley which could give a ‘statistical angle in’….considering his record at Beverley over the last few years is sound especially in Cl4 to Cl6 handicaps. However the one that made any appeal was Spirit of Wezda in the 4.35, but a record of 0/16 on the flat (still a maiden) didn’t really appeal to back it at 3/1. Maybe famous last words as it will probably gallop in this afternoon-;)

    Good luck with this afternoon’s selection Josh!

    Best Martin

    Martin 13/08/15 11:54 AM Reply


    • Well Johnston 2/2 at Beverley so far as off 3pm. He has a lot of runners there and it is just oicking them, although 25%sr and decent profit if you back them all blind. First was a selling handicap and second a nursery, not race types I like to play in if I can help it! Having said that, I could have found both through some Fanning micro angles I posted about a few weeks ago now. Alas this idiot didn’t add rules into HRB! I am doing that now, next time!

      Josh Wright 13/08/15 2:03 PM Reply


      • Sod’s Law Josh…..make Johnston 3/4 this afternoon….but as you’ve said nursery and sellers are tricky races to find your winners in. At least Spirit of Wezda didn’t win!

        Well done on another Tip of the day…amazing how a couple of winners can turn things around. Great stuff….

        Best

        Martin

        Martin 13/08/15 3:55 PM Reply


        • Yep, as stand alone horses the only one I would have maybe backed was the last one, but at least they were not 8/1+ etc. Difficult to pick right ones of his/fannings, but a good day for them. Yes winners help, to lift the mood if nothing else and overall stats looking healthy enough, a few unlucky seconds in that lot as well.

          Josh Wright 13/08/15 4:18 PM Reply


  • Boom!!! £20 @ 4/1 on BFair
    7/2 sp with Sky Bet

    Great stuff Josh !!!

    Keep em comin!!

    Joe 13/08/15 2:40 PM Reply


    • Good stuff Joe, I tend to save my booms for the 20/1+ winners haha, but after the recent run, why not..BOOOM indeed! I will try to keep them coming.

      Josh Wright 13/08/15 2:59 PM Reply


  • Well called josh , superb , thanks

    michael manning 13/08/15 2:42 PM Reply


  • Great winner josh dug deep at the finish ,

    Steve 13/08/15 2:42 PM Reply


    • Yep she has a great attitude, head bowed, ears back, grinding it out. Couldn’t fully understand why so weak in the market considering, well unbacked anyway. Second ran well but was handicapped to do so and she doesnt looks like she likes passing horses in front. Another rise may do for her but if he can find a small field where can dominate again, provided not an unexposed hot pot in there, I wouldnt be surprised if she went in again – revised mark wouldnt necessarily put me off as that attitude, at this level, is worth plenty.

      Josh Wright 13/08/15 3:02 PM Reply


  • Nice Call Josh , and thanks

    Philip 13/08/15 3:06 PM Reply


  • Nice one Josh, win and tricast well done,appreciate your hard work

    Grant 13/08/15 6:58 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh – two on the spin, you have definately cracked the game now (haha)

    Cheers

    Bob 14/08/15 1:01 AM Reply


    • Haha cheers Bob – I am not sure if I will ever feel like I have cracked this game, which is what makes it so challenging and fun!

      Josh Wright 14/08/15 6:15 AM Reply


Post A Reply