Some More Micro Angles

While researching today’s Tip of The Day and the success of Saeed Bin Suroor at Kempton with ‘All-Weather Switchers’ as I will call them, (horses running on the AW having ran on turf LTO) I thought it would be wise to see if I could find any others.

So, we are looking at All-Weather handicaps and horses that last ran on the Flat Turf in any race type. Importantly the record of the trainer must be better than if the horse ran on the AW last time out, as that would be no angle at all really.

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James Fanshawe 

  1. Kempton Handicaps Only
  2. Ran on Flat Turf LTO
  3. Any Odds
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(L) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 90 29 32.22 107.76 54 60 119.73 126.16 -20.86 46.61 1.78
2015 9 3 33.33 4.85 4 44.44 53.89 4.9 -10.76 -2.85 1.51
2014 23 5 21.74 8.5 12 52.17 36.96 10.77 -6.64 8.32 1.33
2013 15 5 33.33 17.25 9 60 115 18.1 -23.91 5.32 1.54
2012 16 4 25 22.33 11 68.75 139.56 30.97 -24.38 19.19 1.72
2011 18 7 38.89 32.25 12 66.67 179.17 36.05 -32.25 11.74 2.11
2010 9 5 55.56 22.58 6 66.67 250.89 25.37 -38.48 4.89 2.91

His stats with horses that ran on the AW last time out: 91 bets / 16 wins / 34 places / -15.4 SP / 17.5% SR

This would suggest this is a deliberate strategy and/or clearly horses coming from the flat may have been up against better opposition, and they find it easier reverting to the AW. Either way, this seems to be a decent ‘way in’ to Fanshawe’s Kempton handicappers. The place strike rate is quite brilliant and just placing £10 on every horse to place on Betfair Place SP would have won you £460 odd, minus commission.

He has had winners up to 16/1 and only 2 runners over this price, currently 0/2, 0 places. So, there are no massive priced horses skewing the profit figures either. It is currently performing 78% above market expectations so there is some way to go before these runners become over bet it would seem, and the profits could be much bigger taking early evening/morning prices.

ELIZONA is a qualifier in the 8.10 – 7/1. I am hoping she doesn’t win as she is taking on my Tip of The Day horse and I could do with a winner. She looks moderate and gets a 7lb claimer today (he is 0/4, 0 places so far in short career). She has also tried track and trip twice before and only ran moderately. I would like to think Tylicki would be on if today was the day.

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Amanda Perrett 

  1. All-Weather Handicaps Only (all tracks) 
  2. Ran Flat Turf or National Hunt LTO 
  3. Running in SAME class or UP 1 class from LTO
  4. 12/1 or under 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 66 20 30.3 49.38 30 45.45 74.82 59.06 12.75 1.93
2015 4 0 0 -4 0 0 -100 -4 -4 0
2014 11 4 36.36 15.5 6 54.55 140.91 19.64 4.95 2.42
2013 16 6 37.5 9.13 10 62.5 57.06 10.81 5.42 1.91
2012 14 5 35.71 11.5 6 42.86 82.14 12.02 -1.96 2.13
2011 9 1 11.11 -1 2 22.22 -11.11 -0.78 -0.92 0.86
2010 12 4 33.33 18.25 6 50 152.08 21.36 9.27 2.61

Her stats with such runners are pretty solid.

Those that ran on the AW LTO are 91 bets / 12 wins / 43 places/ 17.5% SR / AE 0.72. 

She has only had 2 qualifiers that ran over jumps LTO but one of them won so I will leave them in for now. 

She isnt’t very good at placing class droppers it would appear: 38 bets / 6 wins / 15.76& SR / AE 0.87. 

These are obviously small samples but for now sticking to those running in the same class or progressing and moving up a class from last run looks important. The market is also a decent guide with her runners it would appear. 

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HANDICAP DEBUTANT TRAINER

Finally, Rae Guest caught the eye the other day when I was flicking through some stats as he has a very good record with handicap debutants on turf and AW. 

RAE GUEST 

  1. Handicap 
  2. Horse Runs in a Handicap: 0 
  3. 14/1 or under 
  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 99 32 32.32 83.29 51 51.52 84.13 110.04 33.79 1.83
2015 11 4 36.36 0.79 5 45.45 7.18 1.49 -2.35 1.56
2014 20 5 25 10.17 10 50 50.85 15.88 6.28 1.38
2013 23 8 34.78 21.75 11 47.83 94.57 27.12 9.85 1.93
2012 30 11 36.67 40.33 19 63.33 134.43 52.36 17.05 2.14
2011 9 2 22.22 1.75 3 33.33 19.44 1.46 0.58 1.42
2010 6 2 33.33 8.5 3 50 141.67 11.72 2.38 3.17

They are rather impressive and solid stats I think. He is clearly good at hiding a horses true ability and placing them in their first handicap with a bit in hand. It will be interesting to see if he can carry this on in the next few years. 

He does have the odd monster price winner but they are hard to find. His stats over 14/1 are: 51 bets / 3 wins / 8 places / +43 SP / +105 BFSP.  If you are happy to back a lot of losers then just back them all to BFSP may be the way forwards as they have been profitable over time – but you wouldn’t want to miss that big priced winner! 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

3 Comments

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  • On the Raedar, now, Josh!

    Chris 12/08/15 12:24 PM Reply


  • Hi..
    Rae guest has one tomorrow , has ran in a hcap before for gosden but not for guest, does this count

    Ant 13/08/15 9:53 PM Reply


    • Ah yes he is on my shortlist to delve into in the morning ing. That horse is Ella’s Honour, the only qualifier on my system and she has only run in maidens. If ran in handicap before then won’t qualify, but you know what will happen now!

      Josh Wright 13/08/15 9:58 PM Reply


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