Saturday 08/08/15 (inc Tip of Day)

 

TIP OF THE DAY…

Clement should probably have won yesterday but in a game of fine margins he just lost out in a close third, finishing with plenty of running left in him. Yes he blew the start, but he does that every now and then and I knew that before betting. I dont think that cost him the race as he has won from being held up before, and was soon back in touch. You need luck for any hold up horse and he didnt get going soon enough, and wasnt hard ridden up inside due to some traffic, for quite some time. That is racing, and back over CD, in a weaker race, and maybe a bit more pace, he will be going in again soon. I am never one to moan at jockeys as it all evens out in the end – I have backed and will back winners who hold on from the front and benefit from unlucky rivals in behind – and i certainly wont moan at a 7lb claimer – he has that for a reason. He was a good bet at 8s, and i think the best horse on the day lost, but that is racing. With a bit more luck, a bit more bottle from me, Tip of The Day could be +15 or more points in the last 3 days, but it isnt, so an official winner would be nice…

1.50 Haydock 

Si Senor 4/1 – 1 point win 4/1 (general) 

 

The way in…

Ed Vaughan doesn’t mess around when he sends a horse up here, with a record of 4/8, 5 places with handicappers since 2009. It is a long way to come from Newmarket with just one horse in the box and I have a feeling he could win this rather well. In any case, I thin we will get a run for our money. 

He has a decent record after a break and is 2/3 after breaks of 60+ days, so that is no concern. He will be fit. What caught the eye was his penultimate run, last September, as a 3yo. He should have won. He was the only horse cantering a few furlongs out, Graham Lee motionless. But he couldnt get a run. Tried up the inside but could never go through with it, switched wide but with horses in front Lee was a bit hesitant. When he was clear he ran on well but by that time the race had gone, the line had arrived, and Lee was very sympathetic. The horse is still a could be anything type and will have matured further since that run. His run at Kempton LTO was after 250+ days, so that one may have been needed. I also found it interesting that Kingscote rides here – he has a very solid record at this track and I suspect that is one of the reasons he is on. 

There are lots of things that point to a good run here and hopefully he gets a bit more luck and starts to show some real progression on turf. The trainer hasn’t rushed him which to me suggests they think he could be quite handy. 

The opposition…

Well it is clearly a competitive Saturday handicap as most of them are, at least in this class and above. No Poppy is 0/14, 1 place on Good to Firm and really does like some juice in the ground. Secret Art is 0/10, 3 places on Good to Firm and it may be lively enough for him. He is 0/4, 0 places from a rating this high to date. Balducci ticks a few boxes and is 2/3 over CD but his last two handicap runs have been poor and he shouldnt get his own way up front here. Yourartisonfire is a live danger as the market suggests. He has been is decent form,especially for SDS, and a big run here would be no shock. The selection is open to much more improvement mind. Eutropius likes winning and had a decent strike rate. He appears big in the market at 16s, (all wins 8/1 or below so far) but ticks a lot of the race conditions, although this is his first time here. All wins so far have been when returning within 30 days and his speed figure, for a more exposed horse, isnt great compared to some of these. Early Morning is also unexposed and has been running well, so he would not be a shock winner in conditions that suit. Whats left of the rest have a few questions to answer between them. 

All in all you could give realistic chances to a handful in here but with the stats and that eye catching run here last September, combined with how much improvement this horse is open to, and an interesting jockey booking (to my eye at least) I thought 4s was fair enough, and with any luck he makes that look a silly price come 1.55. 

***

AUGUST TRAINER 

Chris Wall  – 4.35 Haydock – Belvoir Devor  – 8/1 or so. Has been off the track a while so the market should guide as to fitness. He is unexposed in what looks an open/poor quality race on paper. With Baker up they are 4/8, 6 places in last 30 days. 

***

The Shortlist 

From my shortlist the most interesting were…

-Keatley at Ayr – where his record is now 6/13, 9 places with handicappers. He runs 4 again here today and after my last effort of picking the only one that didnt win, I thought I would leave alone. I suspect a couple will go close, and there are a few in here from last time as well, but I was happy to swerve identifying which ones, from a canny stable! 

– Roger Charlton is 8/34, 14 places at Ascot and runs Acolyte in the 3.50, who is also his only runner at the track. 

-David Simcock is 5/19, 7 places with ahandicap debutants in the last year, and runs Cross Examine in the 5.20 Ling. He is only 1/11 at Lingfield with such runners but any market support could be significant. 

-Likewise Rae Guest has an impressive record in recent years with handicap debutantes. 22/68, 28 places in last 5 years. (8/27, 9 places last 2 years) and he runs Secret Palace in the 5.50 – who would not need much ability to win this race. That is a decent enough sample for such a trainer angle and at some point next week will dig to see if there are any angles to improve on those figures above as there could be a nice little micro system there – although the raw figures are very good. 

****

RACE PREVIEW…

3.05 Newmarket 

Jacob Black – 1 point win 17/2 (William Hill) 8/1 general (bet365/SkyBet/Betvictor)

Majestic Moon 1 point win 14/1 (general- Skybet/betfred/PP/WH)

 

I will keep this fairly short as time is getting on. This is a cracking race, that I have a feeling will work out quite well. There are a lot of unexposed progressive types in here that could end up being quite good. That should mean it is a race just to watch but you know me and I can rarely resist such races. It looks like something from the top 6 in the market should be winning this. 

Jacob Black has tried to lead all the way over 8f at Sandown in two very hot handicaps that have been working out extremely well with winners coming out left right and centre, esp the penultimate race. Given his early speed and liking to dominate i found this drop down to 7f interesting. Tom Quelly has ridden Majestic Moon on all of his last runs but switches to Jacob Black and has been riding a few winners for the trainer. If he can show the same speed and get the lead here he clearly has the stamina to last and this uphill finish may help him to cling on. Given his likely running style and the strength of his recent form, 17/2 looked good to me to find out. 

Majestic Moon – while I dont think he is the most likely winner – I do think 14/1 is too big and if there were 4 places may have had an EW dart. He is 2/3 3 places over CD, 2/7 in this level of C2, 3/6, 5 places when returning 8-15 days, 3/7, 4 places on Good to Firm. He can lead or track the pace and should be in the right place. His mark is creeping up but there could be more to come from him and with all of the above 142 just felt too big. 

Rene Mathis owes us nothing having won for us at 25/1 in the Bunbury Cup. He carries a lot of weight here against unexposed horses and is running from a career high mark. He will give it a good go but there could just be a few to go past him late. He could win again but it would be some performance and 11/2 was about right to me. Buckstay doesnt like winning, and I dont like those types. He keeps knocking on the door but not winning, in some good races. A repeat of one of those recent runs may be good enough for this hold up performer. 5/1 is short enough all things considered. Mambo Paradise is very interesting and maybe worth a saver. She ran well last time being held up, and could race more prominently here. She is progressive and needs to prove her class but looks hardy and if over that last run will run a decent race. 6s is ok. Royal Seal is also unexposed but needs a bit more against a few in form sorts and needs to get head back in front. 

It is unlikely i haven’t mentioned the winner of this race but there is a chance one of the others goes well, but on what they have done to date, and their profiles, I was happy to leave them. 

We should get some excitement from these two and it will be a race that works out well I suspect. 

Good Luck, that is all for today. 

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Ouch , but that’s racing , none of them looked like winning, hopefully a change of luck next week .Onwards and upwards boys

    michael manning 08/08/15 2:14 PM Reply


    • Yes I was due a rut and am in the middle of one! That is how it goes when you generally play 4/1+ and have a SR around 20%, plenty of losers. I won’t be changing approach and it will turn around again at some point! Yes all 3 faded when asked a question having travelled well. Neither winner a surprise but wouldn’t have backed Buckstay at those odds,0/17 flat, but maybe he will get confidence from getting head in front. Blog is finding winners, I am just not putting any of them up officially!

      Josh Wright 08/08/15 2:24 PM Reply


  • Every confidence in you josh , sure you’ve been through similar , and as long you’re confident of changing it around that’s good enough for me

    michael manning 08/08/15 2:30 PM Reply


    • Indeed, losing runs are part of the game, but over the stretch it is about profit, and I need to look again but blog is around +80 points up I think. Outside of tip of day and I generally playing in most competitive of Saturday handicaps, they are not easy! Shortlists have generally been spot on, and over time the pin lands on enough winners!

      Josh Wright 08/08/15 2:43 PM Reply


  • Must be more frustrating for you , all the time/studying and the end result is so disappointing.But who said it was easy eh .Enjoy yer weekend .

    michael manning 08/08/15 2:43 PM Reply


    • No not really. I don’t like putting up losers nor backing them, but if you want to win long term you need to put work in from my experience , and you have to put same effort in every time. I enjoy trying to solve the puzzle so I always looking forward to the next one!

      Josh Wright 08/08/15 2:45 PM Reply


  • 16 bets without an actual winner as in 1st …worrying if you miss a winner at a big price could make the difference between being well in profit or in deficit ..about 14% strike rate on winners i.e 1sts since the 6th july ..3/1 winner the other day that wasn’t put up as an actual bet ..wouldn’t mind the odd 2/1 3/1 winner even if the R.O.I was down a couple per cent overall ..means confidence wich is underated in my opinion ..30 good quality races at goodwood why play the big handicaps ..2 bets in the same race..think your record in big meetings is pretty poor ..playing big handicaps with 16 plus runners can be dangerous sometimes with bad luck wrong draw etc ..

    harry 08/08/15 2:56 PM Reply


    • That’s a bit harsh Harry. I didn’t follow Josh today, in fact I didn’t look at blog until 2pm. You don’t have to back his advice but he does find winners proven by his overall profit. Yes, the big priced winners have inflated the profit and if they hadn’t have gone in the overall record may look at lot different. But fair play to Josh for putting up those big priced winners and the quality of the write ups giving his reasoning proves it wasn’t a fluke. If you read the blog regularly my suggestion is to back the ones you agree with and leave or even lay what you don’t agree with. Works for me : )

      Jim 08/08/15 3:18 PM Reply


      • Hit the nail on the head there Jim, that is partly why my reasoning as it is, to make it easier for you to disagree with me! 🙂 And the blog isn’t just tips etc with the micro angles, systems etc.

        Josh Wright 08/08/15 3:24 PM Reply


    • 1. yes…my record in big festivals before Goodwood was atrocious by my own admission and I needed to change approach.
      2. I only focus on handicaps in general, not ‘high quality’ races, hence the limited focus at Goodwood. I don’t have time to get to grips with all race types.
      3. The blog is still just over +15 points up in nearly a month. For this blog I would be happy with +15 points a month on average.
      4. I am not a professional punter. This blog and official bets are a window into some of the bets I place. What you do with ifo is up to you, but the profits speak for themselves since November.
      5. You are quite correct in your big winners point. They make all the difference. And somfar tge profit levels in those big srpinta is decent.I don’t miss them as I back them all, and back myself over time, not in a 3 week or even 8 week snapshot.
      6. Tip of the Day is a trial , and should be treated as such , it may turn out I am rubbish over time with that approach.
      7. You are more than welcome to put up horses you fancy on any day in the comments, and to critique and of my tips with reasons, and what you fancy in same race etc.

      Josh Wright 08/08/15 3:22 PM Reply


      • Hi Josh – Not aware that anyone gets charged or made to follow any tips/advice you put on the website. Suggest the usual moaners disappear ! For the record, I find all of your write ups extremely interesting, especially to a hack like me – long may you continue. Best to remember : Tanzeel (25/7 @ 7/1 BOG) & Heaven Guest (25/7 @ 10/1 BOG) when the bullets start to fly Josh.

        Best Wishes

        Bob 09/08/15 8:35 AM Reply


  • Ohhh – and sorry forgot, 25/7 Balty Boys @25/1 BOG was a close second.

    Cheers

    Bob 09/08/15 8:38 AM Reply


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