Tip of the Day: 07/08/15

Hmmm. I could well be accused of bottling it yesterday with Jan De Heem who ran out an easy enough winner, and was widely available at 3/1 at the time of posting, after the R4. It is easy when they win but maybe 3s was ok with hindsight and I know I was confident that he would run a big race and convinced myself he was the most likely winner – and as you know I backed him accordingly at 4s (R425p). A Class 6 Apprentice Handicap were good reasons to be cautious but given his stand out chance against a mediocre bunch maybe not enough to be put off at 3/1. I hope some of you ignored my doubts and backed him. Anyway, no time to dwell as that thinking sets me up for today’s trip to the sand…

 

4.10 Lingfield

Clement 1 point win 8/1 (Bet365/BoyleSports/StanJames/Coral/William Hill) 15/2, 7/1 general (being backed) *

 

*since posting under 20 minutes ago (9.10) he has been backed into 9/2 / 4/1 across the board. Very strange and I haven’t seen that before. It wont be the weight of our money, unless a few hundred of you suddenly bet at the same time as soon as I posted (i do need to check readership stats) but that hasn’t happened with any other Tip of The Day horses, and I am no Hugh Taylor! Maybe a big tipster has put him up, or like me, many people saw his obvious chance and that 8/1 was too big. Hopefully he drifts out, but if not I will declare at 9/2 (PP, Ladbrokes, Coral), if he wins. I do hope connections have got on at a decent price as if not you never know what could happen at this lowly level, if today is the day 🙂  4/1, or under really does feel too short at this level or racing, but then I thought that yesterday as well! 

A 0-60 All-Weather contest hopefully indicates some of the struggles I was having finding a confident selection today. In truth it was nearly a no bet day wen I thought I would go through the Lingfield card with the brilliant Instant Expert tab, part of the Geegeez racecards. I have made a ‘fair bit’ on crappy AW races (not Kempton), mainly when sitting in front of ATR, bored with my tablet in hand, betting £2.5s and £5s for ‘fun’.(not very often, but every now and then) The racing is usually awful and with the instant expert tab it is easy to see if one horse stands out, they don’t all win of course but there have been a handful of 8/1+ winners that pay for a round at the pub etc. Much like Jan De Heem yesterday Clement stands out as an obvious bet, with a line of amber and green (good) against a sea of red (not so good). 

That wasn’t enough though as I did remember seeing his trainer on the trainer stats report and sure enough in the last 14 days he is 4/11, 7 places with handicappers, and 6/22, 10 places in the last 30 days. So he is in form at least. 

The horse..

Well he is probably a bit of a rogue but is 2/4, 3 places over CD, his last run over CD was on 28th December 2014, when he won with ease, from a higher mark as well. The trainer is in better form than when he was last running as well, and hopefully he can feed off a positive mood around the yard. He wears a visor for the second time and maybe it took him a race to get used to. It could be he hates the headgear and if so we may not get a run for our money, but we will have to trust the trainer and assume he has worked in it at least, and it wont be such a shock this time. He is also a slow starter sometimes (unless it wasnt his day?!) so hopefully he can be a bit better here. There is some pace in the race and this lot are so poor it may not matter. 

The opposition…

Well they are an awful bunch who are 1/55 between them over 7f and excluding the selection are 3/84 in Class 6. A lot of those stats are from Chandryaan but you get the picture. Now, there are a few unexposed types who must surely be better than what they have shown to date. 

Sumeida has been awful, and is only that price because of the trainer, and maybe because he wears the first time tongue tie. That could well make all the difference, but he could also not be very good. 5/2 is short enough for a horse who has finished 0668, beaten miles. Now, this is his second handicap run,and he wont need much ability to win this, but you are putting lots of faith in the tongue tie at that price. I couldnt back him, but of course wont be head scratching if he wins. 

Indominatable Spirit is a danger having led all the way over further LTO. He is improving but my word that was an awful race he won LTO for 3yo only. They were collectively 1/44 in C6 before the race, and 0/31 over 8f. So, that form has to be questioned but he could improve again. He should lead and is the pace angle, hopefully he goes too hard, and helps set it up for Clement. 

Deftera Lad ran ok last time out and if building on that could run well, but is 0/8, 1 place in career to date and the jockey is inexperienced, searching for his first winner, 0/8, 1 place. He has a line of blue on oddschecker but surely if you are pulling off a gamble you put up a more experienced pro. I couldn’t back him, but again could be better than what he has shown to date. 

The rest are just poor and haven’t shown enough on the track to warrant backing. Bookmaker is 1/13 on AW and 0/9, 3 places over 7f, all wins at 6f to date, so stamina a concern. Big City Boy is 0/27 in career, and 0/20 on AW. No thanks. Ms Eboracum is interesting due to the trainer and he well may find the key at some point but she is now 0/10, 2 places in career. She has placed a couple of times on AW recently and a run like that may be good enough in this company, but I dont like backing increasingly exposed maidens. Tranquil Glenn is unexposed but is on his 3rd different trainer already. He is 0/4, 0 places in career to date and hasnt shown anything. Chandryaan is 3/41 on AW, doesnt win very often, and is 0/16, 4 places at Lingfield, 0/9, 3 places CD. 

So, it looks like our trainer has found a very weak race for Clement to get his head back in front. There are plenty of positives to overlook the fact this is an awful Class 6 race. I would be disappointed if we didnt get a run for our money here.

***

 

AUGUST TRAINER

Johnny G runs Timba in the 7.55 Newmarket. She will be fit, and is also a 90 Day Trainer selection of mine,and also came up due to the trainers record with handicap debutants. Statistically, based on the trainers approach, she has a lot going for her and I have had 1.5 points on at 7/2 (two micro systems combined that I have been following systematically) 

***

The shortlist…

There were plenty of nearly bets today but for one reason or another I didn’t pick them as main bets, but I dare say I will have a few 1/4, 1/2 points on them…firstly..

Ed De Giles is 4/11 at Musselburgh..he sends Croquembouche up there today in the 4pm. The good people of Coral let me have £7.15 of my £10 bet on him at 14s. (B*****s. But at least they are happy for Terry -was it Terry?- to lose £2k on the machines, that he probably stole from somewhere – and to think Coral wanted to open a shop near a YMCA, money grabbing buggers) – that will mean little if you didn’t watch Britain At The Bookies – still undecided on what I though about those programmes. 

He should front run, but there are real stamina doubts, and slight niggle over fitness, and he isn’t proven at the class. So, you can see why i left him, but I couldnt resist something on at 14s as he should lead for a long way, and it is an unknown whether he will stay – he has yet to prove he wont – albeit he is a bit exposed now, also from a career high mark! 

We were then getting into the reals of unexposed horses, mainly 2 year olds.

-Fahey and Bell are 4/9, 6 places at Musselburgh with handicappers. Their Cotton Camera looks interesting in the 2pm, but is looking exposed in the context of this race, against many more well fancied horses.But you could make valid excuses for his last two handicap runs and with the best speed figure to date could well out run his odds. It is a 2yo nursery at the end of they day,so extreme caution. In the same race G Bravery is 2/7, 3 places with handicap debutants in the last 2 years and has Aizu in here. He could go well also in an open race. 

– Gosden is 5/11 at Haydock with his 2yo debutants and runs Foundation in the 6.25. He has been well found at around 9/4 and looks set to run a big race. Not the type of odds, in the context of this race, that I want to taking. I dont know if this is the time of year he starts sending out his better 2yos, but he seems to do well in this month with all his other runners. 

-Likewise Ed Walker is 3/11, 4 palces with 2yo debutants and runs Best of Oregon in the 6.45. Money is coming and given his other 2yo winner was at the track, that could be significant. Worth a small tickle at 12/1 for me. 

-Mr Foley is 2/5, 3 places with horses he gets from other yards. He doesn’t get many but usually improves them it would appear when making their first run for him. He runs Talsara in the 8.45 Tipperary. Coming up against an odds on Thousand Stars, and at 28/1 maybe he stands no chance, but I will watch with interest. 

-Finally, Chammings is 7/21, 11 places at Lingfield, 5/12, 8 places with all handicappers in the last 30 days. He is also 2/2 with this jockey at the track and runs Foxford in the 4.40 Ling. Now, he has shown nothing at all, has no form of much note, and has many questions to answer. For those reasons he was never going to be a tip, but on the stats alone maybe worth a second glance at a price, in what is a typical poor race.  And maybe the positive form of the stable will run off on Foxford. LITTLE comes up well on the instant expert tab and could run well.

That is all for today, happy punting, 

Josh 

 

 

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5 Comments

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  • Hi Josh….it certainly is being backed….just had a check on oddschecker (just after nine in the morning) and Clement is generally 9/2 to 5/1. Only one firm offering 8/1 (Stanjames).

    On a more general note….really like the tip of the day and shortlist details…your analysis is always interesting/informative to read (whether they win or lose).

    Best

    Martin

    Martin 07/08/15 8:16 AM Reply


  • Luckily I backed him at 8/1 last night but weirdly I am less confident now.

    David 07/08/15 9:43 AM Reply


    • My tipping isn’t that bad David 🙂 haha. He hasn’t been put up by Alex Hammond has he, that would be a sign of death. Hopefully he may drift out a bit. He chance is fairly obvious if you look at race, so we shall see. A very poor run would make me suspicious.

      Josh Wright 07/08/15 10:04 AM Reply


  • Never backed it , a little short for my liking , surely with a better start it would have won though

    michael manning 07/08/15 4:11 PM Reply


    • Wasn’t the start IMO, he does that I knew that before backing him. He was soon in touch and swinging turning in, got going too late, minor traffic inside, if had gone wide down outside may have been counting a decent profit but that is racing,game of fine margins. It was a good bet at 8s and he had won just past the line,had a fair bit of horse left I think. Clearly start didn’t help and hard to know what track position he would have taken if getting away on terms. Onto the next one.

      Josh Wright 07/08/15 4:22 PM Reply


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