Tip of the Day: 06/08/15

First things first , there is NO tip today. There is a lot of racing today but so much of it is dross I couldn’t confidently find anything to back at a price i was happy with. With Sligo off yesterday there was no damage done. 

Chris Wall had two winners yesterday to get the August Trainers rolling. Windy Citi drifted from 5/1 to 8/1. I didn’t back the other as the price was short enough for me but he also got the job done. The other two drifted out of range and ran as such. It is always easy to say after they win but he would have made a good tip of the day, especially with the trainer/jockey combo. Doh. But, either way I hope some you backed him anyway. 

August Qualifier 

Makin runs Lucy The Painter in the 3.10 Haydock.

She won for us at Ffos Las last time as a ‘tip of the day’ selection in an all age handicap and is 11/4 here. I have had 1/2 a point on as she is improving and she is a qualifier-  I have backed all of Makins so far. This is a better race, and I am never one to trust any form at Ffos Las but she should run a decent enough race. But, it is a 3yo only class 5 handicap and isnt the kind of race I want to be ‘tipping’ in from now on as there are a few too many unknowns and this race type is not a strength of mine to date, 11/4 is short enough as well for me in the context of this race. His runners so far in August have been running appallingly and hopefully just one of those things, rather than a dip in form in the yard.

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Shortlist 

I wanted to tip JanDe Heem in the 5.30. He was 4/1 generally, but there has since been a withdrawal and a 25pR4, his price 3/1 or below across the board. (still 4s with betfred and totesport) The trainer is 3/5, 4 places in the last month, and 2/5, 3 places at the track in the last 365 days. This horse won over CD LTO and is the only horse to have won a race in the last 5 runs, and most of these dont win very often. If you are a Geegeez Gold subscriber click on the instant expert tab and you can see why the horse catches the eye. The rest of the field are very mediocre indeed. But, at the back of my mind is the fact this is a C6 Apprentice Handicap, with unpredictable animals at best. 4s was maybe just acceptable, below that I am not so sure. I have backed him (at 4s before R4) as if he runs like he did LTO he should go very close indeed. But I wouldnt be shocked if a horse that had no recent form burst into life. It is that kind of grade, and that kind of race. 

Teosroyal was ‘interesting’ in the 3.30 Wolvs. In what looks a poor race, with the recent maiden winners having won poor races, this horse has an impressive speed figure against these. She makes her handicap debut for a trainer that is 2/6 with such runners at the track. She could also get an easy lead here. She has been highly tries at class 1 and class 2 level, clearly not good enough. She then won a weak C5 maiden and then stepped back up to listed level. Now, she is 20/1, but I have seen worse 20/1 shots. There are a couple of really unexposed ones in here from powerful yards, and one of them will probably win. But, I have parted with £5 (1/4 point for me) for interest. (NOT an official blog bet, info is there for your own consideration) 

Finally Trafalgar Rock caught the eye in the 5.20 South for Johnston and SDS. They are 5/16, 6 places when teaming up here in handicaps. However, the race is very poor, and the horse hasnt done much to date either. I couldnt back him with much confidence. It could be that he has been crying out for this surface, and the race wont take much winning. Johnston does have a solid 25% SR at the track, although you would have lost money backing all of them so need to pick carefully. But, he is only 4, and nothing would be a total shock in this race. 11/2 is probably fair and I am yet to decide whether I want to have an interest bet.

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IMPORTANT….

well maybe not so important, but this message is for people new to the blog,(following a couple of comments yesterday) or who are not aware of my approach etc…

1. The whole point of this blog is to provide something of interest and value, as well as to be profitable. In order to prove profitability I have tried to be as open an honest about results as possible, so that you can judge for yourself whether to back my selections etc. An ‘OFFICIAL’ bet, so to speak, that gets recorded in the blog results, is when I put a staking amount next to a horses name. Ie X – 1 point win (Odds/bookmakers) This is a tip, and if you so wish you can then read why I fancy it, and make up your own mind. Or, if you dont care about such things can just back the horse, confident that the blog is nearing 80 points profit since November. (there is a recent blog post detailing results to date, just flick through a few pages) I try and look for value and, in big race previews at least, I often tip at big prices. That means long losing runs. It means backing many more losers than winners. But I am more bothered about profit, not winners. As I said, all results are there for you to see, and you can use them to make your own decision about what you do with my advice. I bet £20 a point, and EVERY horse I put up with a staking amount is backed as such. 

2. Information I provide,as above, is for your benefit. The tip of the day process takes between 1.5-2 hours from start to finish. I could as easily not bother with writing up the shortlist etc, and not writing so much in general, it would save me time. But, I would prefer an engaged readership and I know many of you like reading through my ramblings and making your own informed decision. I also think it is important that you know why you are backing something – well I like to know why I am backing something – which is why i go through in some depth why I fancy a horse, and my concerns/dangers. The micro angles etc again are for interest, and to highlight potential profitable approaches. 

3. ODDS…why you would not bother opening a handful of online accounts is beyond me.(unless you dont bet online in general) For £5-£20 punters (that includes me) taking the best price can be worth hundreds of pounds extra come the end of the year. I have accounts with Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, Totesport, Boylesports (no longer let me bet after about 3 winners I think), BetVictor, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Coral (restricted), William Hill, Betfair Exchange, Betfair Sportsbook (restricted) and Betbright. There are others I should probably open accounts with. I never place a bet without looking at Oddschecker. Taking 5/1 when you could get 6/1 or 7/1 elsewhere is ridiculous, and you are just throwing money away in my opinion. 

When I put up the odds next to an ‘official tip’ they are always available with at least 2 bookmakers above (exc BF sportsbook,Boyle,Betbright, totesport) and I check to make sure prices are available some time after posting. I do not pull wool over your eyes when recording the results etc, and if you want to take lower odds than are available that is up to you. I wouldn’t know my results to betting at SP, but they would be much worse than they are. 

FINALLY…ALL posts that have an official bet are up by 10am daily. Sometimes this may include a post saying that a bet is on its way (which happens, esp on Saturday’s) but if you check the blog just after 10 it will be clear if there will be an official bet. For big race previews etc I will generally email out. But, I don’t like bombarding you with emails so it is always best to check the blog. That way you should never miss a winner.

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As always, good luck with any bets you place today, 

Josh 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

12 Comments

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  • Thanks for the effort that you put into this Josh, I for one greatly appreciate it!

    David 06/08/15 9:05 AM Reply


  • Hello josh great post again I also appreciate what you do and look forward to your posting everyday many thanks

    Steve 06/08/15 9:12 AM Reply


  • Win or lose Josh, many thanks for sharing your thoughts

    Terry 06/08/15 10:36 AM Reply


  • great stuff as usual josh

    ant 06/08/15 10:46 AM Reply


  • Been a great source of free information and some cracking systems since i started reading back in november! Gotta say i’ve learnt alot from the blog, the most important one being don’t go mad at the festivals lol And for a free blog thats not constantly trying to sell you crap it’s pretty damn good!!!! Also introducing me to horseracebase has been awsome

    james 06/08/15 10:50 AM Reply


    • Haha Cheers James…yes my approach to Festivals and official bets has been abject at best to date,or was…approach all wrong, too many bets,not enough focus/research . Goodwood was better with +11 from limited ,but more focussed involvement. I am learning! 🙂 yep HRB a gold mine if you enjoy that kind of approach.

      Josh Wright 06/08/15 11:01 AM Reply


  • I echo all the sentiments above. But just to clarify for Harry and may be a few others? (I won’t be doing this every day don’t worry). There is no bet today that counts towards Josh’s published profit records. However he is having a bet on Lucy the painter in the 3.10 at haydock and teosroyal in the 3:30 at Wolverhampton. He has flagged up Jande hem in the 5:30 and trafalgar Rock in the 5:20. However if you back any of these 4 horses and lose it WILL NOT count towards Josh’s results. They may of course all win and he may have backed all 4 and make a pot full of cash. The choice is yours. Good luck to all.

    Josh please correct if I have stated anything wrong.

    Jim 06/08/15 11:12 AM Reply


    • Spot on Jim! Much like how I won’t be including Windy City as an 8/1 winner in official results. For numerous reasons I could not officially tip 1 point on those horses listed, but with the info provided readers may now look at those races and make up their own mind. They also have the stats from the August Trainers post to decide how to approach Makins runners, either systematically or on a horse by horse basis.

      Josh Wright 06/08/15 11:32 AM Reply


  • i would also like to reiterate a previous comment on here that it is the festivals ie goodwood that hits punters i the pocket , far easier finding simple selections in the bread and butter races at mundane meetings

    ant 06/08/15 11:35 AM Reply


    • I agree to a point. My approach has been more of the problem personally, and for this blog. I agree in general you need to do well at the mundane meetings..although class 5/6 dross is challenging. The blog has been very profitable for big race previews, but that is just one or two races a week where I can give the attention they deserve. With festivals every race is like one of those big race previews, and I simply have not put the time in they deserve. I was more targeted at Ascot but just didnt do very well! Goodwood was better with only a handful of races covered. Cheltenham was a problem of decision making. I came out in profit and there were plenty of winners on the blog and from the micri systems..i just picked the wrong ones to ‘advise’ or lacked confidence in ones that went on to win. Always room for improvement in this game!

      Josh Wright 06/08/15 12:34 PM Reply


  • I am a newcomer Josh and I like your ramblings and the way you write if newbies don’t like anything they can always go and pay for worse services

    KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK THANKS MATE

    Brian 06/08/15 4:37 PM Reply


  • Keep up the good work Josh – I thoroughly enjoy reading your Daily Tips (et-al) and Cloud 7 & Windy Citi did well on Tuesday on what turned out to be an otherwise barren day.

    Cheers

    Bob 07/08/15 12:39 AM Reply


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