Tip of the Day 03/08/15

Firstly…There will be NO BET today. I simply cannot find anything that I could ‘tip’ with confidence, or that I would happily put £20 of my own money on, so it will be a no bet day. I don’t want to advise for the sake of it. The ‘shortlist’ is below for info.

Running Total. 22 bets / 5 wins / 11 places (inc wins) / + 12 points

A quick word on Pearl Acclaim… I have just re watched the race having watched it live on a big screen from Newmarket on Friday and it is as bad as I remember. Without doubt he is a notebook horse, and either Dandy is plotting or it was just an ‘unlucky’ ride. I expected him to race handy but he got stuck behind horses and from 2f out he was the only jockey not moving – he had so much horse under him and was travelling like the best horse in the race. It looked like he tried to get out and go around horses but there wasn’t much room and well within the final furlong the jockey probably decided he wasn’t going to get up so he ‘stopped’ riding. He was moving his hands vigorously but to my untrained eye he wasn’t exactly pushing the horse out. I dont blame him, by that late stage I don’t think he would have placed and that is one of those things that happens in sprints – to my eye he decided to look after the horse for another day when he realised he wasn’t getting to the leaders, and I dont think he picked up the whip once. I am more annoyed he didn’t give the horse a better chance by having him near the front end from the off. Anyway, he ran as if he was still in form and I will be watching his next few runs with interest – I expect to get my money back, with interest, on him some point soon. 

***

The shortlist.

-G Deacon has a great record at Windsor with handicappers…4/10, 6 places. He runs Moon Trip and Eseej in the 8.30. It is a ladies amateur race and both horses come here after lengthy breaks. Moon Trip is 0/4, 0 places after breaks of 60 days+ and the other is a 10yo. I was just guessing a bit too much with these, but there is enough there to suggest they could go close if fit. It looks open, and these races can come down to which horse gets the best ride. I couldn’t be confident on either, but I wont be surprised if one or both run well. 

-Normille and Carberry are 2/3 at Carlisle, and they team up with Remember Rocky in the 6.15 who is 2/2 over CD. That was interesting but in another Ladies Amateur race I couldnt be overly confident. The horse looks to be shade high in the weights as well -(0/6, 2 places OR61+) but then again this is the kind of race where normal handicapping may not matter as much – all race conditions fine and again there will be no shock here if he runs his race – but, just enough doubt there. 

-Final race of interest was Celtic Sixpence in the 3.30 Notts. Trainer and Jockey are 2/7, 3 places at the track and the horse won well over CD lto – earning a rather impressive speed figure which is much the best in here by some way. She just likes to get on with it and has stamina over much further. The stalls are in the centre I think but the jockey could bump her straight out and over to the near side rail if they are not too far away. I think he will play catch me if you can and I have had 1/2 point on at 10s to see if he can stay there. The doubts – well she has been off the track for longer than ideal and that would concern me. There are a few others who like to press the pace, but who may not be able to lay up with her. Finally there are just a few too many fancied unexposed horses in here for my liking. Queen’s Pearl could be much better than these and pick them off late and there are a few more as well – Gold Waltze who we backed on here LTO returns but is effectively 13lbs higher than for that victory. I couldn’t resist a nibble at 10s but there are enough doubts for me not to be as confident as I like to be when having a full point on.

And that was it. I have been through all the cards, all the Geegeez reports, looked for pace, looked at sprint handicaps etc and there really isnt anything I could find that i could back with confidence. At some point I will put up two horses to make up for the blank day.

Good Luck with any bets you have today.

 

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

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  • Hello josh my sentiments entirely on pearl Acclaim got to be looking out for him next time.

    steve 03/08/15 8:17 AM Reply


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