Tip of the Day: 31/07/15

A never nearer third yesterday, backed from 5/1 into 10/3 SP. It was a decent ride on the winner by a jockey who knows the horse has plenty of stamina and the selection never managed to get in a blow – possibly confirming that he would be best over shorter. I know a couple of you also had a saver on the winner however it obviously goes down as another point loaned back to the bookies.

Running total (trial): 21 bets / 5 wins / 11 places (inc winners) / +13 points*

* ‘places’ is not dependent on price, simply those selections that have placed, for information only so that you can see how consistent, or not, the selections are running in general. Points Profit is calculated based on what I advise and the price I advise, which is always available with at least 2 bookmakers at the time of posting.

 

31/07/15

7.20 Musselburgh

Pearl Acclaim 16/1 – 1/2 point EW (Bet365, BV, StanJames) 14/1 general. 

 

No stats or anything, just the usual approach to my favourite race type on the flat – a sprint handicap. 

I am not quite sure what I have missed here or why on earth this horse is 16/1. To my eyes he looks a decent EW bet with only a couple of horses in here that are likely to trouble him, if he runs his race. 

If you ignored his last two runs he would be half this price, if not around the 5/1 mark. He is now 0/9, 1 place in Class 2. He is not a class 2 animal on all known form to date. At Ascot on his last start he was up there for the first 3f before fading quickly, suggesting he may have gone too hard or simply did not like the stiffness of the track. Either way I am always happy to overlook a run at Ascot, especially one that was against better opposition than today. 

This is only his 11th start for this trainer and arguably his win a couple of runs back (in this class over CD, in a big field sprint) was his first run for Nicholls in ideal conditions..5f, class 3, good ground or better. and race fit (had raced in them once before after 179 days off track) As a 5yo he is still open to improvement as a sprinter, especially for this trainer. He is a prominent racer too. Now i think the stalls will be in the middle here over 5f but I think he should be able to get over to the near side rail if he wishes, or they may stay as one group down the centre. He will be in the right place and can track the pace. He also can stay a bit further so should keep plugging away. A repeat of that run over CD a couple of starts ago should see him put up a decent effort, and I thought 16s was ridiculous. The ground should be fine, and I really don’t know what I have missed here. He could just be out of form again but I will take the chance on him bouncing back here at those odds. 

The opposition…

Shipyard could look generously priced at 7/2 and arguably he should be shorter. There will be pace in this race which he needs and although he did look tricky last time out he also looked progressive, and there could be any amount of improvement on only his second start for this trainer. He is stepping up in class but he should be thereabouts. 

Thorntoun Lady is the other progressive horse but she has won back to back C5 events and now steps up to C3. She could well improve again but that is a big leap at this level and I would want to see evidence she can handle it before backing her at around 11/2. Again, a big run would be no shock, if as progressive as she looks, but i dont like backing big class movers too often.

***

I couldn’t justify backing any of the rest on what I know to date. Master Bond is 0/3, 0 places in C3 handicaps and needs to prove his class, and is also 1/9 OR 81+. He has a bit to prove, which he may do, but he wont carry my money. 

Rita’s Boy is unexposed but doesn’t like winning. A string of 2s and 3s is not a good sign for him as a couple of times he has got his head in front only to be overhauled late on a he has also loomed up to a rival going better only to shirk the issue and not pass. For me there is a question over his attitude and while he will probably place he looks like a horse that could be easily out-battled. That could be an experience thing that may change at some point, but combined with the 84 day break, I was happy to leave alone.

Rusty Rocket looks better with cut in the ground, 1/11 on Good (7/21 when soft in title) and is also 1/12 in C3, needing a lot to drop right. His most recent win was in C5. I would like to think there are a couple too good in here. 

Flash City is 3/40 on the Flat and is hard to catch right. His most recent win came when able to dictate a steady gallop at Hamilton against a poor bunch from memory. 0/4, 2 places C3. He may put in a decent show but again there are more consistent and better/more progressive rivals in here. Money Team looks a bit out of sorts and is struggling to win at C4 level. 0/5 on Good, 0/4 C3. He needs a bit more on what he has done this season. 

GoGoGreen is 0/12, 2 places Class 3 and although you can never say never with this ‘canny’ yard, he looks up against it here on all known form. 

Bunce only ever appears to win when backed – a ‘money horse’ with a record of 0/22, 5 places when above 8/1. (0/11, 1 place 12/1+)He isnt in great form at the moment but does tick a lot of ‘profile’ boxes for the race and will have some pace to aim at. But the market suggests not today. 

I’ll Be Good is interesting but his career stats are now 4/37 in handicaps and he doesnt like winning very often. However he is in decent form at the moment. He gets a ‘new jockey’ here (never a positive sign for win purposes in my book) but is 1/14 in C4, and 0/2 C3. Most wins at C5 and he needs lots to go right in C4. Another that has class to prove. 

***

So, plenty of question marks about lots of these but if the return to this course and distance sparks Pearl Acclaim back into life (same jockey on as that win and recent starts) then he will out run his odds of 16/1. Ill Be Good and Flash City like to get on with it and they are drawn low. Pearl Acclaim can get on with it and may just be a faster horse than those two. As long as the jockey is sensible and doesnt get in a battle (he doesnt have to lead to win) I see no reason why we wont get a run for our money. 

 

Shortlist….

There were a few stats I was mulling over but in the end was guessing too much…

-Chris Wall continues in fine form, 8/19, 14 places in the last 30 days. He runs Trucanini in the 7.35 Newmarket. He is also 3/5, 5 places with Baker in the last 30 days. I simply don’t know is the horse will handle the cut in the ground, and it looks a competitive race with quite a few inform horses. But, the horse won LTO and if the ground is no issue should run well. 

-Saeed Bin Surorr is 3/4 with Handicappers at Bath in the last 5 years and runs Amazing Speed in the 8.15. Turned over at short odds LTO I am not sure if this horse wants to win. His speed rating is decent but there are questions there for a horse fairly short, but the trainer may have found him such a weak race he cant fail to get his head in front. 

-Nicky Richards is 9/18, 10 places with handicap debutants in the last 2 years. He runs Coppelia in the 5.05 who takes an almighty step up in trip here. Very interesting and if he stays could be worth an EW tickle at 10/1. 

-Mark Johnston is 7/25, 9 places with 2yo newcomers at Musselburgh and runs Templier in the 6.10. He appears to be drifting so maybe he isnt going to go well. Kevin Ryan is 2/9, 3 places at the track also with newcomers so his Dreaming Voice in the same race would also be worth a second look. 

-Dalgleish and Makin are 3/12, 6 places when teaming up in Musselburgh handicaps and have Argaki in the 8.25. He has had loads of runs recently and I can’t get a grip on his wellbing/form. He will track Ellaal and back at this track may run a decent race. Flatter tracks are his thing so a big run may be no surprise. 

 

Good Luck 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

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  • This is real value tip and well worked out worth a punt what ever happens cheers josh

    trevor 1 year ago Reply


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