Saturday 25/07/15 (3.15 +3.30)

 

 

UPDATE

A steady day with another 4.75 points to add to the pot on my maths. Tanzeel won that well, one of those, ‘why didn’t I bet two points to win’ performances ūüôā On another day I would have picked Balti Boys whom nearly won at 25s and as expected Heavens Guest ran well…I didn’t quite think he had enough in hand to win,but always well placed he did. Brilliant horse. Lincoln sweated up before and didn’t run his race, Hughes pushed the button and there wasn’t much there to my eye…or he just gave up when realised it wasn’t his day. Shore Step also ran well. From a shortlist of 10 or so for both races I found 1st and 2nd in both, on another day I may have had another winner…onto Goodwood.

 

 

Mon Brav received a brilliant ride from Fergal Lynch yesterday and we got the bonus of 7/1. This horse has to be ridden like that and thankfully the gaps arrived. That takes the blog to +74 points all in since the first ‘advised’ bet in early November 2014. Ignoring Cheltenham/Aintree/Royal Ascot takes the profit to +102 points.(academic but the record outside of the hardest racing weeks of the year is quite good ūüôā ) ¬†Anyway, no time to dwell in this game…

 

3.30 York

Tanzeel 7/1  Р1 point EW (Bet365/Skybet 5 places)

Grandad’s World 16/1 – 1 point EW (Skybet/Bet365 5 places)¬†

(4 points total) 

Some Trends…

Draw… 10/11 drawn 1-12 (10/126 runners, 27 places) 1/62, 12 places drawn 13+

11/11 Р 12/1 or under (0/115, 16 places 14/1 +) 

9/11 РAged 3-5 (9/117, 27 places) 6+ 2/70, 12 places 

8/11 РTop 2 in market , 11/11 top 5 in market 

10/11 Рhad RAN over 7f in career at least once. (1/39, 2 places yet to run over 7f) 

5 from 11 RUNNERS, 7 places… had 9 or fewer career runs (Tanzeel, Grandad’s World and Encore dOr)¬†

Trainers…

-Fahey 2/18, 6 places 

-Nicholls 0/22, 6 places 

-Tim Easterby 0/14, 0 places 

-Ryan 0/9, 2 places 

***

Of course these are only 11 year trends so they will be broken at some point but there are a few point of interest in there. 

Trends of Age and Draw (which looks significant) would leave Pipers Note, Algar Lad, Blaine, Highland Acclaim, Tanzeel, Grandad’s World, Sea the Sun.¬†

Given all of the above Tanzeel looks a fair price at 7/1 and the 5 places (and being as certain as I ever can be that bar accidents he will be in the top 5) made me go EW, which is unusually for me at that price. Unexposed horses do well here and I was surprised how many horses I was comfortably crossing off my list for this race. There are a lot of exposed runners who have a few questions to answer. He was weak in the market last time and I suspect this was the plan. He is the ‘could be anything’ horse in the race. Market leaders, fancied horses, and those with fewer than 9 runs do well in this race. I had to back him, despite 7s feeling short enough in a race of this nature (but in context that all winners to date have been 12/1 or under SP)¬†

Grandad’s World…well he is also a could be anything horse. Now, there is a dilemma, built into his price. He either doesnt like good to firm, or he doesnt like the Newmarket tracks and their undulations – or both. Out of Kodiac there is no reason on paper why Good to Firm should be a problem. If we ignore his last run (they add the hood which suggests he may have done too much as well) and focus on that York performance, we have a decent horse on our hands. He finished infront of Magical Memory that day who then franked the form and hacked up at Newmarket (in the race where he bombed out). He also beat Northgate Lad that day who has won a couple since. So, that form looks strong. Fahey is the only trainer to have won this twice since inception. Finally only he and Tangerine Trees like to make the running from those drawn low. It is not impossible that he could get a fairly easy time on the far side. Either way 16s was a good EW bet, 5 places I thought. If he does tail off then maybe the ground is an issue but for me the jury is out on that, and as such at that price I am happy to have a dart.¬†

***

Having gone through every runner in the usual way I would be most concerned over Willbeme, ShoreStep and Encore dOR. Willbeme should appreciate the step back up to 6f and should be thereabouts. The draw stats look interesting and although the places are in line with those drawn lower, the win stats are well below. Maybe it is just a statistical anomaly and it is just all about pace here, but we shall see. ShoreStep Рi backed last time and he traveled well, looking like the winner but found nothing when asked. Maybe he will come on for that and if so he may do best of those drawn high. He is still lightly raced compared to some of these but does need to prove his class above C3, but has only had 2 tries. Encore dOR is just unexposed and could be anything but I prefer the form so far of the other two unexposed horses. But, he could go well. Sea The Sun is interesting but his trainers record in the race is poor. He is also 0/4, 0 places on Good to Firm and is a bit in and out of form. But, he has the form if you look far enough back to run well here. 

I simply could not make a case for the rest. Most come here in awful form, and not just the one off race, a string of poor efforts where a leap of faith is required. And for those that are in better form there are the usual mixture of questions…ground, class, distance, field size. Maybe one of them will win but I wont be annoyed I am not on.¬†

***

There is pace drawn across the track and I think the best horse in the race will win. History does suggest these will be drawn low so we shall see. Gran Caneria Queen will blast along near side, Willbeme and ShoreStep won bet far behind. Hopefully they take each other on and fade. Grandad’s World should take them along on the far side and will hopefully stay there. Tanzeel has the perfect profile for this race and is the only really potentially exciting horse in the race.

***

Ascot to follow…

This race brings back happy memories as I backed Heavy Metal last year to win at 50/1 BFSP for my biggest single win of the season. This year is looking tough as there are non runners all over the place and the ground is an unknownz somewhere between good to soft,soft and I dare say tacky if it starts to dry out…

 

3.15 Ascot 

Lincoln 14/1 (bet365 5 places) 1 point EW (2 points total) 

 

Some stats for interest but not binding..

11/17 Top 5 LTO

15/17 Aged 4 or 5 (that is quite strong) 3yo 1/58, 6+ 1/120. 

11/17 4 or 5 runs this season. 

 

At this stage in a season when you like to focus on the big field ‘sprint’ handicaps (5-7f) horses you have backed before or have kept an eye on keep popping up and taking each other on.¬†

We backed Lincoln at 40/1 EW a few starts ago when he very nearly won and in that sens he owes us nothing. With a clearer run he would have been even closer to Speculative Bid that day. I am not sure if he would have won but it would have been a very close finish.  His next run can be ignored, drawn on the wrong side, weaving from one side to the other and doubts about stamina for a properly run 8f. His last run was ok, on a track that may not have been ideal and in a small field race where the leaders didnt really come back. Still, he ran well. He is juts a very tough and consistent horse who has won or placed 15 times from all of his 25 flat turf runs. Given the form with Sepculative Bid I have no idea why one is 4/1 and the other is 14s. That seems odd to me. The horse handles soft ground which is important and provided Hughes doesnt have him too far back, provided we get the breaks and he runs his race, he should be very close to the top 5 at worse. 

Speculative Bid was probably worth backing at 8/1 but he is now 4s! He may well win this well, and good luck to him, but I nearly questioned by sanity taking 7s in the Dash above, and I would need carting away taking 4s here. That is very short in a race of this nature. 

I may have a nibble on Balty Boys (1/4 point -¬£5 EW for me)…I still cant get that run in the Royal Hunt Cup out of my head where he came 4th, from the clouds up the near side, beating his side by a mile. He is going to do something this season, or at some point, and while it may not be today he is one to keep in the notebook. (although the Royal Hunt Cup isnt throwing out winners at the moment, 0/21 from horses to have run since)¬†

I hope Rene Mathis runs well having won for us last time out at a tasty 25/1. However he has so far failed at this track on two occasions running very poorly. The jockey booking is odd as well. He is only 1lb higher and I am surprised a more usual Fahey jockey isnt called on. Maybe he will run well, but enough questions and he has done his job for us. He will like the ground but all turf wins have been at Newmarket. 

Heaven’s Guest will run his race and should be well placed. He keeps finding one or two too good in handicaps of this mark. However, lots in his favour and he will run his race, and I cant see him being far away from the top 5.¬†

There wasnt anything else I could make an overly compelling case for. Bushcraft is still improving but he will have to take another step forward here. He may well do so but that is a question. 

PACE…

I really have no idea here! There do not appear to be any out and out front runners but there will be a few that make the running that maybe dont normally. They may all merge down the middle I dont really know. Hopefully Enlace blasts off and brings the high drawn horses into things. Sirus Prospect and Suzis Con may take the low numbers into the race. In a race that doesnt look full of pace on paper I hope Hughes doesnt drop Lincoln right out as it could be they dont come back to them here. That is the only danger, but we will have to trust the jockey. 

All in all, a race where the market suggests there is only one winner but we should get a run for our money here, and he should have a decent chance coming late and hard. 

***

That is all for today. Good Luck with whatever you fancy. 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

15 Comments

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  • Excellent write up Josh – hope you have gone for the right two in the featured 15.30 ?!?

    Bob 2 years ago Reply


    • Ha – we shall see! No easy picking winners of those races but all I ask is we get a run for our money! If the ground isnt an issue I would like to think Grandad’s World wont be far away! I may have to have change on Willbeme as if she won (having backed her before) that would hurt and there is enough pace high so will be interesting if draw stats come to fruition

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • backed mon brav and i shall be backing your selections today josh so good luck to us all.

    william 2 years ago Reply


  • Clive Brittain’s BRAZOS 3.15 looks interesting the money has poured in as well. Havlin is not exactly inspiring though or is the booking a curve ball, who know’s…

    Jim 2 years ago Reply


    • Yep I did look at him and he caught the eye before money came, I was just put off by the length of break…trainer has won race 1/13. The odds may allow you to overlook that but I was happy to leave, also a slight class niggle 0/4,0 places c2 20k+ but this is only 20th run of live, maybe he has had a wind op or something.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Nice winner again josh in tanzeel also an excellent write up love the information you give looking forward to goodwood thanks again.

    Steve 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Steve. Yep hopefully a good week next week, but given my festival record this year I will be cautious! But,some tasty handicaps tonget stuck into at least.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Well done Josh. Mon Brav yesterday and Tanzeel today. Thanks for posting these.

    Goldhorses 2 years ago Reply


    • My pleasure…remember these wins when a losing run occurs haha. The whole process helps me as well and my thinking..much more through when putting thoughts into open, and hence I make more money over time. Hopefully I can find a few next week.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Great write up Josh – Really looking forward to Goodwood minimum stakes though!! Couple of score profit today – no complaints from me – Really enjoy your analysis and even I am starting to learn a few things !!

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Joe. we are always learning at this game!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Congrats on Tanzeel and thanks….was on the radar and your excellent write up confirmed the choice for me…also did Heaven’s Guest as have a real soft spot for any progeny of Dark Angel over 7 furlongs so when you put the horse up as a possible just had to have a flutter..cheers again..all the best and looking forward to Goodwood gd lck

    john 1 year ago Reply


    • That is superb John, and exactly why I share my thoughts in the way that I do…to help with your own informed opinions so that when I dont pick the winner there is a chance that some of you will. HG is as tough as they come and ran a superb race, glad you had something on.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


  • Josh.
    been reading your blogs for a while now and must say enjoy them very much.
    myself I do like to have a go at the big hcaps on sat and the big major meetings and tend to pick horses using similar ways to yourself.
    hopefully will contribute to the site over the coming weeks and enjoy reading your other punters thoughts who also post on here.
    good luck.

    Dolphin 1 year ago Reply


    • Thanks Dolphin, much appreciated. Your comments/selections/thoughts and those of all readers are always welcome – and I enjoy when others come up with alternative selections with their reasoning etc.

      Josh Wright 1 year ago Reply


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