Tip of the Day 23/07/15

As if often typical when I email out every now and then ‘advertising’ a post, the selection didn’t win. Sods law. The selection was disappointing but at least there was an obvious reason. It was quite clear after about 3f that he wouldnt be winning as he was pulling like mad. Unsurprisingly when the jockey pressed the button there was nothing left. Rather frustratingly the horse I thought had a chance of leading all the way did at a decent price and maybe I should have spent more time looking at his merits. I thought he could be outpaced near the end with most winning form over further, but it was a shocker of a race. The shortlist was generally poor although the Ger Lyons debutant was backed from 2/1 (was 4s very early) into odds on, and as such made 2/1 look a decent price! But that is hindsight. My front runner at Sandown gave me a great run for my money and very nearly went all the way, getting caught late on. The O’Brien handicap debutant ran ok actually and he will find a race for him at some point. Racing in his wife’s colours he looks to have been bought for some of his other kids to get experience. The rest were quite poor. 

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Running Total (trial): 14 bets / 3 wins / 4 seconds / +6.5 points

I was looking at two horses in some depth, however they have both been withdrawn which was frustrating, however I think I have found one who should run his race…

 

5.15 Wolverhampton 

Joshua Potman 10/3 (general) 1 point win 

The Way In…

Well he is called Joshua..that is all you need isnt it? Job done! 

While many a Grand National winner has been picked with such ‘name’ logic by the £2 one bet a year punters, I had better provide some reasoning… (i may try that approach next year given how abject my attempts with other methods have been!)

Tom Dascombe is in form, 4/13, 9 places in last 2 weeks with his handicappers. Unsurprisingly Kingscote has ridden most of those and their stats are 4/10, 7 places in that period. Dascombe has 3 runners today across the country but I found it interesting that his stable jockey picks this one to ride. I believe he would have had a choice on all three.

The Horse…

Well he is unexposed still and like most in this race has been disappointing.  10/3 is just about acceptable in the context of the race and I wouldnt want to touch the short price on the fav. 9f looked too short last time so I am happy to ignore that. However before that his runs at Ripon and Chester were at a much higher level – Ripon was a 0-90 C5, this is 0-70. There have been numerous winners to come out of both races. I think they are the best races any horses in this field has competed in. 

So, he steps back up in trip. The Pace angle interested me as he can lead. Golden Jubilee can too, but he has yet to prove his stamina for this trip and as such I hope they try and keep hold of him, to give him a better chance of lasting. (all wins over 10f) As such Kingscote may get an easy lead here, which would be nice. 

Finally his speed figure caught the eye. He is on 74. Golden Jubilee on 66, and then the rest are in the low 40s. Now a few are open to improvement but on what they have done to date, on the clock, and with these particular figures, he is the best in here, by quite some way. 

Like most of these he needs to prove that he wants to win. That is a concern but I think there is enough there to take the chance. As ever, horses with a profile like this can never surprise, so a poor run wouldnt leave me open mouthed. But, this is an awful race…

The Opposition..

Golden Jubilee needs to prove his stamina on the flat over this trip, he has placed, but i want to see more. He seems a bit one paced near the end of 12f, although his consistency, and the fact he knows how to win, will hold him in good stead. Field of Light is unexposed and this is his second handicap. It is the same trip and class as last time out but he gets blinkers for the first time here. That could make the difference but as always with headgear you never really know. If he needs a true test this small field race may not provide it, as it should be a tactical affair. Although Kirby is very good in these small fields (stats in line with Fanning albeit from a much smaller stats pool) so he clearly has a chance, and the market suggests he will go well. 

The rest look woefully out of form and couldnt carry any of my money. 

 

So, in what is an awful race I think we have a live one from a stable in form. This is a much easier race than most of his recent tests and he steps back up to what looks like a more suitable trip. Stamina is a slight niggle in truth but the trainer clearly thinks he will stay, and he has yet to prove he doesnt stay. The tactical nature of the race should also help. 

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The Shortlist… (as a way in to help with your own analysis) 

-Laura Young’s stats with handicap hurdlers at Worcester are 5/13, 6 places in recent years. She runs Mix N Match here in the 4.55. This must be one of the worst handicap hurdles I have seen. Awful. This horse is 1/36 over hurdles, BUT this is only the 5th run for this trainer and he has been consistent of late. He has yet to prove his stamina in his life to date, but at his age, and given how he ran last time, maybe this test is what he needs this time. He is 10/1. Now, if he won I would not be surprised given how poor the race is, and if he dropped away, and didnt stay, I wouldnt be surprised. But he looks genuine and this long straight should play to any strengths he has. I will be having a small EW bet with 4 places to aim at, but if I had to rely on making money from racing in races such as this I think I would give up. 

-Chris Wall remains in form, 5/11, 8 places in last 2 weeks. Fever Few runs in the 7.40 Newbury. I had a look at the race but it looked a bit too competitive, with 5 pretty much the same price and one shorter priced fav who won last time out.  A lot are in form but if he builds on his return he will run his race, and that may be good enough. 

-Loughnane/Kirby are 4/10, 6 places when teaming up at Wolvs. They run Treasury Notes in the 4.10. He is 2/11, 3 places with his handicap debutants. However it is a race mainly full of unexposed 3yo’s from yards in form and that have decent track records. It looked too much of a puzzle, but maybe those stats are strong enough to ignore the horses. I am undecided, there just looks to be too much guesswork. 

-Finally James Fanshawe is 3/5 with handicap debutants at Doncaster. He runs The Tin Man in the 7.20. He is 15/8, a bit short for me in such (is is 3yo only) race but clearly expected to go close. 

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Good Luck.

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2 Comments

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  • You are right,Josh,AP O’BRIEN bought 3 or 4 low grade handicappers in UK last winter particularly to run on AW at Dundalk and for his kids to get experience-don’t take them too seriously although one won a couple of races early this year.He has also gone down the bumper route and been quite successful with daughter,Sara ,horses in wife’s colours or JP McManus.
    As regards Doonard Prince at Naas-he is a profile horse of mine-but I feel he prefers a bit of juice which he wouldn’t have had last evening .
    Thanks for all the free stuff,josh.

    Ray 23/07/15 11:47 AM Reply


    • Cheers Ray…yep I agree about Doonard and juice..didnt stop me having a ‘just in case’ nibble at 25s mind! But yes, returning there with some cut. He traveled well for a long way, suggesting he is still in form, but when getting to business end maybe wasnt comfortably on ground.

      Josh Wright 23/07/15 11:51 AM Reply


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