A nice winner yesterday and a bonus of getting 7/1 – just proving that sometimes the market has no idea! I know a few of you got 10s on Betfair so well done.
A quick word on what I am calling the shortlist…H Morrison improved his decent record at Chelmsford with a 3/1 winner last night, meaning a 1 point loss on all shortlist horses (if you backed them to level stakes) I have been through all the shortlisted horses, that didnt make the final cut, and the stats are…
28 bets / 7 wins / 12 placed (inc the wins) / + 31 points (1 point win on all bets)
Now, I haven’t been backing them all to one point, a few to 1/2 points etc. There have been 5 or so in that lot that I have been negative about, especially from price, and none of them have won. I will continue to monitor how the shortlist does but it just goes to show you the power of a stats based approach as a starting point. It also shows you the power of Geegeez Gold! 🙂
Running Total for Trial (‘official’ tips): 13 bets / 3 wins / 4 seconds / +7.5 points
(ALL stats below refer to handicaps, unless otherwise stated…And also that this post is a daily feature, always updated by 10am each day, Mon-Friday, and sometimes at weekend)
Strictly The One 7/2 (Skybet) 1 point win (10/3 general)
The way in…
Mulholland has been in form in the last 14 days, 3/7, 3 places with his handicappers. He is also 2/2 with Ted Durcan in the last 14 days and well as the pair being 2/2 at Bath in handicaps…one of those wins was with this horse…
It is a poor quality race but I think 7/2, 10/3 is just about fair. This horse won here over course and distance last time out, in first time blinkers and with the tongue tie returned. There is always a danger that blinkers don’t work again but he is open to improvement and having got used the track should run another good race. I cant see why he wont go close again, it is only a question of whether something is better in here on the day. Wild Desert and Born to Reign like to get on with it and as such the race should be truly run. He should track this pace and hopefully pounce when it collapses!
Well the selection beat 3 of his rivals here last time out and I dont think there were any hard luck stories and, baring lack of a free run and no accidents etc, I cant see any obvious reason why any of that form should be turned around. He has gone up 4lbs but is open to improvement so no bother there for me.
Senor Goeorge looks the main danger having also won over CD LTO but I dont know why these two are not a similar price. No idea. What I liked is that his Geegeez Speed figure is 50, whereas the selection is 56. That was another tick in the box. He will run well clearly, but I fancy deadly Ted to outride his more inexperienced rider here – well, let’s just say I think I would rather have the senior pro on my side in a driving finish.
Wild Desert may make a descent go of trying to lead all the way and a big run wouldnt be a shock from him. But he is 0/10 between 1m5f and 1m6f, and also 0/3, 0 places at the track.
The rest are disappointing and the two at the top of the market would have to be awful and really underperform tonot get involved here. At the odds, and due to the stats, jockey (ie a pro), and speed rating i was happy to take 7/2 – i think that is fair.
*** Mulholland also runs Vexillum at the track in the 5.40. He has loads of questions to answer but the same trainer/jockey form stats apply and he is 10/1. If i was looking at the race normally I wouldnt back him, but it is a shocker of a race.
The Shortlist… (to help with your own analysis, as a way in 🙂 )
There are a few very interesting horses today, a few I am excited about at decent odds that could run well. In order of position on my notepad…
-David Bridgewater is 4/8, 6 places in the last two weeks. He runs Dutch Masterpiece in the 7.45 and Tempuran in the 6.05. Tempuran looks interesting at 5/1, has the best profile on the ‘instant expert tab’ and has plenty of pace to aim at here. It is an apprentice race which always makes me weary but 5s is fair and I expect a decent run.
-(now a NON RUNNER….)Robert Cowell has another runner at Bath – having used the same stats to back a loser of his a few days ago – He runs Wispe in the 4.10. This horse doesnt like winning which concerns me, even at a moderate level. I am always weary of horses with lots of 2s and 3s, I dont necessarily think that is a positive, especially if they have a low strike rate. However, his speed figure is miles ahead of anything else in here, it is a poor quality race and he is still unexposed. There were enough doubts about the horse for him not to be a 1 point bet (a bit more going for the selection i thought) but trainer stats at the track of 7/13, 8 places with handicappers means he will have winners again here at some point.
– The 8.50 at Sandown is a cracker of a little sprint handicap. I have an EW bet on Rocket Rob for various reasons (a profile horse, but he is out of form, usually runs his race here and will bounce back at some point) – However I have also had a nibble at Pucon because he has an impressive speed figure and is a well drawn front runner. He will try and lead all the way here and I think he has a chance of doing so. ELEUSIS is the final conundrum in the race. Chris Wall is 5/12, 9 places in the last 2 weeks, and is 3/5, 4 places with George Baker in the last 30 days and is also 2/7 at Sandown. There is quite a bit there to go on. The horse has arguably been unlucky the last couple of runs – but you make your own luck in sprints and he is a hold up horse. There is every chance he runs into trouble again here, however with a clear run I would expect him to go close.
-A O’Brien runs Udogo (who we backed last time and run a shocker) in the 8.05 Naas on handicap debut. He is 6/18, 9 places with handicap debutants at the track in recent years. This horse was woefully outpaced in a maiden over 5f (i didnt predict that!) but now steps up to 8f. Very interesting. I probably wont be able to resist £5 to find out although he looks unfancied in the market and could just be useless!
-Brian Meehan is 3/6, 4 places in the past 2 weeks and runs Pivot Point (10/1) in the 9.00 Leicester. It looks an open 3yo handicap but his speed figure is good and he steps up in trip here. He is doing something different from his last runs and is therefore of more interest.
2 yo – debutants…
I dont like betting on unraced horses in general but I know some of you will..
-Hannon is 3/10, 5 places with 2yo debutants at Sandown. That makes Blackout interesting in the 7.10 although you may wish to take a market check, as bar that stat we have nothing else to go on!
-Of more interest to my eye is Ger Lyons, who has stats with his debutants of 4/16, 5 places at Naas. In itself they are solid, if unspectacular. I found it interesting that Atzeni goes over there for his boss (he is riding a LTO winner on the card as well mind) so that makes Bear Cheek of interest in the 5.55…although he is being well backed and is now 2/1, not a price for me.
Donard Prince runs in the 7.00 Naas. It is a big field sprint and not one I intend to delve into. However, this horse is turning into a bit of a CD specialist and is now 3/5, 4 places over CD, including a big field a couple of runs back. The concern is he is 0/10, 4 places in this class band, whereas he is 3/8, 5 places in the band below (IRE<5k). But, he tracks the pace, the ground is OK (better on Good or a bit softer) and he is 25/1 with 4 places to aim at. He has run poorly the last twice, hence his price, but this track could perk him back up and I am going to have to pay something at those odds to find out. As I said, I havent looked at a single other runner in the race, which you may wish to do if you fancy a bet! 🙂