Saturday 18/07/15 (updated-Tip of the Day)

 

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Supplicant was poor yesterday, no excuses there. Poyle Vinnie wasnt a shock winner in the sense he was unexposed, that being his 12 turf run. He did demolish them, and I wonder if there was a slight track bias to accentuate the winning distance but he was the best horse on the day by some way. As ever a few things to take away from the race. Tip of the Day was also poor, two dud runs in a row which always causes reflection – but the post highlighted another decent priced winner 9/1 at Hamilton. 

Tip of the Day…

3.50 Cartmel 

Buachaill Alainn 1 point win 7/2 (Bet365, SB, BetFred) 

The Way In …

Peter Bowen is 6/16, 9 places with his handicap chasers at the track and he also won this race last year. 

The Horse…

Well he can race lazily which is always a concern but he very rarely doesnt run his race and despite this he doesnt down tools and give up, so he should keep going. I found it interesting that 3 of his 4 wins have come with no headgear on at all, and his other was when having a visor for the first time. No headgear today and he may well respond positively. He is new to the track but has won around Newton Abbot, so tight turning tracks are no issue and this long run in should help his stamina come to the fore. He stays all day. The trainer is also in superb form. The horse has won at C3 over hurdles and is still unexposed with more to come. 

The pace angle intrigued me. There are 3 or 4 in here, well most of the field that like to front run and/or push the pace. Now one of them may dominate, Chicago Outfit maybe, but he will have to work hard to stay there all the way. Pena Dorada won from the front here LTO and Green Wizzard likes to be up there too. Midnight Appeal tried to lead last time as well. So, the pace could collapse and set it up for BA. 

The Opposition…

Well a few inform horses here. I backed Chicago Outfit on one of his recent wins thinking he would lead all the way but he is now 9lb higher than for his last win, and this is a different track altogether. As I said I think he may have to work for the lead. Now, if he does get an easy time up front he does jump well and he could stay there. But, the handicapper will get him eventually and I thought there were enough chinks to take him on. 

Pena Dorada looks a C4 beast and is 0/7, 3 places at C3 level. Still he could improve for that last win and hopefully takes CO on as above. There is also the possibility that he ‘bounces’ as well, this the second run after a long break. 

Master of the Hall has yet to win  a handicap chase and has been beaten a bit too far the last couple of times for my liking. There is also a stamina question over fences. Still, he is generally consistent. Problematic and Midnight Appeal have both left two big yards and look to have lost their way. I would want to see more from them before backing them. Green Wizzard ties in with Chicago Outfit and if that is the formline that prevails he will be very close to that horse, and therefore has a chance. 

All in all a few reasons to think that BA may run a better race than recently (removal of headgear) and with assured stamina, and reasons to take on the others, we should get a run for our money at least, which would be nice after the last two duds. 

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That is all for today. 

Good Luck with your Saturday punting. 

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