Tip of the Day 15/07/15

Yesterday was poor all round for me as I couldn’t buy a winner at all. I’d had 4 winning days in a row since last Friday so it was to be expected I suppose. The main selection here didnt run that well and I dont think there were any excuses. The pace did collapse as expected but when ours was asked to pick up he found nothing and just wasnt very good. Moving on… 

Running total…8 bets / 2 wins / 2 places / +4.5 points 

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6.20 Worcester 

Ladfromhighworth 7/2 – 1 point win

(4/1 Boylesports but they wont let me bet any more the buggers) 

This horse has gone from 4s across the board this morning as I have been researching/writing, to generally 7/2 which is just about ok although I dont think I would want to back him at shorter than this. 

The way in…

Jeremy Scott is 9/28, 12 places with all his handicappers at Worcester since 2009. This 32% win strike rate is solid. What’s more he is in form – 1/1 in the last 14 days and 2/7 last 30 days. His yard is clearly ticking over nicely during the summer months. 

The horse…

Well he is an unexposed 10 year old, having only his 11th run of his life under rules. He is 3/10, 5 places chasing and is generally consistent. He is a course and distance winner. He ran well at Fontwell after a break and then failed at Newton Abbot over 2f shorter. He is now 0/2, 0 places there. Worcester is a very different track with a long home straight and given his stamina i suspect he finds it all happening a bit too quickly at NA – or he needs a searing pace for his stamina to come into play, which he didnt get last time. 

While there are no out and out front runners here the track allows him to get into top gear and I see no excuse for him putting in a decent performance. 

The opposition…

There is nothing else in here i would want to back. American Legend is just tricky to win with, 1/12 in chases. He places a lot. If he puts it all in he would have a very good chance, but that is a big if at 3/1. Finish the Story isnt in great form and is 1/9 in C4. He is unexposed but up has been well beaten in his last few runs. Speedy Bruere has his stamina to prove. His breeding doesnt automatically suggest this trip will help. Amazing Dazy has had only 2 runs over fences, yet to place. Not for me, although clearly unexposed, but I would want to see more before betting. According to Sarah has stamina to prove and ran rather poorly after a break last time. She may come on from that but I am happy to take her on here. 

That just leaves King Fontaine who is the most interesting. Lawney Hill does ok with new stable recruits and is 6/19, 10 places with her handicap chasers here. This horse is 0/13, 3 places under rules in the last 3 years, and wasnt running well in Hunter Chases. He is also a 12yo. A big run would be no shock given the above but I couldnt justify backing him although he is being well found in the market, which is no surprise. 

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Good Luck

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