Tip of the Day: 09/07/15

Repecharge gave us a run for our money until the final furlong or so when weakening out of things – I am sure Cowell may find the key but she could just not be very good. The only positive was that we took 6/1 (-10p R4) about a horse that went off the 11/4 f and if I can do that consistently the profit will come over time. Albony, my other hope for the day, ran no sort of race, never laying up with the pace or looking comfortable. It probably didn’t matter in the end at the Fanshawe horse won like an odds on shot, relishing the step up as expected. There was more pace in the race than I thought and the leader didn’t appear to hang around.

Total: 0/3, 1 place = – 3 points

Still, this trial, and my wallet, could do with a winner…

8.40 Newbury

Always Resolute 9/2 (general) – 1 point win

The way in…

I am going to put my trust in Mr Javis again, as I did for 1/2 a point with his Albony last night. His yard is 3/5, 5 places in the last 14 days and now 5/17, 10 places in the past month. In general his horses have been running well. His handicap form at the track reads 3/9, 4 places and the trainer and jockey are 2/2 in the past month when teaming up.

So, that is a good start. The final ticks in the box came from the horse and the way the race could be run…

The horse…

He is still unexposed and 1/9 on the turf. He is a hold up horse and for a small field race there are plenty in here that like to get on with it. Glenns Wobbly, Hallings Comet, Rideonastar and to a lesser extent Bari all like to get on with it. The other two like to track and push the pace as well. While they are all not going to be able to lead this should ensure a strongly run race, if all running to similar styles as they have done on their last few starts. So, there should be no excuse on that front.

HIs run last time out was ok, if not spectacular where he was trapped 4 wide the whole way round the Nottingham track and may not have appreciated the softer ground. While that did not affect the result, the winner kept tight to the rail before switching out, and I suspect he lost a few lengths. However, it is his penultimate run that catches the eye where he was a 5l second to Paris Snow. That horse has since won 3 on the bounce, racing off Or76 lto. The horse he finished 1l ahead of that day has since come out and won 2 on the bounce and there are two further next time out winners behind him too. That looks decent form and it couldn’t have worked out any better. Whats more there was a single front runner in that race and he may have appreciated a stronger pace.

Finally , although rated 58, he gets a 7lb claimer on board that will help (and the stats suggest the trainer uses him to help horses win) his geegeez speed rating is 70, which is second best in this race. So, that gives me confidence.

All in all, he is still open to improvement and there are a lot of factors in his favour. 9/2 seemed more than fair and the race could set up for him perfectly. It could be that he just flatters to deceive but with all the above there really should be no excuses for a good run…

The opposition…

Well there are a few unexposed types in here and Bari comes here on the back of a decent win, but the 55 day break would be a slight concern. A lot of the others have it to prove on turf as well. Hopefully a lot of them take each other on.

This isn’t one of those posts where we can rely on future winners (ie John Flint and Cowell will have winners at their tracks in future) so hopefully he can do the job today.

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Good Luck

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