Tip of the Day: 08/07/15

I have yet to watch Toe to Toes race but it appears that he simply wasn’t any good, no excuses. I was as confident as you can be at that level so that has to go down as disappointing. However, we/I will back many more like that and you have to trust the stats – I have no concern that over time John Flint’s handicap hurdlers at Uttoxeter will do just fine, and I need to make sure I am on his next winner there.

Total: 0/2, 1 place = -2 points

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A real conundrum and I have a feeling I am going to pick the wrong horse here but I have gone with the one at bigger odds, that is doing something different…

8.10 Bath

Repechage 6/1 –  1 point win

The way in…

Quite simply Robert Cowell doesn’t mess around when sending handicappers to Bath as stats of 7/12, 8 places since 2009 would suggest. This is his only runner here today, so no conundrums such as that at Ayr!

That stat could be enough, regardless of the horse, but…

The horse…

Well she is lightly raced and I am interested for two reasons…1. she takes a drop down in class, 2. she steps up in trip, at just a bit further than the distance she won at in France.

Those two things, plus the trainer form here, were enough to spark my interest. She ran well on her British debut at Wolvs a few runs ago and hasn’t done too much since, but as above there are reasons to expect improvement. Of course, she just may not be very good and as it is Bath, may not handle the track, but I have to trust the trainer on that one.

The opposition…

Well this is another awful race, as all class 6 races are really. Everything else has also been in equally poor form and I cant even create  shortlist of dangers…probably best to trust the market. As always at this level, nothing is a total surprise.

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So, I think there are some solid reasons there to expect a better performance from this horse, and much like the Flint stats, if today isn’t the day, Cowell’s handicappers are to be kept onside at Bath, and we will profit in the future at some point. That is the joy of using stats like this, there is always the excitement and promise of future riches! 🙂

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The Dilemma…

Albonny 4/1, running in the 8.20 Kempton was very high on my shortlist of two. I backed him last time where with a better ride he would have won. He was trapped out wide for the whole race, about 4 deep, and must have lost lengths, only losing by a head. He gets Buick today and in a tactical race – there doesn’t appear much pace in here- ( a race he won last year of 3lb lower) he will be in the right place to strike. The trainer is 3/6, 6 places in the last 14 days and is 5/15, 10 places in the last 30 days. The horse is 3/7, 5 places over course and distance.

Frankly, there is a lot to go on there and 4s is fair. I have backed him.

The concerns are that he isn’t doing anything different and is likely to just be hoping that an old repeat performance is enough (although with only 7 runs on AW, maybe there is improvement there)- which it could well be – but there are a couple in here taking big step ups in trip, including the fav. Fanshawe and FT have a great record together here and he is being backed as if he is going to win. I have a suspicion the lack of searing pace in here wont help but we shall see.

Anyway, hopefully both win. I could have put them both up but I want to try and stick to an ‘official’ 1 point a day and have gone with the one at a bigger price who is doing a couple of things differently.

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Finally, Saeed Bin Suroor runs Muqarred in the 7.20 Kempt 7/1. The trainer is 36/122, 65 places with handicappers here, and 3/6, 4 places when teaming up with this jockey at the track, in handicaps. This is a 3yo only handicap minefield (my least fav flat race to bet in maybe) but I suspect he will go off shorter than 7s, and I may have had a small ‘fun’ bet.

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Good luck

 

 

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