Friday: Stats Galore!

Exclusive Waters ran well in second yesterday at 12/1 and for a brief moment looked like winning. Sadly he bumped into a slightly more progressive rival who improved for the step up. But, a small profit on anyone who backed him each way. It was slightly ironic as there was rain which wouldn’t have helped but also there was a late jockey change. I am not sure why Winston wasnt riding but there we go. The fact he was meant to be riding was a signal enough and it would appear that horse just likes the track and is one to keep an eye on when he next turns up at Newcastle. The distance to the third and the rest suggests that maybe he can win from that mark. 

 

Firstly…some stats. I present these as they are and what you do with them is up to you 🙂 

1. Roger Varian is 3/4 with his handicap debutants at Chester. This horse is also a ‘qualifier’ for the 3yo micro angle that was in the report I sent out a few weeks ago. 7.35 Chester Shasag  2nd is the horse, currently 4/1. Market support would be significant and the yard is just starting to fire. 

2. David OMeara and Phil Makin have been on fire in the last month when teaming up…5/8, 6 places in all race types +25 points to SP. They team up with one horse today, Balducci, WON 7/1 in the 8.05 Chester 5/1. 

3. Richard Hannon and Frankie Dettori have been in equally impressive form… 6/13, 9 places. They have one runner today, 5.45 Newmarket Wajeeh 11/4. That isnt the type of horse I like to back, or price, but I will watch to see if the form of the yard continues. 

CARTMEL…

(from the stats guide)

Race 1 – Gordon Elliot 2/4, 4 places with non-handicap hurdlers here..runs Spice Fruity 4/1, 3rd 5/1  with Johnson booked. (he does run a few here today, so be interesting to see which ones have just been sent because there was a space in the horsebox!)

George Moore is also 4/7, 4 places, +30.5 points with his non-handicap hurdlers and the profit suggests a couple have gone in at decent prices. He runs Erica Starprincess 25/1!  UP Shown nothing in a couple of runs since leaving the flat but you never know, not sure if I can resist a small £5EW bet, just in case! 

Race 4 – 3.45…McCain is 6/15, 8 places with his non handicap chasers. He runs Volcanic here and according to the market those stats will soon be 7/16 – he is 4/6 on. Not a ‘working man’s price’ or whatever the phrase is. 

Race 5 4.20 – Maurice Barnes is 2/5, 4 places with his handicap chasers at the track since 2010. He doesnt send many, but they run well when he does. COOL STAR 6/1 WON 15/2 is his representative today. Hmmm…. On closer inspection he could well get an uncontested lead if he wants it, very dangerous. Sod it, with those stats and knowing he will be in the right place, he also won LTO, I have to back him. He would appear to be taking on an Elliot horse that is being backed but I will take my chance. 

Race 6 – 4.55 . Nicky Richards doesn’t send many handicap chasers here but they run well when he does.. 2/6, 3 places +7 points. Winter Alchemy is the horse 11/2 – I am going to have a look at the race in a bit more depth in a moment as rarely can I resist a bet in a 3m+ handicap chase (if told I could only ever bet in one race type again it would be this, even though it is C5) Richards/Harding are also 2/7, 4 places in all handicaps at the track. 

Race 7 A Novices Handicap Hurdle –  if I had to rely on winning money from races such as this I think I would move onto another sport. But, anyway….

-McCain runs Dr Dalwhinny (12/1) 9/32, 16 places with his handicap hurdlers +16 points. I think most of those that win are well backed and under 10/1, but this horse looks like he will enjoy the return to decent ground. Small EW support maybe. Having said that the yard are only 1/31 in the last 30 days, a bit chilly. Maybe I will wait to see how the rest get on, and whether he is nibbled at, before parting with a hard earned £5. UP

So, a few of interest there…If Gordon Elliot has a good day I may need to update the stats guide as it would appear he is starting to send more and more horses here – maybe his next ‘Perth’. 

 

****

4.55 Cartmel 

Winter Alchemy 11/2 PU

I have had a good look at this but wont ‘tip’ as it is a C5 chase and you can never go into these races with too much confidence. I narrowed this down to the selection, Call Me Mulligan, Everlasting and Solway Bay. 

Winter Alchemy gets blinkers for the first time and that, combined with his trainer stats as above, made him the bet for me here at the prices. He has the class to win this and this will only be his 12th chase start aged 10. Now, if he doesnt respond to the blinkers he will most likely be pulled up. If he does respond (and he did do to cheekpieces- removed for his last run) he will go very close here as he stays well and likes decent ground. His run two starts ago was very good and he finished 6l ahead of a horse called Chicago Outfit that day, who has since won 3 on the bounce. Like I said, this is all about headgear but the trainer doesnt come here very often and 11/2 was fair.

I backed Call Me Mulligan last time when he won at 14/1…it was a last minute, action/fun bet but on the Geegeez Cards he was highlighted as a Trainer Change uplift horse. A quick flick through some other stats and I could also see that he would lead or be up there. Anyway, I am not sure how strong that form is and he is now 11. I also think he could get in a dispute for the lead with Everlasting and he also has an inexperienced jockey on board. I hope he runs well, and he could well win if building on that run, but I think he will need to improve. 4s was probably fair, if 7s + i may have had a nibble. 

Everlasting deserves to be favourite based on his last win. My concern is whether he stays. He has had a few tries in the past over further than 2m6f but has never quite go there. However, it could be that now he is improving and is a better hose. If he stays, he could dominate from the front if seeing off Call Me Muligan. He would probably win if his stamina holds but 7/2 was skinny enough to find out. I preferred the 11/2 WA to see if the blinkers worked, if that makes sense. 

Solway Bay is 13 now but has a great record on Good to Firm (4/7) in all race types. He didnt show much on his return but could build on that. However, when jumping he is 0/7, 1 place going LH which would be a concern. I have a niggle that he could run quite well here, but being 13, and wanting to see a bit more, I was happy to pass him by. We shall see how he goes, but clearly showing enough at home for them to keep him on the go. 

The rest have far too many questions to answer for me and I can’t back their profiles. 

***

Finally…I did have a look at the 7.45 Newcastle which looks a decent sprint. I did have a small bet on Desert Ace UP at 4/1 last night which was just about big enough and he is now 7/2. It looks fairly open but he ran a cracker behind Red Barron LTO and if building on that will go close. Unlike most of these he looks to be on the upgrade (as opposed to repeating a past performance) and on this occasion I want to be with the more unexposed horse. There is plenty of pace in the race and I think he will track it and pounce. Another Wise Kid (0/8 3 places) and Pearl Acclaim (0/7 1 place) have yet to prove they are C2 animals and have had a few goes between them. Having said that Humidor won at Newmarket yesterday, aged 8, in a c2 handicap having been 0/10, 1 place in such races, so you never really know. It is still June and AWK is trained by Midgley so a big run wouldnt be a total shock and he has been banging on the door, albeit finding 1 or 2 too good. Ashpan Sam is a great horse who won me plenty last season (didnt back him at Epsom this time!) but he is high in the weights now and surely cant dominate from that mark. It would be some performance if he did but I was happy to leave him. Northgate Lad has been well backed for connections that dominated yesterday but I couldnt take 11/4 in a race like this now. He is open to improvement and has been running well, so clearly a big run would be no surprise. 

***

Right, that will do for today, good luck with any bets you have. 

Josh 

As ever all of the above is mainly derived from Geegeez Gold and for the likes of the Winter Alchemy race and Newcastle also HorseRaceBase. If you haven’t tried ‘Gold’ you can give the £5 14 day trial a go (and cancel or stay with it after that, no questions asked)  

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

9 Comments

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  • Hi Josh – My lads are all Going to Newcastle tonight – Is there anything you can spot that’s a bit of value it looks a tough card to me – Cheers Jo

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Joe, bar the 7.45 not too much and that looks tricky..maybe some useful pointers…

      6.10 – if using speed ratings (geegeez gold) then Madame Butterfly is best of those with a run, but only just)
      6.40 – likewise Chadic is miles ahead of the rest on speed figures and looks like he will lead from the front, maybe not be caught
      7.15 Open as you like, and listed races not my main area of enjoyment. Kleo interesting, if obvious, but trainer is 5/19 and 63% place SR so doesnt usually mess around when going that far north.
      8.15 Fair Loch – trainer won race for last two years, is in cracking form, and also horses debut for yard, you can make profits blind backing Ellison’s new recruits from other yards. Looks a puzzle of a race! In Focus quick return after a shocking run catches the eye, he has joint highest speed rating in race, 16/1
      8.45 – if there is firm in the going description, which i think there is, MeandMyshadow is worthy of some support at 10/1 EW maybe, especially if backed. If she drifts usually runs poorly!
      21.20 like most of these looks very very open, and couldnt say really. Savannah Beau and Final Venture maybe, but all 3yo open to improvement.

      Going to the race tack is interesting from a value perspective – i suspect your lads would rather back winners so I wouldnt put them off backing some shorties to lift the mood! It is a very tough card.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • Thx for again Josh – I have had a few quid ew on Ellisons Montefeltro in the Plate 25/1 looked a bit of value with Boyle sports – Clever Cookie 14/1 was also too big with Coral it might outclass them

        Joe 2 years ago Reply


        • No problem Joe, at least found 2 winners and meandmyshadow nearly made it very profitable. Hope your lads had a good time.

          Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Value at Newcastle
    640 Vanishing – will Chadic stay?
    845 Orient Sky – just coming to form
    920 Soie d’l’eau – CD winner upped in grade lto, so beaten; well backed this morning

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


  • Josh, 545NM Ghinia is down in class and should be suited by plenty of pace over CD.

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


    • Yep can see why you like her at the prices and she is versatile pace wise – if there isnt any she can lead or can be held up, looks like big run on 3rd start after a break. Certainly better value than Detorri/hannon horse, may have to have a nibble now! Also best profile with geegeez instant expert, although quite a few of these lightly raced. GL

      Chadic – yes i wont be betting in race, that question applies to a few and breeding wouldnt be a negative- also if can get easy lead and dictate may not have to truly stay.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Thx josh – Hopefully a few will go in

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


    • Haha we shall see, that was literally a 5 minute look through the whole Newcastle card so I wouldn’t bank on it, but at least there is some logic/reasoning behind them all!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


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