2.55 York

UPDATE… a decent run from Willbeme and no excuses – for a moment I thought she may be coming to win. I read the pace right and was pleased that the right horses, based on my reading of the race, finished in the right places. The win for Monsieur Joe was not a massive surprise but does go to show you that in flat racing, and handicaps in particular, horses aged 8+ can do new things. He had a high mark, and I questioned his ability at this level. The lack of places from 5 runs in this class (20k + to winner) concerned me – the comment on the jockey was based on the fact he was 0/5, 1 place on him and I didnt think he was the go to man. I also thought a more progressive horse may beat him. However, he had brilliant course form and ran well in this race last year, finding trouble. I thought he would need some luck in running but he looked to have a clean run and won a shade comfortably. Well done if you found him – its good to see his trainer in form as he enters ‘his month’. Still, it was +2.5 points on the race. 

 

Well 1 winner from the 4 yesterday at 5/1 ensured I came away with a small profit. The less said about the other 3 the better! 🙂 

Anyway, 

2.55 York 

Willbeme 14/1 1 point EW 5 places 

 

Annoyingly I couldnt find any trends in HRB for this race but have been through it like I would normally. 

Firstly PACE – there looks to be quite a bit on. Red Barron will try and make all up against the far rail – which he may well do. However he will be taken on by Captain Dunne, possibly Addictive Dream. Astrophysics and Bogart should be up there down the middle. There doesn’t appear to be much pace high and being drawn anywhere against the stand rail may be a disadvantage today. 

Willbeme traveled well for a long way on her seasonal reappearance over CD (in a decent race) and it is possible her lack of race fitness just caught up with her. But she still managed 5th. She looks to be improving still, has big field sprint form (showing she can handle a race such as this), and I think she will run another consistent race. She can lead but I expect her jockey to track the pace down the middle to far side and pounce as the exertions of those in front take their toll. Barring accidents or lack of a clear run I would be disappointed if  we didnt get a good run for our money here. She also has decent course form and form over 6f, which is no bad thing in a cavalry charge like this. So we have an inform horse who is still progressive to my eye, who will be race fit, has course form, big field handicap form, and will be in the right place. She ticks a lot of boxes for me. 

Without going through every runner Red Barron is clearly a danger given his form. It would be impressive to lead this field all the way as I suspect he may just have to do a bit too much up front. However he is a battler and I expect him to be in the first 5. Duke of Firenze caught my eye and i expect him to go well. I wonder if he is just a bit too high in the weights but he has a touch of class and it may not be a problem. He is also a proper hold up horse and will need quite a bit of luck in running. I may have to throw 1/4 point at him just in case as he was the other stand out.

I couldn’t make a compelling enough case for any of the others. There are a lot of old timers in here, and a few making seasonal reappearances. Generally I dont like backing those types in races like this, especially when quite a few now have race fitness. If something else wins I will say why I didnt back them when I update the post after the race! Perfect Pasture will be one to watch this season but I didnt like the jockey booking (i thought a strange one if this was his day, but I could be wrong – she is also only 3/60 at track) Monsieur Joe is interesting but he is 0/5, 0 places in Class 2 20k+ which suggests he always finds a few too good at this level. There are class 2s, and then there are class 2s, if that makes sense! He isnt getting any younger either and he was another that had a strange jockey booking.

Right, that is all for today. I had a bit too much red wine last night and my attention can’t stretch to any other races! 🙂 

Have a great weekend, 

Josh 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

10 Comments

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  • Hi Josh hope it runs well for you, but I have just backed Bogart who I feel has got a decent sprint him him soon.
    Who ever wins will need luck in this 20 runner sprint. Good luck all who back in this race.

    Philip 2 years ago Reply


    • Yes agree – I backed him last time I think and I can never get him right. He will win a big one soon – his 0/8, 1 place over 5f put me off, including 0/4, 0 places over CD – that is why I dodged him. But, he has form over 6f and 5.5f and that extra stamina is no bad thing. For my sake i hope to swoop past you in the final furlong 🙂 Good Luck

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Monsieur Joe – missed it !!!

    Great analysis again Josh

    Joe 2 years ago Reply


    • Mr Midgely as well, and it is nearly June! Wasn’t sure if he was good enough at his age in truth but happy with my 2.5 points profit. Winner won shade cosily.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Thanks for the Midgley tip Josh. The price guide you gave was spot on too.

    john 2 years ago Reply


  • Josh you mention there are no trends for this race and by that i take it you mean it isn’t in the Big Race Trends column. But if you hit the v4 button you can bring up the last 12 renewals which gives a decent sample to search for any worthwhile stats. Regards Eric

    Eric 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Eric…could you explain further or email me, I have looked around but am struggling! I use the v4 builder ETD a lot…do you mean the v4 button when you are on the racecard, or am I looking in wrong place?
      Cheers

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Too much red wine josh?…. So that’s where I’ve been going wrong for the last few years!

    derek 2 years ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh,terrific analysis.Invested 5 euro,1 ew Monsieur Joe,1 ew Wilbeme and 1 win Red Baron,all bog for profit of 16 euro! and the trifecta paid 800+ for 3 euro combination.No,I didn’t do it,sorry.
    Couldn’t purchase your profiles as only an OAP but really enjoy the free blog.
    Thanks again,
    Ray M

    Ray 2 years ago Reply


  • Why you get people complaining is beyond me when your blogs are free and very informative …

    christine 2 years ago Reply


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