It is nearly June and I am always looking out for trainers who perform well during a particular month with their handicappers. They must be consistent over the last 5 years and their record must be superior to all other months. This would suggest a deliberate strategy of getting their horses primed for a certain period. The month of June would possibly suggest that this trainer’s horses are fit but not necessarily over-raced, as well as being well placed.
I have had mixed success with this approach (although you never lose too much when it goes wrong) and while I wouldn’t advise backing all of their horses blind, it is useful information to keep onside in the battle against the book makers – and the battle against other punters 🙂 – we cant all win!
- Month: June Only
- Trainer: Midgley, P T
- Flat Turf Handicaps Only
- 12/1 or under
Pretty solid and consistent stats. I have tried to push the strike rate up and remove some losers in a logical way but I cannot find anything. Days since last run, placing last time out, age restrictions (3yo only races for example), class, distance etc are all fairly consistent and/or the numbers are so small I cannot justify excluding them. His place strike rate is decent too.
I would be cautious of his runners at Haydock, where he is 0/8, and Newcastle 0/6, but they are not strong numbers on which to make a betting decision.
He is 2/80, 15 places with horses priced over 12/1. The market is a decent guide as to the chances of his runners.
Coincidentally I read some betting advice from a respected Value tipster, that I received in my inbox. One of the points was that you should not follow systems with an odds cap. What a load of rubbish – in my humble opinion. By all means, if you think 2/80 are good stats to back his horses bigger than 12/1 by all means go ahead. How, especially with trainer based systems, the market cannot be a decent guide, I have no idea. But, maybe that is just me. Now he will have winners priced over 12/1 and a few will place, but it doesnt happen very often, they are hard to find, and will lose you money long term. (the rest of the advice from this Harvard Graduate was very good mind, and he no doubt makes more money than I do, I just disagreed with that point :))
Here is his record during the other 8 months when he has runners on the turf…
(I may occasionally highlight any qualifiers but not systematically. I have said it before, but getting a HorseRaceBase account for £10 a month is one of the best investments you could make in my opinion, if you like stats, systems etc etc. Qualifiers for the next day are usually up by 7pm the night before. And they have no affiliate scheme so hopefully you can trust my motives!)
Some of my bets today…
As well as HorseRaceBase you all know that Geegeez Gold is the other piece of kit that I couldn’t do without. I have never been an enthusiastic user of Speed ratings, but Matt has got some pretty good ones on his racecards and they are interesting. Anyway, I have paid for them so I should probably use them! As you know I like finding front runners that may lead all the way and I am starting to find my feet again this flat season. So, I have started to play around with finding those that are ahead on speed ratings and look like they could dominate. I backed King of Paradise on that basis at Hamilton the other day and he romped home at 10/1. There were two others at 9/1 and 5/1 as well that won – I did think they may lead, but as it happened the jockeys knew more than I did as there was loads of pace in the race that I didnt spot (still a hard game) They both tracked it and were never further back than mid division, grinding out victories in the final furlong as they passed tiring rivals.
With that said, there are a few today that qualify on my ‘rules’ above. I must stress these are not ‘official bets’ to be recorded in the blogs official results as I have not looked at the races in much depth. I clicked on the Instant Expert tab to ensure they were suited to today’s conditions, checked their speed rating and that they would lead, or be up with the pace (with no excuse). I am playing with smaller stakes than I usually do and we will see how this develops…
- 5.25 Newcastle – Lazy Sioux 5/1
- 8.50 Haydock – Craggaknock 5/1
Two more of interest, that won’t necessarily lead but wont have an excuse. The latter will be held up in what looks like a race with loads of pace in it, which should be ideal. The former will track the pace I think – the only concern is if there is any rain, he needs Good to Firm I think
- 3.45 Newcastle Long Shadow 5/1
- 7.45 Haydock Muqarred 9/4 (was 10/3)
A quick moan…
It will be interesting to see how they get on. Please don’t moan if they all lose. One reader made a comment a couple of days ago that irked me, but that is life. (at least he was polite) The point of my blog is to make profits yes, but also to provide information and highlight my own approach that some of you may find interesting and that may help your betting. (i am always interested in what works for you too) I bet to make profit and have fun, I don’t bet to find as many winners as I can. If you back anything I put up and can’t handle losing, this is probably the wrong blog for you 🙂 This blog has had long losing runs with ‘official’ bets, and it will in the future, but it has also found two 33/1 winners and nearly a 40/1 winner, as well as various others. I dont ‘tip’. I will never just throw horses out there without telling you why I like them. The blog is in decent profit since I started ‘advising’ stakes so it is up to you. I know most of you get that, so thanks, but for those of you who don’t believe I am blogging for good reasons, or that I genuinely want to make profits for readers (i back everything i advise with my own money) then please don’t bother reading the blog again. And I am still learning, as we all are. My approach to Aintree was wrong, and parts of Cheltenham. I don’t have all the answers, and still make mistakes. And I am very self critical of my own performance, especially when a horse bolts up that I didnt consider! Cheers.
P.S I welcome comments and constructive/positive/negative (polite) feedback. I just don’t like the ‘you haven’t given me a winner today, you are useless’ type comments 🙂