A few for Tuesday 21/04/15

UPDATE: Well sods law would dictate that the day I put up some stats horses of interest they all run appallingly but that is the nature of the beast. These micro angles will tick along in the background and with any luck Fanshawe will make at least 10 points profit or so this year. Aksoun doubled in price which suggested it wasn’t his day. I am no jockey and don’t really get annoyed/upset with poor rides (i take the view that it all evens itself out overtime, and you benefit equally from poor rides in behind your winning selections every now and then) however all I will say is that arguably all 4 of the ‘qualifiers’ received interesting assistance from the saddle, to my untrained eye! Maybe next time 🙂 At the end of the day none of them were good enough to trouble the judge. 

 

Just a quick post to tell you about 4 horses I will be backing at Kempton this afternoon. 

No form, just a micro angle I follow and one other that stood out. 

Firstly…

 

James Fanshawe and Freddy Tylicki have been nothing but consistent in Kempton in handicaps since teaming up in 2013. 

30 bets/ 10 wins / 17 places / +26 points ISP. 12 points profit last year, 15 in 2013. Solid. 

Today there are three selections… 

3.20: Angle Delight 10/1 

3.55 Celestial Knight 3/1

4.25 Elizona 5/2

 

Interestingly, Fanshawe is also 8/31, 17 places in the last 5 years with his handicap debutants at Kempton. That makes Angel Delight even more interesting. 

Michael Blake also has a handicap debutant runner at Kempton today. 

4.55 Aksoun 7/1 

In the past 5 years he has only had 4 such runners. 2 have won, and 3 have finished placed. The jockey and trainer are also 5 from 9 when teaming up at Kempton, so a couple of things in his favour. 

 

Right, that is it for this short post. I will stress again…none of those horses above are being backed by me due to their form. Trainer habits is the main way in and these angles should continue to provide steady, if unspectacular, profits for the next few years. 

Good Luck 

p.s they may all lose today but over time we should win.

p.p.s I have used Geegeez Gold’s reports to find the records of those trainers with hadicap debutants and the trainer/jockey combos. Very easy to do at the click of a button. 

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

7 Comments

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  • Watching the ATR coverage from Hexham yesterday, Thommo made a comment that I decided to follow up on and check it with Horseracebase

    It was about the trainer W S Coltherd, I have never heard of him so I checked for winners at Hexham and came up with some specially good results that I have created an alert for this trainer on HRB. He is especially good with Chasers but there is also a couple of other meetings for him to be followed and also a few Hurdle race meetings to follow him

    norman 2 years ago Reply


    • Ah interesting, thanks for that Norman. I will make a note to have a look myself.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Nice winner on sat josh,all that hard work pays off,cheers

    John 2 years ago Reply


  • Thanks Josh, for your interestng stats as you say if they don’t win today with that strike rate they are ones to stick with.

    Well done with your Scottish National winner and your later 4-1 winner to..winners have not been easy to pick of late..

    Good Luck

    Tony 2 years ago Reply


  • Josh, after great success on Saturday with two solid form picks and strong analysis of the main race we now have a post totally different that may or may not be a success. I wont be following today but wish you luck once again. Just to explain. Yes I am more of a form man than a stats man, though I do like to find angles where the form is in collaboration with solid stats. Stats though can be very deceiving. I haven’t checked but if I was going to follow you today I would check the SPs of those Fanshaw winners. Why? Because one winner at say 25/1+ could be skewing the profit angle and bang goes your winning in the long run theory. I.E. He may not have another big price winner at Kempton for years. As good a trainer as I think he is and definitely one to follow closely at times. Also backing all three? He is very unlikely to have two let alone a treble on the card and with two at shortish odds a profit from one winner may be a very small one or even a loss. The Blake trained horse has some strong stats and is interesting and may be worthy of a small ew dabble. I do like Bowsers Bold as well though. Wishing you the best of British today and looking forward to more form posts, from a purely selfish point of view.

    Jim 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Jim….that is the point of this blog, I like to provide different angles, It isnt all race/form analysis etc :). This kind of approach forms a part of my daily battle against the bookies and I like sharing them. As you have said, you are more of a form man, I know there will be many readers who also prefer stats.

      Fanshawe…yes I have checked all of that before posting…the fanshawe/freddy angle i have posted about before i think and it has been properly researched. Your point about odds is valid and one to always keep in mind. He hasnt had a qualifier above 14/1 (1 winner at those odds) and his record with runners at 8/1 or shorter is 9/28, +17 points.

      I have backed every one of his qualifiers since i researched the angle, about 10 points up so far. I have a variety of such micro angles, especially trainer/jockeys, many of which have been shared before. As ever, what people do with the info is up to them 🙂 Some, and I occasionally do, will use form to help with the analysis.

      I should add – the sign of a ‘tip’ following ‘proper analysis’ is when I put a staking amount next to the horse. Those above are there for interest, and wont count in official blog results which i record.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • Fair enough Josh, but as I mentioned in a previous post having a ‘proper analysis’ and staking amount for official blog results alongside of interest/stats based choices is a bit of a conflict of interests. It would be interesting to compare the results of one v another if you don’t mind sharing your unofficial non blog results. Or nay be you need two separate blogs. As I said good luck today.

        Jim 2 years ago Reply


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