Well Day 1 was generally disappointing but thankfully On The Fringe rescued the day and at least we had a winner to cheer. We also had a 25/1 third in the last – alas I backed it win only, a mistake I will try and avoid today. A 3.5 point loss on Day 1 was far from ideal but there is no time to dwell during a Festival…
Following a perfectly reasonable comment below I should add that these are my thoughts on where my money is going. (this is a free blog and not a paid for tipping service 🙂 ) I am at the races for all three days and therefore like to have an interest in every race. Cheltenham and Aintree are a one off from an ‘action side of things’ and of course there are races and race types that I wouldn’t normally bet in day to day. Hopefully you can tell from the write ups where I think I have some idea in my own mind. Clearly in the bumper I dont have a clue and you would be foolish to back that horse blind based on my words alone 🙂 The aim is always to provide something interesting that may help you in your own betting. You may agree with some selections, you will disagree with many more!
(I should add I spent more time in the pub last night than intended so analysis/study has been a bit lighter than usual. However, given I put quite a bit of time into Day 1 maybe that doesn’t really matter!)
Party Rock 33/1 1/2 point EW
Some Buckle 10/1 1 point win
An interesting race. Given Party Rock’s course form and the fact he looked like he was going close in this race last year when falling two out I had to have something on at 33/1. He may not be the same horse as his form is patchy and he isn’t getting any younger. To my eye, based on horses last 4 runs, there doesnt look to be loads of pace in this race. Party Rock has been handily ridden in the past, and held up more recently, so I hope they revert to positive tactics.
Some Buckle is very unexposed and should enjoy the step up in trip. His handicap ability is unknown at this trip and hence could have quite a bit in hand. He was the one that caught my eye most near the top of the market. Given what could be a slow pace for such a large field i hope Denis O Regan doesnt have him too far back!!
I backed Theinval LTO at Kempton (when highlighted on the blog) and he won impressively. There is still more to come from him and maybe I wont be able to resist a saver bet. Nexius also interests me at a price but may not have much in hand anymore.
Clearly The Saint James is going to go well, and could cruise in. He was over 6/1 last night and I dont want to take 4s in what should be a competitive race.
Glingerburn 9/4 1.5 point win
He is the form horse on everything he has done so far. On what we have seen on the track he should be winning this. Of course it is never that easy as the race is full of unexposed types. He is the most likely winner I think and 9/4 is an ok price given the rest have to step up on what they have done. The selection is still improving as well. The horse he beat LTO ran well in 3rd yesterday in a G1.
Irish Cavalier 9/1 1 point win
I cant have the favourite at the price given the niggles over his jumping. If he has a fluent round he probably wins but I have to take him on. Irish Cavalier comes here in great form and ‘looks like’ he will appreciate the step up in trip. It has been said connections have always thought this horse could reach the top so we will see if they are right. He will have to improve on his decent handicap win LTO.
Al Ferof 13/2 1.5 point win
There are people who will follow hot yards at Festivals and do well. I would be surprised if Nicholls’ doesnt have another winner here this year given his yard is on fire. Gordon Elliot is clearly one to keep onside as well.
Al Ferof has a great record fresh and I cant see him not putting up a good fight in this. Everything points to this having been the target and I expect a bold run from a horse that will be fresh.
There are plenty of dangers. I backed Balder Succes last time where his jumping went to pot. All his wins have been in smaller fields and I suspect he may make errors again. He qualifies for the Alan King micro angle as well and if having a clear round has a chance. I couldnt back him with confidence on the back of his last run. Don Cossak has a chance as well but had a hard race last time (which I think did for Hargam who did look ‘dull’ in the paddock pre race) Champagne Fever needs to prove his class over fences in my opinion but he will get the chance here in optimum conditions. This will be the best chase field he has faced I think over this trip and of course a case could be made for him. Mullins is now 1/51 here since 2007.
Fary Rath 33/1 1/2 point EW 5 places
Bobcatbilly 40/1 1/2 point EW 5 places
Rajdhani Express/Bless The Wings are interesting
Clearly a case could be made for the top four in the market but for one reason or another I want to take them all on. Rajdhani Express is the one I would take out of the top 4 although horses have historically struggled form this kind of mark. However, this race keeps getting upgraded so maybe a higher class of animal will start winning. I will probably have something on his at the track.
The other two fit the profile for this race (although so did 17 others!!) but having gone through every horse these were two left that most interested me at monster odds. The will both like the ground and the trip and if taking to the fences should run decent races.
Bless The Wings will also carry some change of mine given the form of the yard and while this trip may be a bit sharp now I think Ellliot has found him out and rekindled his enthusiasm for the game.
Vyta Du Roc 4/1 1 point win
Ordo Ab Chao 14/1 1/2 point win
The first is a qualifier for the Henderson micro system – yet to have a winner- and a bold show looks likely. Alan King has a decent record in this race and this horse also fits his micro system. They will do for me. The fav is clearly well fancied but is a bit inexperienced for this based on historical results and also didnt run in a quality race last time out, which is a negative.
Virnon – 33/1
1/2 point EW (quite rightly pointed out that I shouldnt attach staking advice when I have admitted I dont really have a strong opinion/any idea on this race esp from a form perspective.)
(no real clue, less so than usual 🙂 )
I dont have a clue! My usual way into this race is to back Nigel Twiston Davis horses each way, which has served me well in recent years. However his intended runner has been withdrawn. Alan Swinbank is 1/14, 3 places in this race. Given the odds and the jockey booking that will do for me. I havent looked at the form of all the runners as it wouldnt help me much. There have been some monster price winners of this over the last 10 years and as such it is always worth chancing something at a tasty price.