Lincoln + Grand National Trends/Stats/Trainers + 3 more ’90 Day Trainers’

I am going away for a long weekend to Berlin (any suggestions for places to visit much appreciated – the more beer related the better 🙂 ) As such this will be the only post until next week.  

The trends/stats for the Lincoln are below. Hopefully they help you find the winner, or at least create a shortlist of likely winners. 

The Grand National stats then follow as do three more ’90 Day’ trainers. 

My Aintree stats/trends guide, which looks at every race in detail, plus some more general stats, will be emailed out next week once complete. 

Enjoy the rest of your week and your weekend. 

Josh 

 

(for info ‘places’ includes winners as well)

 

Lincoln

Trends/Stats/Trainers

  • 10/18 Top 4 LTO
    • No strong trends on finishing position. The other 8 winners finished 6th– 27th LTO,
  • 18/18 40/1 or under
    • 0/58. 3 places 50/1 or above
  • 17/18 aged 4-6
    • 7+: 1/62, 13 places
  • 17/18 carried 9-5 or less
    • 1/38, 7 places, carried more
  • 18/18 rated 86 or above
    • 0/43, 5 places, rated below this
  • 6/18 favourites (inc joint) have won, from 21 runners. 10 have won or placed. +12 ISP
  • 18/18 came from two rest patterns-
    • 4/47, 12 places, ran 8-15 days ago
    • 14/222, 44 places, ran 121-365 days ago
    • 0/130 runners, 16 places all others
  • 16/18 had never ran over further than 11.5f furlongs in career
    • 2/69, 10 places had ran over 12f or further previously
    • 0/15, 1 place, had yet to run over 8f

Other Stats

  • 1/66, 12 places, had more than 1 run in previous 90 days
  • 0/45, 10 places, had 7 or more career wins to their name
    • 8/73 runners had 3 career wins, 15 places. (44% winners, from 18% runners)
    • 14/18 had between 2-4 career wins. (78% winners, 51% runners)
      • 2/32, 6 places, had yet to win
    • Only 2/93, 19 places, had 4 or more handicap wins to their name
    • 17/18 were running in the same class as LTO, or up just 1 class.
      • Drop in class from LTO: 1/52, 8 places
      • Up 2 or more: 0/20, 0 places
    • 16/18 had between 4-10 runs in the previous 365 days (232 runners, 52 places)
      • 11+ : 1/112, 14 places
      • 0-3: 1/61, 6 places
    • Unfuwain, as dam stallion, has sired 2 of the last 4 winners, Sweet Lightening and Ocean Tempest. (2/3, 3 places) Just one of those things no doubt but he is the only sire or dam sire with more than 1 winner to their name.
    • 16/18 ran in a C2 or C3 LTO, admittedly from ¾ of all runners
      • 1/52, 8 places, ran in C1 LTO
      • 0/20, 0 places ran in C4 or below
    • Track LTO. Of interest
      • Doncaster 0/29, 1 place
      • Kempton 0/14, 3 places
      • Lingfield 2/46, 8 places
      • Newmarket Rowley 6/71, 13 places
      • Wolverhampton 3/82, 14 places
    • 17/18 ran in a handicap LTO
      • 1/101 runners, 13 places, did not

Trainers

Of Interest-

  • Channon 0/11, 1 place
  • P F I Cole 3/8, 3 places
  • Easterby 0/9, 0 places
  • Easterby 0/7, 0 places
  • Fahey 1/28, 9 places
  • Haggas 2/5, 3 places
  • Nicholls 0/23, 0 places
  • JJ Quinn 2/9, 3 places
  • Ryan 0/11, 0 places
  • Stoute 1/3, 1 place
  • M Tompkins 2/9, 4 places

****

The Aintree e-book/pdf will be sent out next week once complete. For now you can look at the Grand National Trends/Stats/Trainers/Profile below. 

As always focus on those trends and stats which are of most interest to you. Most of the information is relevant but some of it is there for interest. Coneygree is now the stand out example that ‘stats are there to be broken’ and as such they should just be used as a guide. 

 

Grand National Steeple Chase

Trends

  • 14/18 Top 5 LTO
    • 16/18 Top 8 LTO
    • Fell: 1/14, 1 place
    • PU: 1/106, 6 places
    • UR: -15, 0 places
      • 9th or worse, (inc Fell,PU,UR): 2/244 runners, 10 places
    • 16/18 Age 9-11
      • 8 or younger: 1/150, 12 places (8yo 1/104, 12 places)
      • 12+: 1/75, 3 places
    • 18/18 carried 11-6 or less
      • 0/57, 6 places carried above this
      • 2/81, 10 places, carried 11-2 – 11-6 (those 2 wins came in the last 5 years)
      • So, 16/18 carried 11-1 or less
    • 16/18 rated 150 or below
      • 2/119, 14 places, were rated 151+
    • 18/18 ran 16-60 days ago
      • 1-15 days: -/24, 2 places
      • 61 days+: 0/127, 10 places
    • 18/18 ran at least 3 times in the previous 365 days.
      • 0/120, 9 places, had 0-2 runs
    • 18/18 had ran at least 3 times that season
      • 0/164, 14 places had ran 0-2 times.
    • 18/18 had RAN over at least 3m1f (25f)
      • 0/89, 5 places, had yet to run over at least 25f
      • 16/18 had ran over at least 27f previously
        • 25f-26.5f: 2/134, 11 places
      • 18/18 had WON over at least 3m (24f)
        • 0/180, 9 places, had not

 

Other Stats

  • 0 runs in previous 90 days: 0/73, 7 places
  • 0 wins in handicap chases: 1/211, 13 places
    • 5+ wins in handicap chases: 1/56, 8 places
  • 3+ wins this season: 0/42, 3 places
    • 8/385 runners, 33 places had 0 wins this season
    • 8/196, 28 places had 1 win
    • 2/81, 8 places had 2 wins
  • 6/244 runners, 22 places had NEVER ran at the track before. So, don’t necessarily be put off by those with 0 track experience
    • 12/460 runners had ran at track (Aintree in general, not necessarily GB fences) at least once. As a % of winners they are pretty much the same.
  • 0 wins in any type of handicap: 1/175 runners, 11 places
  • Origin of Horse
    • GB: 2/143, 10 places
    • IRE: 12/390, 51 places
    • FR: 3/154, 10 places
    • NZ: 1/9, 1 place
    • USA/GER: 0/8, 0 places
  • 16/18 did not wear any kind of headgear
    • Cheekpieces: 0/52, 3 places
    • Blinkers: 2/79, 5 places
    • Visor: 0/15, 0 places
  • 0/72 runners, 8 places, ran in a race worth more than £75k to the winner LTO
  • 13/13 that ran in a UK race (not IRE) last time out, ran in a C1 or C2 race
    • 0/82, 6 places ran in C3 or below
    • 14/18 ran in a C1 or C2 LTO (both UK + IRE)
  • 0/18 ran in a G1 or G2 LTO: 0/144 runners, 14 places
  • 0/43, 1 place made their debut age 2 or 3
    • 2/109, 12 places made their debut aged 8 or older
  • 16/18 had placed 6 or more times in chases (non-handicap and handicap)
    • 2/258, 17 places, had placed 5 or fewer times in chases
    • Those two wins were in 1997 and 1998. Since 2010: 0/81, 2 places

 

Trainers

Of interest-

  • Bowen 0/9, 1 place
  • Elliot 1/8, 1 place
  • Henderson 0/19, 0 places
  • Hobbs 0/21, 3 places
  • King 0/10, 0 places
  • McCain 1/10, 1 place
  • Mullins 1/27, 3 places
  • Nicholls 1/55, 4 places
  • Jonjo O’Neill 1/27, 6 places
  • Pipe 1/23, 2 places
  • Smith 1/11, 1 place
  • NTD 2/39, 3 places
  • Williams 1/18, 1 place

 

MICRO PROFILE

  • Aged 9-11
  • Carrying 11-6 or less
  • 3+ runs this season
  • 1+ wins in handicaps
  • 6+ places in chases
  • NOT G1 or G2 LTO
  • Ran 16-60 days ago

(this ‘profile’ finds the 2 horses to have won from a rating of 151+: 2/12 runners, 3 places)

That would give you 14/18 winners, and all of the last 10, from 87 ‘qualifiers’. (didn’t find the winner in 1997, 1998, 2002 and 2004)

I would also use the following (which I am unable to query/test in the system builder)

  • Horse had ran over at least 25f in their career
  • Horse had won over at least 24f in their career.

Ben Aitken, from NarrowingTheField, sent out a free report which highlighted that-

  • 15/15 had won a chase at class 2 level or higher
  • 15/15 had 19+ NH starts

 

****

’90 Day Trainers’ 

You can find the original three trainers by clicking on the ‘Free Reports/Systems’ tab at the top of the website. 

There are three more for interest below, specifically looking at Flat/AW trainers in handicaps. 

 

John Gosden

Rules

  • H-Run 90 days: 0 or 1 
  • Handicap (Flat and AW)
  • Class 2 or 3

Results

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 160 45 28.13 91.28 74 46.25 57.05 113.56 70.98 19.89 26 1.41
2015 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -100 -1 -100 -1 2.25 0
2014 30 15 50 53.12 16 53.33 177.07 61.51 205.04 8.88 15 2.18
2013 25 6 24 3.75 14 56 15 5.32 21.28 8.34 21 1.11
2012 48 11 22.92 5.28 19 39.58 11 8.24 17.16 -9.4 26 1.14
2011 35 6 17.14 17.88 15 42.86 51.09 24.58 70.23 11.21 21 1.05
2010 21 7 33.33 12.25 10 47.62 58.33 14.91 70.99 1.86 17 1.85

 

Ralph Beckett

Rules

  • H-Run 90 days: 1 only
  • Handicap (Flat and AW)
  • Class 3,4,5 only
  • 16/1 or under

Results

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 167 41 24.55 79.29 71 42.52 104.6 62.64 7.78 17 1.25
2015 4 3 75 11 3 75 12.17 304.18 2.89 6.5 3.03
2014 33 8 24.24 2.46 14 42.42 5.3 16.05 -3.2 17 1.29
2013 50 13 26 44.55 24 48 55.54 111.08 12.74 17 1.24
2012 23 8 34.78 22.32 12 52.17 29.12 126.6 6.94 15 1.49
2011 23 6 26.09 18 12 52.17 19.84 86.27 8.66 17 1.6
2010 34 3 8.82 -19.04 6 17.65 -17.36 -51.05 -20.25 17 0.51

 

George Margarson

Rules

  • H-Run 90 Days: 0 or 1
  • Handicap (Flat Turf only)
  • NOT Class 6
  • 25/1 or under

Results

  Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 55 11 20 116 14 25.45 174.92 318.03 14.98 26 2.04
2014 17 4 23.53 53 4 23.53 87.06 512.14 7.7 26 2.27
2013 8 2 25 29 3 37.5 46.84 585.49 8.88 26 2.9
2012 8 0 0 -8 0 0 -8 -100 -8 26 0
2011 12 3 25 32 4 33.33 39.47 328.91 6.84 26 2.56
2010 10 2 20 10 3 30 9.55 95.47 -0.45 17 1.64

 

***

 

 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

12 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, I went to Berlin a couple of years ago on a restaurant industry tour. Most of the trendy places are very up themselves and reminiscent of late 90’s London pretentiousness. The most fun I had was at a rock and roll cafe called White Trash Fast Food. It styles itself a Fine Family Dining Restaurant, Tattoo Shop and Club?????????????
    We ate quite well and enjoyed a set from The Bitches From Hell. I see that last week two of the bands were called Skew Siskins and The Flying Fucks and Kill All Histers.

    It is not a place that takes itself too seriously and is probably the most authentically German joint I have ever been too albeit of a certain type. It is a good place to end up after some beers elsewhere and is certainly unlike anywhere else. http://www.whitetrashfastfood.com/
    Hugh

    Hugh 2 years ago Reply


  • That should be Kill All Hipsters – naturally

    Hugh 2 years ago Reply


    • thanks for that Hugh – certainly sounds worth checking out!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • It’s a stats breaker but Penitent drops in class back to a h’cap; there is heavy rain up to and including Saturday, and no horse loves the mud more. At 33/1 it might pay for your trip! Have a fine w/e.
    A bottle of trockenbeerenauslese (TBA) would be nice 😉

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Chris, i will have a look, and try a bottle of TBA! Certainly if there is lots of rain that is more likely to make the stats irrelevant, assuming most of previous runnings have been on better ground.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh

    In relation to the National just wondered what your interpretation is of 6+ places in a Chase. For example 3rd of 7 runners is that a place? or 4th of 16+ runners in a Handicap is that a place?

    Eric 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Eric…that is a very good question and something I did wonder about…I believe it goes in line with standard EW terms. so for 7 runners it would be top 2, and yes top 4 for 16+ in handicaps. 4 runners or less is win only. Top 3 for the rest. So i would say 3rd of 7 won’t have been included as a place in those stats. I will probably use this stat last to narrow down the field, and if in doubt include them in your list anyway. I will wait until closer to the race before I look at it as still too many declared runners for me to want to look through.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Thanks for the info Josh. When I worked in Berlin (quite a while ago) the best bars were in the Mitte area especially Hackeshere Market and Alexander Platz.
    It might have gone all up market now though. The Checkpoint Charlie museum is good and allows a short break from drinking.

    Mark Beech 2 years ago Reply


  • Berlin. Lovely place, ran the marathon there twice. Enjoy! A walking tour around the Brandenburg Gate area is really really interesting to take in the remains of both the Nazis and The Communists, that city had it bad…Divided…. As above Charlie is worth a look, very tourist but you have to go there… Worth taking in that culture by day as well as a few beers and a few more beers by nacht!

    Bristol Dave 2 years ago Reply


  • Sorry if this is a stupid question but, in your 90 Day Trainers system what does “H-Run 90 days: 0 or 1 ” mean?

    cj 2 years ago Reply


    • No problem… Number of times a horse had ran in previous 90 days. So O,1 or both in the last 90 days

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Many Thanks Josh your stats make such interesting reading enjoy and good luck with the Doncaster meeting…

    Tony 2 years ago Reply


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