Cheltenham: Grade 1 Chases

Cheltenham Grade 1 Chases

6 Grade 1 Chases: Arkle (2m); RSA (3m.5f); Queen Mother (2m); JLT Novice (2m4f); Ryanair Chase (2m5); Gold Cup (3m2f)

Headline stats 2010-

273 / 26 wins / 75 places

Odds

Only 2 winners of these Grade 1 chases have been priced over 16/1.

92 bets / 2 wins / 10 places / AE 0.71

Those over 33/1 are: 33 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

21 of the winners were priced 10/1 or under: 122 bets / 21 wins / 54 places / AE 0.91

That is 80% of all Grade 1 Chase winners from 44% of all runners.

For now I will just focus attention on those priced 16/1 or under which account for 24 of the 26 winners from 176 bets…

For now I will also look at all races together. By distance you could look at the Arkle/Queen mother; RSA/Gold Cup; JLT/Ryanair. And of course the races span different ages and experiences which will affect the below.

 

Breeding

GB: 21 bets / 3 wins / 14.29% / 6 places / -10.47ISP / AE 1.03

IRE: 94 bets / 15 winners / 15.96% / +45.25 IPS / AE 1.23

FR: 57 bets / 6 winners / 10.53% / -33IPS / AE 0.53

German: 4 bets / 0 wins / 0 places

At this stage I wouldn’t say you could be put off by breeding alone. The Irish clearly do best against market expectations. It is noteworthy, that French breds perform 47% below market expectations.

 

Age

Of some note, although of course we are dealing with small numbers:

5 yo: 4 bets / 0 wins / 1 place

10 yo: 14 bets / 1 win / 8 places

11/12o: 8 bets / 0 wins / 5 places

So, the older generation are 1 from 22 indicating it may be best to stick to those with younger legs.

 

Career Runs

Of note, those with 7 or fewer Career Runs are: 16 bets / 1 win / 3 places / AE 0.48

** On closer inspection that 1 win was Long Run. Horse Race Base does not take account of French form, it doesn’t appear in horses records. Long Run had had plenty of runs in France before his Gold Cup win..

So, removing him would leave: 15 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Career Wins

If we remove Long Run again…those with 3 or fewer career wins to their name are: 15 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Career Wins in Grade 1 Races  

0 wins in Grade 1: 70 bets / 4 wins / 16 places / -39 ISP / AE 0.49

1 win: 41 bets / 9 wins / 22 places /  +26 ISP / AE 1.34

2 win: 29 bets / 8 wins / 13 places /  +27 ISP / AE 1.81

3 win: 10 bets / 2 wins / 3 places / +8 IPS AE 1.26

4 wins: 14 bets / 1 win / 7 places / -12 IPS / AE 0.34

5+ wins: 12 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

 

Of those with 0 Grade 1 wins 2 were in the Arkle (Captain Chris/Sprinter Sacre) and 2 were in the RSA (Lord Windermere/Ofaolains Boy)

 

Horses Wins in Chases (all chases in career)

0 chase wins: 0/2

1 chase win: 15 bets / 5 wins / 8 places / AE 2.98

Nothing much else of note. There is an even spread from 2-5, those with 7 or 8 have won 3. Those with 2 chase wins are 1/43 13 places…one of those anomalies maybe.

Interestingly, 4 of the 5 Grade 1 chase winners to have had only 1 chase win to their name were winning the RSA. Just focusing on those with only 1 chase win to their name would have found you the winner every year such horses were competing.

There were no bets in 2011…

But-

2010: Winner 1/1

2012: Winner 1/1

2013: Winner 1/4 … and the 2nd and 3rd  (and 6th) ..so from 4 bets, the 1,2,3

2014: RSA Winner 1/3….2 losers 5th/7th both trained by Nicholls.

So from 9 bets, 4 winners, 2 places…6 wins or places in total.

Not a bad starting stat for that race!

 

Horses Runs in 90 Days

Those that had not run at all in the last 90 days: 20 bets / 1 win / 6 places / AE 0.32

There is a fairly even spread for those with 1-3 runs. 4 runs are 0/2.

 

Days Since Run

Nothing much here at all.

 

Season Runs + Wins

Season Runs. Not much of note however those with 5 runs that season were: 24 bets/ 8 wins / 13 places / +53 IPS / AE 2.46

Those with 6 or more are 0/9, 3 places.

Nothing much on season wins

 

Cheltenham Experience

Let’s start with horses runs at the track…

Let’s look at those that had run at the track in their entire career to date (in whatever race type)…

The only thing of slight interest is those that had never run at Cheltenham before were:

27 bets/ 1 win / 8 places/ AE 0.38

So, a run of sorts at the track looks preferable.

 

Places at Track (career)

Nothing much here. Don’t be put off by those that have never placed… 46 bets / 6 wins / 16 places.

 

Placed in a chase at Cheltenham:

Nothing here either. Those with 3 or more places over fences here are: 27 bets / 2 wins / 12 places

 

Now, how many times a horse previously won a CHASE at Cheltenham?

Nothing of note again. Also nothing of note for those that had won any type of race at the track. There is no disadvantage if you haven’t won here before.

 

Horse runs over the Course and Distance…

Those with 2 or more runs over the course and distance: 31 bets / 1 win / 14 places

 

Class Move*

Class means a move in Grade as well..so a move from G2 to G1 is up 1 class.

Those running in the same class: 48 bets / 10 wins / 17 places / AE 1.17

Up 1 or 2 classes are: 47 bets / 7 wins / 20 places / AE 0.93

Those going up by 3 or more classes are: 22 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

So, class 2 moving up to G1 is a move of 4 classes. Class 2, Listed, G3, G2..G1

That doesn’t look good for Sire De Grugy fans.

 

Class last time out

Those that ran in a Handicap last time out are: 13 bets / 1 win / 6 places. Bobs Worth is the winner, winning the Gold Cup having won a G3 previously.

Grade 1 Last Time out: 81 bets / 15 wins / 31 places / +29 ISP / AE 1.15

Grade 2: 63 bets / 8 wins / 26 places / AE 0.89

Grade 3: 7 bets / 1 win / 4 places / AE 0.81

Listed 0/1

Non-Major (none of the above, C2 or below): 24 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

 

Distance move

Unlike with the handicaps, there is not too much of note here.

Those moving up 4f or more are: 14 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

 

Finishing Position Last Time Out

Nothing much here again.

Won: 88 bets / 15 wins / 35 places / AE 0.87

2nd: 42 bets / 4 wins / 15 places / AE 0.85

3rd: 16 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / AE 0.95

4th: 0/8

5th 5 bets / 2 wins / 3 places

PU: 4 bets / 1 win

6th or worse (exc PU): 13 bets / 0 wins / 2 places

 

Prize Money Last Time Out

Running in races worth £13,000 or less to the winner: 21 bets / 0 wins / 3 places

Those above £100, 000 15 bets / 4 wins / 6 places

 

Track Last Time Out

Ascot: 29 bets / 7 wins / 12 places / AE 1.97

Cheltenham: 18 bets / 1 win / 4 places / 0.32

Kempton: 21 bets / 6 wins / 9 places / AE 1.35

Leopardstown: 37 bets / 5 wins / 15 places / 1.01

Newbury: 24 bets / 2 wins / 8 places / 0.45

Punchestown: 9 bets / 2 wins / 6 places / AE 1.33

So, all 24 winners come from those 6 tracks so far.

Removing the odds cap and the other two winners come from Doncaster (1/11) and another winner for Leopardstown. (6/46)

Sandown: 8 bets/ 0 wins / 2 places

 

Position in Odds Market Last Time Out

Again not too much here with a spread from Fav through to 4th in the market. Those that were 5th or worst: 17 bets / 1 win / 4 places

 

Horses 1st EVER run…

Of interest, those that finished 1st or 2nd on their racing debut: 117 bets / 19 wins / 49 Places / AE 0.99

Those that finished 3rd or worse: 59 bets / 5 wins / 16 places / AE 0.64

 

Trainers

I have removed the odds cap for this just so we can see their overall record.

Remember, this is from 2010….

Positive Records (2 or more wins)…

Henry De Bromhead (2/7 4places); Culloty (2/2); Henderson (8/35 15 places) ; Jonjo O’Neill (4/7 5 places) ; Pipe (2/11 2 places);

One time winners… NTD (1/6 2 places); Tizzard (1/5 2 places); C A Murphy (1/3 3 places); Moore (1/1); Hobbs (1/10 1 place); Harrington (1/3 1 place); Curtis (1/2 1 place); C Byrnes (1/2 2 places)

And….to the stats that we are all aware of, or have heard muted, but that still cause surprise…

Mullins: 30 bets / 0 wins / 5 places

Nicholls: 36 bets / 0 wins / 4 places

King: 9 bets / 0 wins / 3 places (not so bad in truth)

It will be interesting to see how they get on. Maybe, for the time being, they have lost the knack of preparing the big guns for these G1 Chases. Or, they haven’t had the firepower, or there is another reason. Given that Henderson, from a similar amount of bets, has had 8 winners in that time, they clearly need to do something differently. It could just be one of those freaks of the sport, we shall soon find out.

 

Jockeys

Geraghty (9/26 12 places); Lynch (2/9 5 places); McCoy (4/19 11 places); Russell (3/13 5 places); Scudamore (2/13 4 places);

Walsh (0/24 3 places); Townend (0/12 1 place); Fehily (0/9 1 place);

 

***

‘Winning’ Profile…

In the Grade 1 Chases

  • 16/1 or below
  • Age: 6-10
  • 1-3 run in last 90 days
  • 8+ career runs
  • 1 run + at Cheltenham
  • 4+ career wins
  • Ran in a race last time out worth more than £13k to the winner. 

That would leave you: 101 bets / 21 wins / 44 places / +54 IPS / AE 1.2

Mullins and Nicholls are responsible for 23 of those losers. Surely one, or both of them, will have  a G1 Chase winner this year…

 

UPDATE 

Using the above profile but with no odds cap you get the following stats…

150 bets / 22 wins / 50 places

Those priced 22/1 or over: 35 bets / 0 wins / 3 places 

18/1 to 20/1: 14 bets / 1 win / 3 places 

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

3 Comments

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  • Could I suggest a change to your information and evaluation that might help us?
    Winning odds are irrelevant when considering a race for ante post purposes, being in marked contrast to current pricing across the markets and with late betting moves still to come. If your data omitted the odds metric at this stage, you could post a second set with this added, say 48 hours before the meeting, for those who had not been able to bet before and for others to update their own positions with market info.

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Chris, I have added an update above to the ‘winning profile’ with no odds cap and a breakdown. I wont be going back through all of the stats 🙂

      I personally wont be betting until nearer the off now and I know some people would argue that odds on the morning of the race could be bigger than now given how bookies will try and get your business. Who knows, but hopefully that is helpful for however you like to play them.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi Josh – could you please send all your selections to Ross Noble from now on lets see how he fares with them….
    He is a Northern “comedian” and I get depressed just hearing his name mentioned and I would like to share your selections with him also…

    Rad

    robert 2 years ago Reply


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