Pace Wins The Race:19/02/15 (4 bets)

I have written an update on today’s runner on that post. Suffice to say it was disappointing all round. However, I will get my money back with interest on him at some point in the future. 

PACE: 8/44 +9.83

Anyway, onto Thursday which promises to be an exciting day…

I am relying on two sets of connections who generally do well when teaming up at their respective course. Sayer and Quinlan are 3/3 at Sedgefield and this looks like a developing partnership full of promise. I am also relying on McCain and Maguire who are 30/106 at Musselburgh with a near 50% win and place strike rate…

Obviously I expect all of the selections to lead or be prominent which should give them an advantage on two tracks that are fairly sharp. 

ALL best are 1 point win. 

Sedgefield 

2.30 Discoverie 10/3 

3.40 Turtle Cask 6/1 

These horses are both in form and come here with every chance. I am hoping they both go close to seeing all their rivals off from the front. 

Dicoverie…

A course and distance winner who appears to be improving. His penultimate win is working out very well with 5 subsequent winners including himself and the 2nd, 3rd and 5th. That now looks a strong race for the grade and I expect the jockey to bounce him out in front again. This is a step up in class but the only other two already proven at this level have questions to answer. Hi Dancer, if fit, would be interesting but this 12 yo is racing after nearly 300 days off the track. How could I back him! Light The City is a c4 winner but is in no form at all. Not for me. Astrasound was beaten by the selection last time and likes finishing second. And the rest…well I couldnt back any based on their most recent form. 

Turtle Cask…

a fairly comfortable course and distance winner two runs ago, he failed last time when stepped up to 25 furlongs. I think he simply didnt stay and the fact he is turned out quickly gives me the impression nothing was wrong with him. His opposition all have serious questions to answer. 2 make returns after lengthy breaks, and three are in awful form. I fear Getabuzz as he is 2/2 over course and distance and when on song has a touch of class. Maybe the Easterby’s are doing a job here but I couldnt back him on what he has shown recently. He has been awful. Still Blue Native Steps into handicap company and could run well. But I dont like backing these types with no real winning form as yet and the trainer only has a modest record here. He is entitled to respect because he is unexposed. Premier Sagas was beaten by the selection last time here and i see no reason for that to be overturned. He is 11 as well. Snowed In’s trainer has yet to have a winner here from 22 starts and he needs to prove he truly stays this extra furlong. His usual jockey also deserts him for our selection. Hopefully a good sign. All in all 6/1 is too big when I think he is the only one without serious questions to answer in the race. Morning with Ivan may try and take him on up front but he should be able to see him, and the rest, off. 

I have a very good feeling about these two and will be thoroughly disappointed if they both dont go very close.

 

Musselburgh  

I am taking a bit more of a risk here but McCain is in great form and the two selections last ran when his stable was under a very large dark cloud. Indeed it has taken up until the last few weeks for the stable to really fire. Because of this I think we can ignore their recent runs and I think they have both been slightly underestimated…

3.30 Wilcos Mo Chara 9/2 (skybet)

4.05 Silver Gent 13/2 (skybet) 

Wilcos… an awful race where most of these are in no form whatsoever. This is the horses handicap debut and having said I dont like backing this type of runner generally he has won a NHF race here and a novice hurdle. He has proved he can win and bar his run last time (ran at time when yard was in peril, and may simply had an off day) he has been consistent. Maybe if there were more in form horses in the race I would leave this alone but knowing he is the only out and out front runner in race (based on recent history at least) i just though Maguire will stack them up, kick for home, and put the race to bed. Ginger Jack also makes his handicap hurdle debut and could be anything. But his novice form, or any jumps for for that matter, is not as good as the selection. Yes he could be ok and he is clearly a danger but he tends to be held up and has been racing on galloping tracks. This is a different test and it will be interesting to see how he gets on. Claude Carter is the other danger as he is generally consistent over this course and distance. 

 

Silver Gent…This is the most risky bet of the four but my instinct says he should run a decent enough race and that 13/2 is too big. Based on everything i can see, I can only think this race is going to Present Lodger, Endeavour or the selection. If they all fail i simply have no idea who will pick up the pieces. The bottom 4 have fitness and form questions. Rear Admiral could run ok. I have backed Present Lodger on his last two runs but I cant take 6/4. These are also very different conditions from his two wins which have been in a bog on quite galloping tracks. If he handles these conditions and going this way round, he has a very good chance. He likes to lead and if Maguire cant get to the front he should track him closely. Endeavour has yet to win over this far but has the master James Reveley on board. He has such a good clock in his head that if they dont go flat out up top he may get his charge home. Silver Gent has yet to prove his liking for fences but he will love the ground and the trip. They clearly think he is a chaser in the making. His run in October can be put down to maybe not being fit and his last run was when the stable was in poor form. It may have also been too far and he probably hated the ground. He is a prominent runner and has jumped well on his two chase starts. He could be very well handicapped and I expect him to leave his two previous runs behind and give it a good go. 

 

This could be a fun and profitable day. It could be a not so fun and very unprofitable day. However I think we have four horses who have decent chances and I am excited to watch them run. 

Urban Code also runs but is 2/1. He should be able to see them off from the front but is a bit short for me this time. 

I also had a look at Chelmsford, where front runners have done well recently. Putin is interesting but is long in the tooth and had yet to win above C6 on the AW. He drops down from 8f to 6f but he could try and make all again. There was nothing else there that caught the eye.

 

***

 

I have spent most of the day working on a rather long article looking at Cheltenham Handicaps. This first article looks at hurdles, includes a couple of micro angles, and will be posted up tomorrow.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

4 Comments

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  • hi Josh really enjoy your posts, especially on systems analysis. .Check out the sire progeny …i use this to eliminate runners over 7 furlongs as I think this is a specialist distance requiring both speed and stamina..Dark Angel sire and progeny especially good so worth a check…also Oasis Dream progeny when favs over 5 furlongs have a good strike rate…will be interesting to know what you think about this approach if and when you use this way of analysing races.gd lck John

    john 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi John, that is much appreciated thanks. I would say systems are more my area, (still finding my feet on the ‘Advising’ side 🙂 ) and you will enjoy what I am about to share on Cheltenham handicaps which will be up in next couple of hours…
      Yes agree about sire progeny but it is nothing i have ever looked at in much depth. I dont tend to back unexposed horses trying something new…as such I focus on horses that have proved they like conditions…however, when backing something trying a new trip for first time, especially on the flat, I would look at sire progency…which with Horse Race Base you can do at the click of a button for any race. Looks at their progency at track, distance, age, class etc.

      I will certainly have a look at the flat, and sprint distances in particular as they will be a big focus for me during flat season.

      A reader got in touch with a system for MILAN over jumps. I played with it a bit and since tracking it 2 days ago had a second at 33/1 (just nabbed on line) 2 winners at 2/1 and 1 unplaced.

      Midnight Legend is also a great jumps sire for further analysis and when I have time I will dig into him… I am sensing a Sire post coming on.

      Will check out what you have mentioned,
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • I’ve just looked at the 4.05 race at Musselburgh.

    Silver Gent does look to have a good chance but I do worry whether him and Present Lodger will get into a speed duel up front (although Mussleburgh is a speedy track that favours front-runners).

    Endeavour is very interesting and I think he does stay 2m4f (especially round a sharp track). Last time out suggests he stays (although he was held up) and he hjas won at 2m2f staying on well. Yard form is a big concern though.

    Rear Admiral seems to have a lot to do but like you say Mick Easterby may have laid him out. He’s been backed this morning pretty strongly too.

    Silent Show has achieved nothing for his current small yard, whilst Red Tanber (although he loves Musselburgh) and Gin Cobbler seem to have lost it. I wouldn’t ignore Blueside Boy though. His point form would suggest he likes decent ground, and his last chase run was his best (in 3 attempts). He is with a good yard (that are in form) and he may well have needed the run last time out too after shaping well. Admittedly, that may be the case again today and he has been drifting in the market. But I think he may be worth a bet.

    Matt 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Matt,
      Yes agree about Pace burn up…I am just hoping Maguire is sensible…he doesnt have to lead and can just sit behind. If he is quick enough early to get the lead even better but not essential. If neither are sensible they will most likely set it up for something.
      Your analysis of Blueside Boy is decent…i just didnt like fact he had been off track for while..i find i am guessing with these types. If he is fit then he is open to improvement.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


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