Pace Wins The Race: Selection 17/02/15

Monday was a poor day personally, no hiding from that… it was horrible, and although not too much damage was done everything was poor. Two horses I thought would lead (their preferred running style on most recent starts) were ‘surprisingly’ held up and never really looked dangerous. One profile horse ran ok in second, the other was up to his usual tricks. The Last Bridge isnt really one to trust but he does normally come good at this time of year – i will want  a decent price if I am to back him again however. The 4.30 was a great race and well done to those who got double figures on Knock A Hand. STD sent him to the front and he lead all the way (not his usual running style,although he does track the pace,an example of a jockey winning the race with his tactics), relishing the rain softened ground and outstaying them. Big Water ran well but couldnt catch the leader (i think he stayed and that is a stiff finish) and Maggio ran a decent race in third at good odds. Sir Mangan was poor. Brunettes Only was poor. Anyway I hope you had a better day than I did. Those who follow the Sue Smith Handicap Chase system which I have discussed/given away a few times, will have backed Bennys Well with any luck, who won well at 8/1. In hindsight he could have been a pace bet but when I looked I was slightly put off by his recent form and I thought he would be taken on for the lead. I got that wrong. I didnt read the pace right all day,which goes to show you that even with decent tools this sport can smack you in the face from time to time 🙂 I will go again tomorrow and have moved on. Best to put a day like that into the bin of history and never think about it again. 

 

Tuesday’s selection

3.45 Taunton 

Tornado Milan 7/1 (bet365/betfair sportsbook) 1 point win (apols for confusion, this is an official Pace bet)

UPDATE: Well that was an exciting run. i dont like losing but dont mind as much when you get a good run for your money. Turning in I thought he had them all at it but just couldnt get away enough on the front end and in truth would probably always have been caught by that rival who was fairly well on top come the end. The market leaders were poor and were right to take them on but not to be this time. Against poorer opposition, with an easy lead again, i think he can win from this mark. 

A rather poor day’s racing and I dare say some of you will be surprised with the selection. I just think 7s looks too big for what looked like a different horse last time out. Last time, at this track, he was sent to the front quite early and essentially had a training gallop all the way round. He never came off the bridle, could have won by as far as he liked, and looked to be enjoying every moment. The question is whether the same horse turns up again. He has been inconsistent but responded well to the lack of headgear last time. If he runs with the same enthusiasm I think he will run well for a trainer that has won this race before. The figures, and ratings (RPR/TS) are decent enough and he is open to improvement, having only had 10 hurdle starts. I hope that the jockey sends him to the front and tries to make all. Around this tight, nippy track he could get away from sleeping rivals and have too much up his sleeve come the end – that is the hope. On the other hand he could be outclassed by what could be much better horses. I think 7/1 allows us to take that chance.

Dell Arca is entitled to be Fav, but 2/1 for a horse that has been disappointing given his price tag, isnt a price I would want to take. His best runs have been on galloping tracks and this will be a different test altogether. He tends to be held up and that could be dangerous here. Of course, his class and undoubted ability could well see him through comfortably, but I am content to take him on. Ibis De Rheu could be anything and his price must just be based on his connections and ‘attractive’ profile. He set a steady pace last time but hopefully if Moloney wants to lead he should be able to. This horse could be anything, who knows, but I would want to see more on the track in the UK before backing him. Fox Norton is out of form but clearly has ability based on his form last year. But he needs to get back to showing something like his best, he is another hold up type. Dusky Lark is in form but i think the selection has better form than him here. He is another who was held up last time. The other two have a bit too much to prove for me at the moment.

So, an interesting selection who should give us a run for our money at least until the business end of the race. Hopefully by that time PM has stolen enough from the front to keep going. He has had a big hike in the weights but he was entitled to given how he won last time. I think he can overcome that.

Good Luck

PACE 8/42 =+11.83

 

In the 2.20 Wetherby I am very interested to see how Iconic Rose gets on at 8/1. She gets her preferred good ground for the first time over fences and I will be watching with interest. She is no world beater but should have some chase victories in her with time and hopefully she can run well here. The trip may be on the short side but I expect her to try and make all or track the pace. I couldnt put her up as a selection because she has yet to run well in a chase (ground too heavy both times) and any number of these are open to improvement and could be given chances.

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4 Comments

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  • Hi Josh,
    little confused yesterday in your write up you said that if the selection does not have 1 point against it then it will not be recorded as a bet,todays bet Tornado in milan
    does not have a point stake against it but you imply that it is a bet,can you please clarify.
    Would also like to thank you for your hard work and time running this site.
    Cheers
    Colin

    Colin 17/02/15 1:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Colin, good spot and apols for confusion.. yes this is a 1 point bet and will be recorded as such. i have amended the above.
      Cheers
      Josh

      Josh Wright 17/02/15 1:28 PM Reply


  • Hi..not backed the selection yet, thought I’d wait hoping a better price would be available on the exchanges. Now it’s showing 11/1 on there I’m worried about the drift. My dad used to say ‘the horse never knows what price it is son ‘….the mental side of racing eh

    Michael Manning 17/02/15 2:31 PM Reply


    • Indeed..i have read plenty of books etc with pros, many value hunters etc who will pile more on if their horse drifts. In poor quality handicaps maybe the money is more significant but i have no concerns that the horse wont be trying, it is a decent prize to win. Maybe he is drifting simply because of the money for the others. We shall see, he may not be good enough but plenty in his favour and worth a chance at those odds! in this situation, i always ask myself how annoyed i would be if he won and i wasnt on because of ‘the drift’…i would be fuming and am happier to lose my money than miss a winner

      Josh Wright 17/02/15 2:42 PM Reply


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