Re-cap…a decent run from Tuesday’s selection, if only they could all win like that 🙂 The result never looked in much doubt in my opinion and it was nice to collect on a well backed winner 13/2 into 4/1. It is nice when you read a race pretty much spot on (although i did think he may lead all the way!). Urban Code also proved he stayed and I know one reader had a double bet on them both which would have been a nice return. He may have benefited from the non runner and the early fall of the well backed faller but he battled well.
Anyway…not too much tomorrow but I have found one who looks an ok bet…
Dare to Endeavour 12/1 (bet365,William Hill,Ladbrokes) – 1/2 a point win
I am being slightly cautious here for two reasons. Firstly I didnt expect him to be this big which makes me a bit wary that I may have got this wrong and secondly, linked to the price i suppose, is that there is a slight doubt over his well-being. I cant work out why they ran him over hurdles last time but he was never going to do anything given he is an out and out chaser. Maybe they wanted to change it a bit after two poor chase runs. He is a right handed horse and having won well in two novice chases when going that way round (a blip LH in between) he was pitched into two very hot and competitivechases. Now, on paper, I would like to think he simply was nowhere near that level and when it was clear he couldnt go the pace he was eased up. I think this is much more his level and this is a fairly moderate bunch with plenty to prove. If he runs anywhere near the level of his novice chases I think he must go well. The price would suggest something is up but, for 1/2 a point, I am happy to overlook his last 3 runs. Connections are in form and have a decent record here so hopefully we get a decent run for our money.
Silver Rouque always runs well after a break and has a touch of class however this extra 1/2 furlong has always stretched him in his career to date. The only other one that interested me is the fav who ran well here last time on his chasing debut. He will come on for that but he will need to improve as this is a step up in class. The rest have too many questions to answer that I dont have time to go into. A combination of form and unsuitability to race conditions means I have crossed the rest off my list. This is a weak race for the grade and plenty have questions so I suppose I couldnt rule any out but 12/1 feels too big for the selection.
p.s I will update results for all blog activity next week.
p.p.s There will be nothing on the blog until Monday. As you will see I have written a preview of the Grand National Trial.
Chelmsford…there looks to be a front running trend developing at the course. From a pace angle the likes of Tight Lipped, Bognor, Satchville, Flasman look interesting. They are all moderate races but it is an angle to keep an eye on moving forward. The same can be said for Meydan on the dirt track. Find those front runners who can bag the rail, and who have class/stamina to stay there and you will do ok! As yest I havent had time to look at Thursday’s card but you dont need to be on top of the form as much if finding decent front runners.