Pace Wins The Race: Selection 12/02/15

Re-cap…a decent run from Tuesday’s selection, if only they could all win like that 🙂 The result never looked in much doubt in my opinion and it was nice to collect on a well backed winner 13/2 into 4/1. It is nice when you read a race pretty much spot on (although i did think he may lead all the way!). Urban Code also proved he stayed and I know one reader had a double bet on them both which would have been a nice return. He may have benefited from the non runner and the early fall of the well backed faller but he battled well.

Anyway…not too much tomorrow but I have found one who looks an ok bet…

3.40 Leicester 

Dare to Endeavour 12/1 (bet365,William Hill,Ladbrokes) –  1/2 a point win

I am being slightly cautious here for two reasons. Firstly I didnt expect him to be this big which makes me a bit wary that I may have got this wrong and secondly, linked to the price i suppose, is that there is a slight doubt over his well-being. I cant work out why they ran him over hurdles last time but he was never going to do anything given he is an out and out chaser. Maybe they wanted to change it a bit after two poor chase runs. He is a right handed horse and having won well in two novice chases when going that way round (a blip LH in between) he was pitched into two very hot and competitivechases. Now, on paper, I would like to think he simply was nowhere near that level and when it was clear he couldnt go the pace he was eased up. I think this is much more his level and this is a fairly moderate bunch with plenty to prove. If he runs anywhere near the level of his novice chases I think he must go well. The price would suggest something is up but, for 1/2 a point, I am happy to overlook his last 3 runs. Connections are in form and have a decent record here so hopefully we get a decent run for our money.

Silver Rouque always runs well after a break and has a touch of class however this extra 1/2 furlong has always stretched him in his career to date. The only other one that interested me is the fav who ran well here last time on his chasing debut. He will come on for that but he will need to improve as this is a step up in class. The rest have too many questions to answer that I dont have time to go into. A combination of form and unsuitability to race conditions means I have crossed the rest off my list. This is a weak race for the grade and plenty have questions so I suppose I couldnt rule any out but 12/1 feels too big for the selection.

Good Luck.

p.s I will update results for all blog activity next week.

p.p.s There will be nothing on the blog until Monday. As you will see I have written a preview of the Grand National Trial.

 

p.p.p.s

Chelmsford…there looks to be a front running trend developing at the course. From a pace angle the likes of Tight Lipped, Bognor, Satchville, Flasman look interesting. They are all moderate races but it is an angle to keep an eye on moving forward. The same can be said for Meydan on the dirt track. Find those front runners who can bag the rail, and who have class/stamina to stay there and you will do ok! As yest I havent had time to look at Thursday’s card but you dont need to be on top of the form as much if finding decent front runners.

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4 Comments

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  • This is what Eric Winner makes of the “6.40: SUMMARY: It’s not a great race but I’m thinking Steel City Boy 20/1 will try to lead all the way from stall one and could be hard to catch so I wouldn’t put anyone off of backing it each-way at the price. Top rated SATCHVILLE FLYER 5/2 could really do with a longer trip but does look a worthy favourite, so if the former goes off at a decent pace it could play into the stamina of the selection and it can come home the stronger. “

    Andy Silvers 12/02/15 6:12 AM Reply


  • Over to Meydan and i am looking to have a few bets on the turf but looking at how the dirt track is riding my sole bet so far is in the:

    2:45 – Aslan – A real solid dirt pedigree, the selection was a good winner here 11 days ago of C&D maiden. He took up the running that day, from the gate and none of his rivals could catch him. It looks like he could get an uncontested lead again in this race and will be hard to pass if he does! I am big fan of Ron Wood’s spotlights in the RP on the artificial surfaces and he has gone for Cry Joy who has to be respected but Aslan for me 9/2 @ William Hill 🙂

    Turf Talk 12/02/15 9:26 AM Reply


  • Meydan

    3;20 – If Pilote gets a better ride today he has the ability to win off this mark but Th’ar looks well handicapped on his tapeta win here last year now 1lb lower. 8/1 with Coral looks fair value too.

    5:05 – Godolphin have two in the race and Songcraft has been backed in from 7/1 to 7/2 overnight with WH… Four from four after a break best fresh but given his price now the value is with the other one Excellent Result shade disappointing last time but tends to need his first run back from a break I have the pair of them at around 5/1 so 13/2 with BV looks good cant see him not being in the first three.

    6:15 – Tough final race but an each way punt on Nolohay looks ok at 12/1 @ 365 & BV – Ran well last week after a break, had some good form in France last yea and will be suited by the extra furlong of today’s race. Class horse of the race Vancouverite would take this race if he puts his best foot forward and could be worth a saver at around 5/1

    GL with all your bets

    Turf Talk 12/02/15 9:43 AM Reply


  • Just like to say thanks for tipping us off about Horseracebase. I have been subscribed for about a week and have been messing around with the V4 System Builder from the off with the excellent help of the people on the UKbetting forum,which Chris from HRB endorses. The first horses flagged up in my Handicap Chase system and Hunter Chase system were Lie Forrit 8/1 winner and Pearlysteps 4/1 winner. It makes such a difference to be able to dig deeper into Horses form than just the simple stuff in the newspapers and on bookies websites.
    Having discovered what I now know about Southwell AW track it seems that it heavily favours front runners with high knee action and I imagine this kind of data would fit right in with your ‘Pace wins the Race’ philosophy.

    Anyway,thanks a lot and good luck

    John

    john 14/02/15 10:09 PM Reply


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