Tuesday 10/02/15: A ‘profile’ fancy

UPDATE: Well the market spoke although in truth i would have taken 14/1 last night. Clearly he wasnt good enough and not in same class as the leader who was open to improvement and duly obliged . Of course profile horses dont win every time they run in ‘their conditions’ but they are usually very profitable to follow over a few runs and I will watch for interest next time he appears at Southwell, hopefully against more exposed types. The winner looked to win with any amount in hand and I dont think I would want to oppose next time out at the track.

 

 

 

Well it remains quiet on the Pace front so I thought I would just highlight a ‘profile’ bet I am having on Tuesday.

3.05 Southwell

Kingscombe 12/1 Coral  9/1 Bet365 1 point win

Unfortunately Coral would only let me have £2.10 on the nose. A useless useless bookmaker. As such I had to put the rest on with Bet365 at 9/1, which i still think is too big.

He is a profile horse and he will win many more times at this track and he will win me money long term. In a way I approach profile horses much like mini systems. While I have undertaken some analysis of the others I couldnt ignore his price. It should be clear to anyone with a horseracebase account why i had to back him.

He is 6/8 at Southwell, including 1/2 over the distance and 1/1 over course and distance. Robert Havlin is 4/7 on him. He is 3/5 in C5 and has won at a higher class. He is 3/7 returning 8-15 days. All in all a rather solid profile and a clear preference for this track. All of his career wins have been here and he has only managed 1 place from his 8 runs at the other all-weather venues.

So, why so big. Well I suspect many are put off by his handicap mark. His last win was here of a mark of 70 and he hasnt managed to win above that. However he hasnt ran in his favoured conditions from such a mark and at the prices I am happy to take a chance.  He is also up against a few unexposed types but I couldnt really make a case for any of the others.

Samtu is 0/15 and places a lot. It looks like this step up in trip will be right up his street and if his stamina lasts his consistency will see him go close. But at 5/2 I am happy to take this serial loser on. Tomorrow could be the day but I wont be annoyed that I havent backed him. Lexington Bay has yet to win beyond 1m6f, from 12 tries. He has placed a couple of times and there doesnt appear to be loads of pace here so maybe he will go closer tomorrow. layline is 4/43 on the AW and is 0/8 at the track. He has placed 4 times but I am happy to take on such an animal who finds winning hard. Katie Gale has to be feared because of connections. She is unexposed and will likely build on her last run. She will have to mind and is 0/5 in class 5. A case could be made but not one I would back until seeing a bit more at this level. Rockofages is interesting but is another who is yet to win above class 6, and he has had 5 attempts to do so. He is 1/4 over CD and w/p 3 times in total so he shouldnt be totally dismissed. Marzovian is 4/42 and has yet to win beyond 7f. At 66/1 I dont think he will be winning.

So, a fairly weak race and all of these have something to prove. All in all however the profile horse has a great chance on paper in conditions he relishes. Yes something could be better than him but at 12/1 or 9/1 I was happy to take a chance. He always tries here and we should get a good run for our money.

 

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11 Comments

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  • With you on the Kingscombe :)……Its poor racing day overall….. although i have looked at Clonmel 3:10 – A very very poor race but one that I like at price is Trainspotting – A couple of minor angles David Mullins is well worth his 7lb claim – watch out for him at the major spring festivals – and the first time cheekpieces and at 14/1 he looks worth a modest play. Will know at around 3:20 how good or bad a choice it was.

    Turf Talk 09/02/15 7:30 PM Reply


  • I think the other key to this horse is the field size as 5 of his wins have come in fields of 7 runners or less – in fact if we look at his runs at Southwell in Class 4 and below when racing in fields of 7 runners or less his record reads: 11111. I do feel that his mark is a slight concern but his price more than makes up for this.

    David 10/02/15 7:46 AM Reply


    • Hi David, yes quite right. That figured in my analysis/thinking but I appear to have omitted it above. I do feel the price allows for any doubts. We shall see come 3.10

      Josh Wright 10/02/15 9:02 AM Reply


  • How that Samtu can be favourite? Trainer 5/55 at distance on AW last 5 years – is actually profitable 12/63 9/10f, suggests Lay to me.

    How Kingscombe can have secured the most course wins of these while producing such lowly RP speed figs is also a quandary (though I’ve thought there’s a discrepancy in their standard times)?

    Meanwhile I think Katie Gale should go in everyone’s notebook as a prospective future hurdler (Shirocco(Ger)/Unfuwain(USA)) whatever happens today but could also be given another chance after last time, trip too short, too fresh & keen for new yard and blinkers back off as they were when she won latest. Most lightly raced with scope especially at trip.

    Again, Rock Of Ages’ figs are better over shorter, not looked elsewhere yet but Samtu Lay of Day so far!

    Andy Silvers 10/02/15 8:03 AM Reply


    • Yes no idea about their figures. He comes low down on quite a few ratings, including HRB own (not sure what they use to compile them though). Ratings are a funny thing, none of the others have won or performed that well over 2m, in class5, at this course. So does that mean all their figures are based on performances in conditions different from today. Anyway, even if I take into consideration those figures I think the price is worth the chance.

      Samtu – agree, there isnt much to make me want to back him at such odds.

      Josh Wright 10/02/15 9:07 AM Reply


      • OMG! 1 hour & 40 minutes l8r – while I been checking other cards – there has been enough movement in the market to have backed & layed both Samtu & Katie Gale for a profit whatever!

        I’ve just started laying what I consider weak favourites, the above have totally flip-flopped & I missed the boat on that one.

        Got side-tracked by First Dream 2.30, his sire 87% chance of losing but still show a profit? If Rennie Mackingtosh’s trainer had been in better form would have suggested a Lay there.

        PS: Suppose all the readers of Daily Star (only get for racing page, honest!) have lumped on his tipped Yankee for Michael Appleby lol

        Andy Silvers 10/02/15 9:50 AM Reply


  • Here’s a good little trick, I’ve just logged out of the Racing Post website so you don’t have to be a member to see – at the top of each course (top right) you’ll see a button for PRINT OUTS, click that, scroll down to Postdata one, choose race & for this one you’ll get:

    TRAINER
    FORM
    GOING
    SD
    DIST
    16.0f COURSE DRAW ABILITY RECENT
    FORM 3:05 Topspeed Ratings
    LATEST BEST ADJUSTED
    ✘ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ – ✓✓ ✘ Kingscombe 20 39-Sep 26 Wolv 13.8sd
    ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ – ✓✓ ✓✓ Lexington Bay 49 49-Jan 29 Sthl 11.0sd 49
    ✘ ✓ ✓ ✓ – ✓✓ ✓✓ Layline 62 73-Jan 04 Sthl 12.0ss 73
    ✓ ✓ ? ✓ – ✓✓ ✓✓ Samtu 67 67-Jan 27 Sthl 14.0sd 67
    ✓✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ – ✓✓ ✘ Katie Gale – 54-Jun 19 Sthl 16.0sd
    ✘ ✓ ✓ ✓✓ – ✓✓ ✓✓ Rock Of Ages 49 72-Dec 18 Sthl 14.0sd 72
    ✓ ✓ ? ✓✓ – ✘ ✘ Mazovian – 45-Dec 18 Sthl 14.0sd
    POSTDATA Lexington Bay TOPSPEED Layline

    I’ll come back with some good future examples of using this but even above shows Katie Gale as yet only one whose best is at today’s CD & having only had 9 runs at some point better to come imho

    Andy Silvers 10/02/15 10:08 AM Reply


    • The only catch here – is that it doesn’t let you open two pdf’s at once – so copy n paste what you want & then close before it will let you open a pdf for another course – can come in handy for big field h’caps imho

      Andy Silvers 10/02/15 6:14 PM Reply


  • Very interesting Andy… you learn something everyday 🙂

    Turf Talk 10/02/15 10:28 AM Reply


  • Just wanted to re-iterate-Corals-What is the point of them??
    U win a few bets and the restrict your stakes…
    I’ve never-as yet-had any such problems with 365,PP,Lads or hills-But Corals make me sick-they just insult punters and I pray they go bust the bastards!!

    Mick 10/02/15 12:11 PM Reply


    • yes i can only echo that! I looked at my account and over a 4/5 month period i only had 17 bets with them and balance was +148.00. That was enough for restrictions to come in. Really is ridiculous.

      Josh Wright 10/02/15 1:12 PM Reply


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