Pace Wins The Race: Update

Just a quick note to say that I am still looking daily for ‘Pace’ selections but nothing of quality is standing out at all at the moment. So, until something comes up I am comfortable betting on I will keep my money in my wallet. As I have said previously, if there is no post by 10pm in the evening it means there will be no ‘Pace’ selection for the following day. Given how quiet Monday-Fridays can be it may be the case that I expand into the weekend, we shall see.

Meydan…

Having watched a few races there appears to be an incredible pace bias on the Dirt track. Anything that can get a lead, or race very handily, that has the form to stay there is rarely caught. The exception is when there may be a pace burn up and it sets up for finishers. Anyway, I will watch with interest to see how this develops. Arguably those horses who get an easy time on the lead and win should be downgraded and any that come from off the pace, especially if it’s a slow pace, should be upgraded. It just looks bloody hard work to come from the back on that course. Whether the track will change as time goes on we shall see. There is no place to readily access Meydan pace maps (that i know of) and it is just a case of watching and noting down/going through Racing Post manually.

With that in mind i will be keeping a close eye on the 3.55 Meydan. AdIdem and Local Time should both be up there from the start. They finished 1-2 last time and I doubt they will be much of a price. A case could be made for the from being reversed but either way it will be interesting to watch. I don’t think their odds will be great but maybe a reverse forecast (for fun) will work out well!

The 5.40 looks tricky, even for someone not accustomed to studying the Meydan form! Surfer could well burn them off turning int but has stamina to prove. I think he will be in there pitching. Frankyfourfingers was 2nd to Surfer lto but could well appreciate this distance more. They both look like they will be in the box seat turning in, which I think is the place to be. African Story is high class and ran in this last year i think. That was on the old surface and he usually comes from off the pace. It will be interesting to see how he runs.

Anyway, I may have some fun bets. In truth I dont know the form well enough but will be watching how the pace works out.

 

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6 Comments

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  • Totally concur with you analysis on Meydan’s dirt’s surface. African Story and Prince Bishop are the class acts on ratings but there ratings are based on the old tapeta surface . If African Story takes to the dirt he will be very hard to beat even though this is his seasonal reappearance, The value rests with Surfer and Frankyfourfingers who were first and second in the first round of the Maktoum challenge. This is what i rode in my notebook about Surfer

    “Surfer maybe a six year old now but he has really taken to the dirt and is 2-2 on the new surface. He was an easy winner of the Group 2 Al Maktoum Challenge to follow on from his recent listed success. He is prominent racer which you need on the dirt and he is also a bit of grinder which is essential attribute for any horse when racing on this surface. He should continue to improve on the surface and could well end up a Group 1 performer on dirt”

    I like Surfer a lot he is tough and that what you need o the dirt and the 5/1 looks fair value but he does step up two furlongs in trip today so stamina has to be proved that said he did stay this far on the tapeta. Frankyfourfingers looked much much improved on his dirt debut, he should come on for that run and although he got within 2 1/4 lengths of Surfer the winner won more easily than the final margin suggests. The bookies who have priced up the race have him at 10/1 which also looks value and he is worth a small saver at that sort of price.

    Turf Talk 04/02/15 6:31 PM Reply


    • Yep agree about surfer and frankyfourfingers, they look decent odds. I think the Dirt could make a mockery of some ratings…all about how he runs. If there is not a scorching pace and he is mid div/near the back it will be some task to sweep by and win. If he does do so, on his reappearance, then he is probably not worth opposing moving forward. Of course as jockeys become aware of the bias (they must all be??) they will surely ride mounts further forward than they would have done on a different surface. We shall see, certainly makes analysis a bit easier if you can find the pace angles. Surfer…he has placed a couple of times over 10f in G1, but yes on different surface…if he is able to build up a substantial lead, even if he starts to paddle the line may come soon enough. We shall see. GL

      Josh Wright 04/02/15 7:01 PM Reply


  • I think the dirt at Meydan looks ideal for you your pace analysis….. 🙂

    I am glad i went for a saver on Frankyfourfingers,,, given a great ride from Barzalona who isn’t one of my favourite jockeys, i have to say, he was also one best backed horses on the card… Hope you had a bit of that 10/1

    Turf Talk 05/02/15 5:51 PM Reply


    • haha..that was nice! I missed the 10s, got 8s last night, had 1/2 point on winner and Surfer. Surfer ran well given he had to be ridden hard to get a prominent position…was against better horses with better gate speed i think..but he should be nice price when he drops back in trip, he isnt done with. Lovely ride by Barzalona… in fairness, given brought up in France and now rides there again he will know how to judge a ride from the front and pace..clearly good clock in his head. I dont let pro jocks put me off when that kind of price. Yes for a bit of fun a decent result. Prob mark down performance (will be over bet next time) as looked like he went the pace he wanted, and kicked when he wanted. horses behind never had a chance. Problem is you have to do the pace maps manually but could well be worth it moving forward.

      Josh Wright 05/02/15 5:56 PM Reply


      • Just looked at 6.10…yes on turf but a lot of turns on that track..Pace angle appears to be those drawn 1 and 2, Captain Lars and Our Channel..will see how they go, 5vas for fun, one of them could see them off. Have simply tried to find front runners, cant say have looked at the form 🙂

        Josh Wright 05/02/15 6:01 PM Reply


        • nope, will stick to the dirt!

          Josh Wright 05/02/15 6:18 PM Reply


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