Some Bets/ramblings For Monday

UPDATE Well Evan Williams didnt have a very good day, and therefore neither did I. I back the ‘long distance jockey’ selections systematically so no damage there long term. I threw a £5va at each of the others who were rather poor and never in their races.

Cruising Bye ran as Cruising Bye does, placing again but not good enough on the day. As eluded to in my morning update below Brunettes only was backed in the morning and ran well, which if she were in the mood she was entitled to do. She clearly got out of the right side of bed.  But, if you bet in C5 races you get what you deserve, and i ‘loaned’ 0.5 points to the bookies!

 

Well an unsuccessful Saturday but not too much damage done. Some time this week, likely tomorrow, I will be writing a post on Cheltenham and what you can expect on the blog. I also have an ‘over the shoulder’ video of me using Horse Race Base to produce. This is likely to be early next week at the latest.

Monday’s racing is very uninspiring from my punting perspective. There is certainly nothing from a Pace perspective (a front runner who could stay there) over jumps that I could see. All-Weather is a no go zone for me at the moment!

However, given I have so many systems/profiles etc always chugging along in the background I may as well use a ‘blank’ day as an opportunity to share a few horses/ideas to keep an eye on.

I am hoping Evan Williams has a good day at Ludlow.

Those of you who read my ’90 Day Trainer’ post will know that I am currently researching/tracking a few trainers who have a decent record when running their handicappers for the 1st and/or 2nd time in the last 90 days. It is another ‘way in’ of identifying trainers who are very good at targeting and placing their horses. Evan Williams, under certain conditions, has a 26% strike rate when one of his handicappers is having their 2nd run inside 90 days (ie only 1 previous run) They are clearly fresh, having not been over raced in recent weeks, and placed fairly well. (there are a couple of other rules)

There are two ‘qualifiers’ tomorrow…

2.15 Ludlow  – Forgivienne

3.50 Ludlow – Sublime Talent

We shall see how they do. I must stress I haven’t looked at these races form a form perspective.

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Paul Maloney is one of my ‘long distance jockeys’. He had a poor 2014 with this kind of ride, only 2 from 20, and that actually means that 2 of the last 5 years have been losing years. (only 6 points loss across both years) He is 0/3 in 2015. So slight caution is advised (James Reveley is still the star of the 3m+ show) but, nothing has changed in his circumstances. He still rides for the same people and I expect the profits to return soon.

He has one such qualifier tomorrow…

2.50 Ludlow: Whiskey Yankee

This horse is trained by that man Williams and also happens to be having his 2nd run inside 90 days. However, so far Williams record above C4 with this approach could be better. Anyway, he qualifies based on the Moloney angle. You may wish to use this information when looking at the race. For what it is worth this is a tricky race to unpick. I wouldnt be betting in it were it not for the above angle. The horse is having his second chase start and given connections has to be respected.

 

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In the 4.00 Plumpton there is a rather poor looking C5 handicap chase over 3m2f. Given the distance it is a race that automatically caught my eye. It really is a poor affair. I dont think it is wise to bet in races below C3/4 very often, in either code. They are poor animals who are unpredictable, and who don’t win very often. However every race must have a winner. I havent decided whether to part with my hard earned in this yet however I couldnt look outside of the top two in the market. Volio Vicente has yet to win back to back races and is best at Fontwell. He also appears to need the extra 1/2 furlong in which to grind his opponents into the ground. However at least he knows how to win and is in form. That counts for a lot in this field. His form ties in with Cruising Bye and I think I fancy that one to over-turn the form round here. I think the more galloping, longer straight, nature of this track will help him. He has been very consistent without getting his head in front and his trainer is in decent form. You can never discount anything in a C5 chase but the others really do have too much to prove in my opinion. 9/4 may just be good value for the Bowen charge and if I do bet it will be on him. It is not an official ‘tip’ however. Have a look at the race and see what you think. You will probably come to the conclusion that you are best keeping your money in your pocket!

 UPDATE : It is 10.14, Brunettes Only (who i have backed from pace angle before) has been well backed into favoritism. Given that she has yet to win when this short I am not sure if it is ‘in the know’ money. She is very in and out. She has won over CD before and is well handicapped. If she is in the mood then she will run well here. I was put off by her lack of consistency and her very poor run lto when fancied at 3/1. I think it makes Cruising Bye more of a bet at 11/4. Only 1/2 a point on as it is a shocker of a race!  

 

And that’s it. None of these will count in my ‘official results’ for the blog and don’t count as ‘Big Race Previews’.  The 4.oo Plumpton isn’t exactly a ‘Big Race’! 🙂 Evan Williams has a couple of others at Ludlow, a track he generally does well at. Knowing my luck they will probably go in. I am not backing the ’90 day’ system selections as yet and am just tracking them. I may throw some 1/4 points (£5 for me) at them for interest but it will just be fascinating to see how that angle develops. The stats suggest they are runners to keep onside.

As ever, good luck whatever you fancy in what is a poor days racing.

Josh

 

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Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

4 Comments

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  • I’m hoping Sublime talent can at least place today 1 pt e/w at 9’s looks like a cracking bet

    Jimbo 2 years ago Reply


  • Hope you had a good weekend… interesting looking at Even Williams record at Ludlow since 2004. Like you. I love working with HorseRaceBase

    Even Williams – This is his record at Ludlow since 2004 with handicappers in January and February

    Overall Record – 13 -17 – 18.06% +10.76

    Looking a bit deeper:

    Handicap Hurdlers – 6 -26 – 23% +10
    Handicap Chasers – 7-46 – 15% -6.87

    Gives plenty of confidence that the trainer usually has his horses in good form at this time of year and a his handicap hurdlers have a good strike rate.

    Not a meeting I was having a bet in but the 2:50 looks a race that might tempt me but funnily enough the Even Williams horse isn’t on my shortlist. I may well regret it mow. haha

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


  • I am throwing a couple of units at Forgivienne in the 2:15 – Ludlow

    Williams has also got one in the 3:20 the amateur riders race – Devil’s Dyke – not a great race and am not a fan of these type of races – appalling form figures really but I the jockeu had winner here for the stable last week so not without a chance at 10s

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


  • Onto the 2:50 – A race with a few of the usual suspects but plenty of value if you can find the winner.

    Multiple point winner Theatre Queen is the most interesting…. those who follow the that sphere think the mare is well handicapped and 8/1 represents value in the first time hood. The problem is she refused to race last time and has played up at the start before. Probably one to back at a point or two shorter when she has jumped off with the rest. Hard to Swallow looks on a fair mark but his jumping has to have improved since his last race if the errors have been ironed out at home again 8/1 is a fair price.

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


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