Big Race Preview + profitable trainer angle

UPDATE

Well we got a decent run for our money and that was about it. The Job Is Right would have held on for a gallant second had he not unseated at the last. Sadler’sFlaure ran well for a long way and as they entered the gloom he had a few lengths in hand. As they left the gloom he was going backwards. As it happened not much had a chance as they bumped into what must be a future multiple G1 winner. Yes the form may not stack up to much but for a 6yo to carry that much weight, in that ground, and win like that was still impressive. The stats say it takes a good animal to win from top weight and I would have never taken 9/2 in such a race. With hindsight that was a big price but that is racing!  I will have a look at Saturday’s racing and will no doubt have some fancies. Hopefully those of you who backed these two are loyal followers of my ‘Big Race Previews’ as you have quite a few points to play with 🙂

Big Race Preview

3.15 Gowran Park: Thyestes Handicap Chase

Sadler’sFlaure 1 point win 11/1 (betfred)

The Job is Right 1 point win 12/1 (ladbrookes)

I appear to be running out of time today but I have had a look at this race, using trends to narrow down the field. At the prices and based on recent form I have gone for these two. They both race prominently and for different reasons have good chances in this. Sadler’sFlaure ran well last time and finished infront of Foxrock who has since franked the form. This is only his 3rd run outside of France, should cope with Heavy, and races prominently which I like. He is yet to prove that he stays, but hasn’t tried this trip, and at 11/1 was worth a bet. The Job Is Right also races prominently and ran a cracker in the Paddy Power Chase. He won a Beginners Chase last time which will have boosted the confidence and he is only 3lbs higher than for his close Paddy Power 4th. A repeat of that run must see him in the mix here and 12s was a nice price. There are of course plenty of dangers and cases could be made for many.

The trends I used were as follows (from last 18 runnings):-

  • 11/17 Top 9 lto. The other 6 were PU,UR,BD (1 hadnt run before)
  • Only 1/18 priced over 20/1
  • 10/18 Top 5 in the market
  • 16/18 Aged 7-10
  • 16/18 ran 16-60 days ago
  • 2/18 were rated higher than 135. That is from 51 runners. So 2/51 runners.
  • 10/18 were rated 124-135

My shortlist consisted of the selections, Gallant Oscar,Goonyella and Swordfish. Groody Hill was 10th last time but otherwise qualifies and could be given a sniff. Gallant Oscar has a chance but is half the price of the selections. Goonyella has had a few tries at this kind of grade without success and I am happy to take him on. He is an out and out galloper though and you will need to stay in these conditions. Swordfish is interesting at a decent price but I prefer the stronger form of the selections. He is also 0/19 on undulating tracks and may just prefer a flatter surface. A big run wouldnt be a total shock though given his trends fit and low weight.

All in all a very competitive race. I wouldn’t say I was as confident as I was say with Hawkes Point or Scotswell in recent weeks, mainly as I don’t follow Irish form as closely as UK. I probably should have stuck with ½ points or EW, but where is the fun in that 🙂

Good Luck with whatever you fancy.

 

*****

90 Day Trainers – Another profitable approach.

I have to hold my hands up here.

I have ‘stolen’ an idea.

Firstly one of you, my email list subscribers/blog readers, got in touch – a nice chap called Bob- asking me to look into something for him. He remembered Matt Bisogno of www.geegeez.co.uk sending out something about trainer Graeme McPherson. Graeme did something very well.  He had a decent record when his handicappers were having only their first or second run in the last 90 days. (ie they had ran 0 or 1 time only in the last 90 days).

Now, why is this important? Well clearly Graeme is very good at getting horses fit at home, ensuring they have not been ‘over raced’ in the preceding few weeks and subsequently finding the right races for them.  This was potentially another method for identifying when horses were going to run well.

You know by now that I do like a good trainer angle. With this idea now in my head I set about researching some more trainers. (Matt is aware that I have ‘stolen’ his idea 🙂 ) As I found out looking at trainer’s handicappers that had 0 and/or 1 run only in the last 90 days appeared to be a decent approach.

So far, looking at my list, I have found 14 trainers that do this quite well. Since 2010 there have been 1125 selections, 278 winners, 474 places for a BFSP profit of 1711.73 points. That’s a 25.5% win strike rate and an average of 342 points profit a year. As you will see, some trainers have quite a low strike rate, others not so bad, and some bang in decent priced winners quite regularly. For some there are not many selections a year which means they are perfect to add to a portfolio.

I am going to go back through them and make sure I haven’t back-fitted etc (which you can do subconsciously!)  but thought i would share some now. Unsurprisingly it’s not just a case of finding a trainer with a decent record with handicappers having only their 1st or 2nd run in the last 90 days. Some trainers are better with certain types of horses than others and you need to check that results are not skewed by one or two big priced winners.  With any rule you need a logical reason for including it. If there is no logical reason you are simply back fitting to meet your own ends etc. And of course their record with this type of horse (0/1 runs 90 days) has to be better than when the horse has had more than that number of runs.

Anyway, with that said I am happy to share a few of these. Like I did with the trainer/jockey/track combos I will spread them out over a few posts. . I haven’t bet any of these live as yet and will be tracking their progress to see how they do.

1.Graeme McPherson

  • Horse Run (last 90 days) Between 0 and 1
  • Handicap
  • Class 2,3,4
  • Horse running same class as previous run or up1 or up2 classes.
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 107 18 16.82 200 35 32.71 186.92 253.75 237.15 58.5 1.76
2015 1 0 0 -1 0 0 -100 -1 -100 -1 0
2014 30 6 20 56.5 9 30 188.33 71.87 239.58 4.02 2.05
2013 20 5 25 73 8 40 365 101.17 505.83 25.79 3.14
2012 18 0 0 -18 2 11.11 -100 -18 -100 -1.01 0
2011 23 4 17.39 42.5 11 47.83 184.78 46.43 201.85 19.15 1.4
2010 15 3 20 47 5 33.33 313.33 53.28 355.23 11.55 2.36

2012 was clearly a difficult year but otherwise an ok set of results. He does have many decent priced winners and is actually unprofitable to follow with horses priced under 14/1. However I cant think of a logical reason to exclude those runners. He isnlt good at class5/6 (just poor animals i imagine) nor when dropping horses in class. He does have the odd winner but the general stats were not good.

2. Luca Cumani

  • Horse Run (last 90 days) 0 ONLY
  • Handicap
  • Class 4, 5 only
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 59 22 37.29 51.67 34 57.63 87.58 61.32 103.92 15.91 1.92
2014 9 2 22.22 -2.12 5 55.56 -23.56 -2.2 -24.47 0.85 0.94
2013 10 5 50 9.25 8 80 92.5 9.92 99.25 4.37 2.21
2012 9 4 44.44 19.5 4 44.44 216.67 25.55 283.91 1.35 3.08
2011 13 3 23.08 7.13 6 46.15 54.85 7.43 57.17 6.97 1.48
2010 18 8 44.44 17.91 11 61.11 99.5 20.61 114.49 2.38 2.14

Luca has a superb record at placing his horses in the lower grades (only a couple of runners in C6) when they havent had a run in the previous 90 days. He performs well above market expectations and generally makes steady profits every year. Even if you dont follow the selections systematically it will help with form analysis of a race knowing he has a 37% win strike rate with such runners. He is actually 0/9 with horses priced over 10/1 so you may just want to focus on the fancied runners. I suspect a few bigger priced horses in the morning get backed throughout the day into the 10/1 or under price range.

 

3. Miss Suzy Smith

  • Horse Run (last 90 days) between 0 and 1
  • Handicap Chase and Hurdle only
  • 16/1 or under
Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 66 18 27.27 77.5 26 39.39 117.42 101.83 154.29 10.01 1.75
2014 16 5 31.25 19.5 6 37.5 121.88 24.23 151.41 3.71 2.17
2013 19 6 31.58 38 8 42.11 200 44.7 235.28 5.82 2.17
2012 10 1 10 -2.5 4 40 -25 -0.96 -9.63 1.02 0.71
2011 16 4 25 13 6 37.5 81.25 23.67 147.95 -1.16 1.21
2010 5 2 40 9.5 2 40 190 10.2 203.91 0.62 3.92

 

A nice mini angle in which to target the Suzy Smith (not to be confused with Sue Smith) handicappers. They have to be generally well fancied. In fact she is 0/20 with horses priced over 16/1 although 5 have placed and I will be keeping an eye on this. She has been quite consistent over 5 years and I will always allow a trainer one unprofitable year out of 5, especially when it isnt totally disastrous.

 

That is it for today. Hopefully you found that useful/interesting. I will share the others in due course and I look forward to tracking them to see how they do. On the face of it this looks like a very profitable ‘way in’ when following certain trainer’s handicappers. I have to thank Bob who emailed in, and Matt for the original idea. As a thanks to him it would be wrong for me not to plug his Geegeez Gold again 🙂 You know I use this everyday and that I think you should be doing the same.

You can get your 10 day free trial below. Matt has created a new page which explains much more clearly what Gold is. So if you checked out the old page, or you are sitting on the fence, do click below to really see what you are missing. I would just sign up for the next 10 days as I am sure you will make more money using ‘Gold’ than you have in the previous 10 🙂

Join Geegeez Gold

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

2 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • Like Your Style – no, not you, Josh! It’s my bet in the Thyestes as it has ideal conditions, returned to form lto and is owned by JP. See 2012 Troytown for best form.

    Chris 2 years ago Reply


    • haha – whoosshh now that is a proper bet, a decent 40/1 poke. In fairness he is a proven G1/A winner and there are not many of those in this. can see why you would take a chance at that price, even if he places that is a nice pay day. He doesnt like winning though, 1/19 chases, yet to win beyond 2m5 but has gone close over 3m- not a horse i would take 10s about, but 40s is a different matter. and as you say, connections always make you sit up. Good Luck!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


Post A Reply