Pace Wins The Race: Selection 08/01/15 +NY National

Re-cap

Hmm… well it is proving a bit of a struggle at the moment, such is the luck of a ‘value’ hunter. No excuses for either selection today. Roys Legacy led as expected but in the end faded quite tamely. Maybe he went too quick or just wasnt quite on his game. He was around 7/1 for the first half of the day and having got 14/1 I thought we had a live one. However during the afternoon he drifted out to 16s. Anyway, if I was looking at that race again tomorrow I would make the same bet at those odds so I am not annoyed. Spowarticus ran well but bumped into a better handicapped horse. I dont think there was anything Morris could do. The fact the horses near the front throughout the race finished at the front shows me that the pace was right. We got 5/1 about a 3/1 shot but no return this time. He keeps getting caught and is clearly one to be weary of moving forward.

That is now 10 losers in a row and it would be nice to have a winner soon!… running total 6/30= +11.5 points

 

UPDATE 

Awful, just Awful. Drifted out to 11/1 and although it looked promising through most of the race in the end he faded right out the back. A very poor run. It was a finish dominated by those with experience but I would never have picked the winner. That is why I tend to leave those races alone and maybe should do moving forward. It has been a poor return to action and hopefully I can end the week on a high.

1.30 Leicester

Gold Ignot 13/2 (BV/PP) 1 point win

In what is another rather mediocre day where nothing exceptional caught the eye I am diving into a Novice Handicap Chase. Not my favourite punting race but I think I have found a live one. These kinds of races are always tricky given the number of horses open to improvement. On this occasion I have gone with a horse with winning chase form, who jumped for fun last time and looks to be improving. He is a prominent racer, may well be sent on, and if he jumps like he did last time he will ask most of these a lot of questions, which they may have no answer to. Of course one of the more unexposed horses, from a more powerful yard, may prove too good but that is a chance I am happy to take at 13/2.

Better is clearly expected of Irish Buccaneer but this is only his second chase start and he made an error strewn debut at Worcester. I am happy to take him on after a break. Salmanazar is in a similar position having his second chase run and could go well, but his inexperience will be tested. Medieval Chapal is making his chase debut and could obviously go well but again i am happy to take on. Perfect Candidate is 0/5 in C3 races, is 1/5 in chases but ran appallingly last time and I would think there is something better in this race than him. The Musical Guy is interesting. If he repeats his run last time he will go well but he is very in and out and is 0/6 at class 3. He also appears to need longer breaks between races and can put in a shoddy round of jumping. CouldHaveHadItAll is having his second chase start and steps up in trip which should suit. he is another who could improve and play a role in the finish.

For me Gold Ignot ran very well last time and his jumping caught the eye. The trainer has a good record here and also has a decent record with handicap chasers in general. He is open to improvement and could jump these into submission. Of course he could be beaten by something better and while it is not the type of race that I would want to bet my last ever tenner in and I am happy to go with him in what is another poor days racing.

I will be having a look at the Yorkshire National at some point, probably tomorrow morning. If I do end up having a bet in the race I will post it up here – minus analysis….

As promised…

North Yorkshire Grand National 

Having had a look at this race it’s a rather tricky affair. I have never seen a race like this with so much pace, on paper at  least. There isnt a horse in the field who likes to be held up and there are lots of front runners -it will be interesting how the race pans out. You could make a case for many of these and given how competitive it is and if i were  pro punter i probably wouldnt be playing. But I am not a pro and I like to have an interest in these types of races. Interestingly 34 horses have tried to carry more than 11-00 to victory in the previous 8 runnings since 2004 and none have been succcessful so far. It will be fascinating to see if that trend gets broken. Anyhow, I have gone for two on my side…

Scotswell 8/1 1 point win

Settledoutofcourt 12/1 1 point win

Scotswell is only 1/13 over fences but has run well at a higher class and has ran well in a couple of 4m races. He shouldnt be found out for stamina. He has one of the best jockeys in the country on his back over 3m+ trips in chases and as long as he doesnt sulk if he doesnt get the lead, he should run a decent race from the right end of the weights. Settledoutofcourt looks a stout stayer having been outpaced over 3m2f a couple of times. He jumps superbly and that alone will see him go well here I think. It could be that he is just a tad slow in general, and something may be quicker than him over this trip but I think he is the most interesting horse in the race. The trainer is back in form and given his consistent chase record I would hope for a bold show. He does like to press the pace but he can sit behind. He should be staying on at the end.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

You can post comments in this post.


  • onwards and upwards

    bill 07/01/15 7:42 PM Reply


  • Gold Ingot looks a good price. I have taken 8/1 some good times and he did jump really well last time. I think this one looks a strong contender to get back on the winning thread.

    I said I would post a couple up for Meydan. I wont be betting on the dirt until I have seen just how the track is riding but there are a three turf races.

    3:55 – Ahtoug – Looks handicapped to win this race for a second year running. Wouldn’t want to take less than 7/2 tho

    6:15 – The best betting race on the card for me, I am going to oppose Short Squeeze on this occasion and at the prices I am going for Safety Check at 8/1 and small saver on Tamaathul at 14/1

    Turf Talk 08/01/15 9:23 AM Reply


  • Good luck to all

    Turf Talk 08/01/15 9:59 AM Reply


  • Nice one Josh-led all the way…thank god it wasn’t 3m7f though eh!!!

    Mick 08/01/15 2:54 PM Reply


    • haha – i couldnt believe what an easy lead he got, and thought he must be going too quick. Yes, just lasted, and probably didnt have to go quicker than ideal in parts of race. Anyway, called it right…should have made him the Pace horse as well! but didnt expect it to be that easy…and didnt get round to looking at race until morning. There we go, glad I continue my half decent 3m+ chase form!

      Josh Wright 08/01/15 2:56 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh with the 8/1 winner today.

    Philip 08/01/15 8:12 PM Reply


Post A Reply