Pace Wins The Race: Selections 07/01/15

Re-Cap

Well Mighty Minnie was rather poor and there are no real excuses. She ran ok, nothing better than that, and flattered to deceive having looked as though she was about to pull away turning for home. Bashford Ben wasnt much good either and it was a losing day for me personally, across the board. That is racing for you. That was my 8th loser in a row for PACE, which isnt great, but my approach means that runs like this will happen from time to time. And of course, this approach to PACE is a test so don’t go betting your mortgage on the selections 🙂

Running Total: 6/28 = +13.5 points

Hopefully I can turn it around tomorrow where I have two bets.

2.20 Lingfield: Roys Legacy 14/1 – 1 point win (14/1 Ladbrookes,no BOG until 9am, 12/1 general

7.10 Kempton: Spowarticus 5/1 – 1 point win (5/1 general, B365, Betfair Sportsbook)

 

UPDATE

Roys Legacy ran as the market suggested he would in the end. Having gone 7s across the board early in the day i thought we were onto a good thing. However he drifted to 16s before the race which said it all i think. He got to the lead, possibly went too hard, but folded tamely. The run would indicate that today wasnt his day. Maybe there is an issue with the stables horses at the moment but I would place the same bet again and he will win again over CD-i just hope I am on when he does!

 

2.20 Ling: Roys Legacy

14/1 is too big for a horse whose handicap form, over course and distance, in c5 or below, reads: 1,3,1,3,3,2,1,1,6,1  : His form when returning within 7 days over 5f Kempton/Lingfield (only AW courses where he has performed well) reads 1,1,3,3,1. Indeed his form over 5f at Lingfield is 5 wins from 11 starts, placed in a further 3. He has won from a mark of 71 on the AW (with a 3lb claim) so a mark of 68 is fine. We should get a run for our money, and you may of course wish to back EW but I will go the foolhardy route.

He has been held up for a few of his recent runs and I find it interesting that, reverting back to his favourite course, over the right trip, the trainer calls up that man Joe Fanning. I would be shocked if he is held up tomorrow. While he may not get an easy lead up front, Fanning is such a good judge of pace that he should be in the right position to strike.

Of course there are dangers but most of the other runners have questions to answer. Triple Dream is a 10yo now and generally isnt the most consistent these days. Conditions are fine but you would think something younger would beat him. Ask The Guru is 0/13 on the AW and 0/11 at Lingfield. No thanks, not until he shows winning form here. Pour La Victoire is trying a new trip and I couldnt take his price given I dont know if this will suit him. He is only 1/14 on the AW, has placed a lot, but all winning form has been over 7f or further. It is interesting that they drop him down to 5 but I am happy to take him on. Johnny Splash has been consistent and should be thereabouts. Even with the jockey claim however he is now 3lb above his highest winning mark. Barbs Princess could be anything given how unexposed she is however she is 0/5 on the AW and all her winning form so far has been over further. She also comes here after a lengthy break. Welease Bwian is very inconsistent but given he won LTO at least we know he is in form. A record of 2/20 at Lingfield and 2/34 in C5 doesnt inspire much. However he is in form and so is his trainer so he should go ok. Mukaynis is unexposed but is another to try a new trip, taking a drop of 2f. I am happy to leave alone. Temple Road is 0/5 over 5f, with all wins at 6f and I am happy to take on.

So, all in all an inconsistent bunch as you would expect and reasons to be hopeful for our selection. Certainly there are enough reasons to suggest that 14/1 and even 12/1 is too big given all of the above. Hopefully Fanning can get to the front and not be passed. The current trainer form is a concern but i cannot turn down this price.

 

7.10 Kempton

We have backed Spwarticus before and he just got caught last time at Wolvs in the dying strides. When we backed him at Kempton two runs ago Adam Kirby went off far too quickly. He is in form and is showing a level of consistent which many of his rivals do not posses. New Rich is the only other horse in any kind of consistent form but he is a hold up type and will have to rely on Luke Morris getting his fractions wrong. Given he should get an uncontested lead, the trainer is now in decent form (although from at the course still a concern) and 5/1 is a shade too big, I thought he was worthy of following again. Hopefully this is his race. PickALittle is the only other with consistent form in all race conditions and has a decent record fresh and under today’s jockey. Given he is 12/1 he could be worth a saver. It is a C6 AW so anything could happen but hopefully Morris can get it right out front and see them all off.

 

Shortlist

There were a couple of others that interested me and I was hoping they would be bigger odds. Bladoun has a great chance in the 3.10 but i couldnt take 9/4. There are a couple of questions, such as the trip, but he isnt taking on much and should go well. There are a few unexposed types in there who could step forward and all in all one to leave alone at the price.

Auldthunder in the 3.30 caught the eye but not at 5/2. It is a hands and heels race and although he arguably has the best jockey on board they are generally a poor bunch. I think there will be a pace burn up in this race and I think he should be able to pick up the pieces. He jumped really well last time, bar trying to take the last fence with him. He didnt fall, just walked through it when well ahead. I think he will run a decent race but as I said the price is prohibitive. There are good 5/2 shots, I dont think this is one, we shall see.

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7 Comments

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  • I am on Spwarticus his figures give him a nice advantage if as you say the jockey can get the fractions right

    I like the angle on Roy’s Legacy and he did catch my eye when I first looked at the race. Like you say stable form is a bit of a worry. Not sure if i am going too play in the race yet?

    Interesting to see Joe Fanning has been booked for the first time blinkered Mubtadi in the 2:40 Lingfield.

    More poor looking racing over the jumps but Kempton and Lingfield don’t look too shabby and when have looked at the numbers i think I will be having 3 or 4 more bets apart from Spwarticus!

    Good Luck

    Turf Talk 06/01/15 6:46 PM Reply


    • Good luck with whatever you play! Yes the stable for is a concern but when you are getting 14/1, especially when it is a small stable, i am happy to take the chance. Also the horse ran ok 5 days ago, fading in the final furlong over 6f, and he looks to be in ok shape. I am happy to take a chance on him at 14s, and having discovered his profile for these race conditions I would be kicking myself if he went in. And, i take a long term view..he will win again over this course and distance and there will be opportunities to get money back if tomorrow isnt the day.
      Yes the jumping is very poor quality tomorrow sadly.

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 7:17 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I just can’t see Spowarticus overturning New Rich as he was well and truly put in his place last time the two met-and New Rich looked to have a bit of class compared to these other donkeys…
    I may be proved wrong-but what gives u confidence that Spowarticus will be able to beat New Rich this time given he is only I think 4lbs better off….
    Mick

    Mick 06/01/15 7:37 PM Reply


    • Hi Mick,
      it is simply an assumption about the pace and the running style. Spowarticus went off far too quickly when New Rich beat him, fading dramatically in the last 100+ yards. New Rich is a hold up horse who relies on a strong pace, he comes late and fast, a lot needs to fall right for him to win. Now, it is possible this happens again tomorrow. However, it is also more likely that Luke Morris will judge pace better than Kirby did (based on how he rode him at wolvs) and while New Rich may flash hard again, the line may just come in time for the selection. If he goes off too quick again, then no he wont overturn the form. I dont pay much attention to weight pulls etc, this horse is x better off with x horse.

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 7:52 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, keep up the good work

    the what you said are my win and place bets on my sys so lets hope for the best m8.

    steve 06/01/15 10:18 PM Reply


  • You should visit http://www.ericwinner.co.uk/ ‘the sprint specialist’ he’s with you on Roys Legacy but with New Rich @ Kempton. I think your assessment above could be spot on ?

    Andy Silvers 07/01/15 8:50 AM Reply


    • Hopefully! either way with Roys Legacy we have beaten the market (unless he drifts again) now into 7s generally and looks to be shortening, so at least the price analysis was good. He rarely disappoints over this CD so we should get a run for our money. New Rich does have a decent chance but in general I dont like backing hold up types. Think we will get a much closer run from Spowarticus this time.

      Josh Wright 07/01/15 9:06 AM Reply


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