Pace Wins The Race: Selection 05/01/15

Well my instinct proved to be right today/yesterday as I avoided putting up any of the ‘shortlist’ as the main selection. As suspected there were decent reasons for opposing them all and, bar Urban Code, they were all rather poor. Urban Code will win races again, and it was good to see him run a decent race on his third start after an extended break. A small field and easy lead will see him go very close in future I think and I will be tracking him closely.

Running Total

6/27 = +14.5 points

UPDATE

Well Might Minnie wasnt so mighty and finished a poor 3rd. For a moment she looked like she had kicked away but alas she wasnt good enough. The Pipe horse was open to improvement and despite the odd sketchy jump did it well. All in all rather poor, including Bashford Ben who was in another county in second. That takes the losing run up to 8 and I will be trying my best to find a winner for tomorrow!

 

 

06/01/14

2.40 Bangor: Mighty Minnie 4/1 – 1 point win

In what is another shocking day’s racing after the feast of the last couple of weeks I have decided to go for the Henry Daly trained mare to get us back in the winners enclosure. You know my approach by now and a horse making their handicap debut isn’t my usual type of bet but I think 4/1 is a decent enough price in a race full of horses that have many questions against them.

Firstly, based on her last runs ,which appear to have been over an inadequate trip, she has front run. Given this is a fairly tight track and i cannot find any other out and out front runners (the Pipe horse may try and be up there) I expect Dikie to bounce her out in front and put her stamina to the test. The trainer is 2/6 with his handicap hurdlers here in the last 2 years (50% won or placed) and the breeding suggests this is what she wants. She is by Sir Harry Lewis whose offspring have a 20% SR over 3 miles in the last 2 years. She is also a sister to the high class Mighty Man who stayed 3m1f. Henry Daly is no mug and I think it is safe to assume that stamina wont be the problem.

That just leaves the opposition, who are a mediocre bunch.

I feel sorry for all of those who keep backing Bourne in the hope of recouping their losses, which must be piling up by now. In fairness  we all have those types of horses in our locker!!  He is a frustrating individual who once had a bit of class. That ‘back class’ is what I assume keeps drawing people in. Now he ran well a couple of days ago and a repeat of that run means he is entitled his place in the market. However he is now 3/30 over hurdles and isnt one to trust. He has had 18 runs over hurdles beyond 2m4f and never won, and has never placed beyond 2m6f. I will never (or very rarely) back an exposed horse who has proved he doesnt stay a certain trip. McCain is also only 3/35 over handicap hurdles at Bangor in the last 2 years. We shall see how he runs, I do hope he can recapture some winning form at some point but i wont kick myself if he does win. 7/2 is short for an exposed horse with unproven stamina who also doesnt like winning.

Saint John Henry won a weak C5 handicap 2 runs ago and takes a step up in trip. That could bring about some improvement but i am happy to take him on especially as he fell last time out as well. Petrovic comes from the JonJo stable and I simply wont touch any of their runners at the moment until they show some more form. He’s The Daddy has been pulled up in 3 of his last 4 runs and i simply wont back a runner like that. He may bolt up but I wont kick myslef that i wasnt on. Thomas Junior’s trainer is 1/49 since 2009 – no thanks. The horse is also 0/9 and left the Pipes, which says it all. Heathfield returns from chasing and I generally dont like backing chasers reverting to hurdles. Truckers Highway and the Boogeyman have too many questions to answer for me.

So, all in all a fairly strong chance I think. You never know how horses will run on their handicap debut but the trainer knows the time of day and he has booked his go-to man. Hopefully she leads, she should stay, and if she is well handicapped we should be collecting come 2.45.

UPDATE: I am sure when I looked last night that Richard Johnson had been booked but he now appears to be at Sedgefield. Jacke Greenhall is on and he has a decent enough record at the track which is good. This wouldn’t have effected whether this was a bet but I would have preferred Johnson on!

 

Shortlist

3.00 Sedgefield – Bashford Ben 7/2. I cant decide what to think about this race and in the end my instinct said to leave him alone. I have looked through the race in depth and probably wont be able to stop myself having half a point on. He showed a very good attitude last time in what was a bit of a crawl, battling back well over the last to win. I liked his attitude and he is the most consistent of all those in the race over fences. He has never won from a mark this high but his prominent running style, his good health, his liking for soft ground, longer trip and small field make me think he will go very close. I think 7/2 is fair but his liking for placing rather than winning and running from a mark he has never won from made me just leave him alone. I dont think I would put you off backing him 🙂 The only danger i can see is the fav who is unexposed and could run well..but he could equally make mistakes etc. The rest I have discounted for one reason or another.

Toofeeg is interesting in the 1.50 Southwell. He is a prominent racer who is also making his handicap debut. He could be well handicapped or not. He has been running in weak maidens and although the trainer has a very impressive SR here – 36%- (13/36) there was enough doubt for me to leave alone at the price.

Good Luck

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

9 Comments

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  • Hi Josh

    Its mighty Minnie for me to, clear highest on my numbers, its a 2pt’er for me. I will also be backing 3 pm Volo Mio,1 pm Deans Walk,2.30 Un Guet Apens. Still making my mind up on one other 1.40 Weststreet

    Jimbo 06/01/15 11:02 AM Reply


    • Good luck Jimbo. Price has gone for me on Volo Mio so will stick with Bashford Ben but he has been backed as if he expected to hack up. I do like Upbeat Cobbler in the 2.10 who needs to go left handed, small bet at 11/2 as it is a novice but i couldnt resist!

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 11:14 AM Reply


  • Welcome Josh. Hope you enjoyed your break!

    Meydan’s Spring Carnival begins on Thursday and i cant wait! Maybe worth keeping an eye on. The dirt has replaced the Tapeta and the signs are that horses that race with the pace will prove profitable during the Carnival particularly in the early stages. Hold up horse just dont seem to be cutting at present. So pace should be winning the races.

    Good luck to all those playing today as it does like a real shocker!

    Turf Talk 06/01/15 11:38 AM Reply


    • Cheers…Good luck with Meydan – never been a festival I have got involved with but will keep an eye on it, especially the pace angle. What do you use to do your Meydan research?
      Yes a bit of a shocker today!

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 11:43 AM Reply


      • Hi Josh… Well in the last three months have been doing my own speed ratings and sectionals. Meydan is a good track for the taking your own sectionals but I haven’t looked at it so far this year. Its been hard enough doing the speed ratings for the UK and Ireland, haha. Going ok so far. Still needs some tweaking but I will post some on here when am happy with them.

        Turf Talk 06/01/15 12:36 PM Reply


  • Two to keep an eye on are:

    Tony Martins’s Dara Tango has the look of a Cheltenham Festival plot horse. Got him doing a nice final sectional in the Pertemps Qualifier at Leopardstown. held up at the back by Ruby Walsh and was never out into the race. Is now qualified for the final and shouldn’t get an increase in his mark either 😉 Job done really on that score! Will also be better suited by the likely ground at the Festival

    Vic’s Canvas – Late starter to chasing but he has taken well to them. Won the Cork National over 3m 4f and was stating on really strongly at the end of the Paddy Power. Not sure how the handicapper will react and he is only a small horse so he is better carrying low weights in his races but i think there is another good staying chase in him before the season is out.

    Turf Talk 06/01/15 1:01 PM Reply


  • Surprising how many L.T.O fallers win N.T.O ( Saint John’s Henry) the market tends to leave them alone thus creating value. Never mind onto the next one

    Jimbo 06/01/15 2:50 PM Reply


    • Yes in truth I have never looked at the stats in that much depth, affects animals differently. His jumping was a bit sketchy again, but he was open to improvement, and improve he did. Minnie was a bit poor, though she was kicking clear a few furlongs out but not good enough on the day.

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 2:55 PM Reply


    • I had to get digging at the stats Jimbo…and they dont support what you say…well i should say you have to be very selective with which fallers you back but in general they do very poorly. Have just had a look at all handicap hurdles since 2010, horse 14/1 or under, top 3 second to last start (showing some form at least) but Fell last time out…

      396 bets, 39 wins, 9.85% win SR, -134 points at SP, -84 at BSP…perform 35% below market expectations. So, something to build on, and they clearly win from time to time, maybe will do some more digging 🙂

      Josh Wright 06/01/15 3:30 PM Reply


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