Pace Win The Race: Selection 19/12/14

Re Cap

Well my worst fears about Dr Red Eye came true but at least we got 11/1 about a 7/1 shot and while that is no comfort to the wallet it is the way to win long term. I think he was worth the risk and wont be backing him again for a while. I have noticed that he does appear to have a particular rest pattern that I will keep an eye on. His form when running in handicaps between 31-60 days from his last run reads.. 6 1 1 3 1 3 6 1 4 .  His form for all other runs in handicaps outside of that rest period reads… 2 2 4 4 2 8 2 7 3 10 7 6 6 4 6 13 7 7 2 4 3 6 7 1 1 (both chester) 5 16 8 10 12 5 8 10 9 5 10 6 10 10 8 7 4 11 …. so he does run well at others times clearly, but as a future ‘way in’ it may be best to focus on when he has had a bit of a rest. Now he either likes running after a bit of a slight break and/or the trainer gets him to peak at this point to land a gamble or two, who knows. I will be sending some ‘profile’ horses next week to keep an eye on in the coming months..

anyway,

Total now 6/25 = +16.5

In an effort to avoid the first ever blank week in the short history of the Pace Wins The Race we go to Ascot…

2.30 Ascot 

Dunraven Storm 5/1 (PP) = 1 point win 

UPDATE: Outclassed, and not good enough, simple as that. I dont play in those races very often (unless at Festivals maybe) and that is probably why. On hurdles form he finished in the right place. The winner won it very well and jumped superbly. 

6/26 = +15.5

Quite a straight forward bet. This horse should lead, will appreciate the slightly longer trip, and has the best chase form on offer. I just think 5/1 is too big and underestimates his actual chance. Is he the most likely winner? The market suggests not. But he is the most experienced of these over fences and i would rather take his form than the potential of PTiT Zig. I found it interesting that Nicholls has never won this race since 1997 (although I dont know how many he has entered) whereas Hobbs has won it before. Henderson won it with Simonsig, who was already a G1 winner.  Josses Hill is following a very similar path to his stable mate and clearly is expected to win well. However he is making his seasonal reappearance and it will be the first time he has jumped a fence in public. The small field will help and he simply may be too good for the selection, but I am happy to take a chance on him at 5/1, given I think he could easily be the second fav and much shorter. Older horses have won this race before, the jockey has won on him over hurdles and the horse has won at Ascot 3 times. I think this trip will be more to his liking, we know he jumps well on the whole, and will not take any prisoners. If there is a race where the fav could be turned over it will be this one.

I know backing a horse that I don’t think is the most likely winner may seem strange to some people but the key to winning money long term is to back horses you think are underestimated by the market in relation to their actual chance of winning. My instinct says that given he has the best chase form on offer 5/1 is too big.

 

Shortlist

Nothing else really takes the eye tomorrow…our old friend Wreningham (who came 2nd for us at 16/1 southwell) runs in the 18.20 Wolverhampton. He is 0/8 at Wolvs although has never ran on this new surface. I was concerned that Luke Morris doesnt take the ride and instead is on Warm Order who he won on last time out. I can only think he had the choice and while jockey decisions are not always to be trusted i think that is a decent indication. Shaft of Light may also take on Wreningham for the lead however if he can transfer his last run to this course maybe he will go well again. I suspect he wont be much of a price either though.

Sharjah looks like he could lead in the 20.40 Dundalk and he has been very consistent. I am slightly concerned by the high draw, the inexperienced jockey and that his stamina appears to be stretched over the 12f. His recent winning form has been over the 11f trip and he may just get caught close home. However, he is in form, with the jockey claim he is well handicapped and he should go ok if overcoming the draw.

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

10 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, just a few words of thanks for your advice .Your write ups and reasons for backing the selections are extremely
    well written and win or lose you back your selections for the right reasons.As a very modest backer I have followed you
    and enjoyed some good winners and also a very decent profit, so long may you continue.When you go to a paid service
    (not too soon I hope) as you surely will,you will have a ready made client base.One last thing Josh,Happy Xmas.
    Tom

    Tom 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Tom, glad you are enjoying them! I will quite happily take +15 points and say a 10/1 big race winner every month on the blog! I have no immediate intentions for a paid service based on what i put on the blog so far. I am a systems man first and foremost from a paid service perspective and i have some ideas for a kind of ‘horse profile service’which I am thinking about… ‘tipping’ is a tricky game no doubt and this is the first time I have consistently put my thoughts out there on certain races..i wouldnt dare dream of launching a subscription service until i have proved myself over at least 6 months i think…however, I was thinking of adding some kind of donations button for the Pace selections…that way, if you have a profitable month, depending on your stake size, you may feel generous to donate a few quid 🙂 If that worked well then the ‘Pace’ selections would never need to become a standard subscription service. We shall see. I didnt start these posts with an idea of charging..i just wanted to offer my views and give people a reason to visit the blog, and hopefully win them a few quid along the way, whatever your stake size.
      thanks for taking time to post, and happy Xmas to you too,
      Josh

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • hi josh, i would just like to follow tom and wish you all the best for christmas and a prosperous new year.i think your idea of a donation button for the pace selections is a good idea because you will have to cover your costs for your site and pay per click etc.,best wishes whatever you decide.bill

    bill 2 years ago Reply


    • Thanks Bill, all the best to you and your family too. I will get thinking about the future but wont be doing anything before end of January I suspect at the earliest.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • A tough day’s racing. I agree with you in regard to the value about Dunraven Storm I have him at around 3/1 on my tissue so the 5/1 available is a clear value bet as you mention.

    I am glad you point out that it’st not all about finding winners if you want to make money from betting you have to find value. In fact one of the few ways to make money in this game is to get a small profit on each race. I will often back two or three horses in a race. occasionally prices allow me to back four horses even in an 8 or 9 horse field to chisel out a 1pt or 2pt profit on a race.

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


  • Dunraven was not in the same league as the other two-Josses Hill&Ptit Zigg-jockey was baling with about 3 to go…..

    Mick 2 years ago Reply


    • yes agree…two very classy animals, on hurdles form he finished in the right place, distant 3rd, am sure many done their money on the fav. Ptit Zig jumped superbly and has class. Will be avoiding these novice races moving forwards.

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Value equals long term profit, which equals happy members, which equals a happy service owner. Everybody’s happy!! Happy Xmas Josh and fellow members may we raid the bookies satchels over the xmas period to pay for all those extra’s at this time of year!!!

    Jimbo 2 years ago Reply


    • Cheers Jimbo! Indeed, no better feeling than spending bookies money

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • He’s another who needs a rest imho, best first couple of runs then it’s downhill till after a break. He’ll be back in the spring. DR wasn’t anywhere near his best, nor the winner, 160max is the most I can give him. I haven’t seen anything this side of the water that is going to live with Vautour in the Arkle. Paddy Power are offering to anyone who bets £20 a horse at Cheltenham a free £5 bet for every time it wins in between, Vautour would be my Nap but can’t see him running more than twice before the Festival.

    Andy Silvers 2 years ago Reply


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