Pace Wins The Race: Selection18/12/14

Re cap

Arkaim ran a decent race, and much like Harris the day before I have no complaints. The one ‘could be anything but needed to prove it on the course, horse’ bolted up and was backed to do so. I am adamant that unless you follow the Venetia Williams yard systematically, or were close to the yard, the only  way you could have backed that horse was to lump on once you saw the money arrive. He was backed from 8/1 into 11/4 and although he pulled hard he had any amount in hand. Arkaim confirmed the form with the Tom George horse and probably ran up to their level. While not the strongest class 2 the winner should be kept on side but you cant think he will be much of a price on his next few starts.

6/24 = +17.5 points

18/12/14

2.30 Southwell

Dr Red Eye 1 point win – 11/1 with a few bookies.

I have deliberated over this race enough and nearly made it a no betting day but I think we should go for it on this one.

He is unpredictable, moody, and unreliable but he is a guaranteed front runner who is handicapped to win and who will handle the race conditions, if putting his best foot forward. He is also a double figure price. We backed him last time based on his Kempton run where he showed determination to stick on having not had an easy lead. Given the way he faded at Lingfield suggested that he went too hard, or he just wasnt up for it. The question is over his attitude and whether he keeps on going. He has the ability to win this race. He will get a lead and he stays the distance at the course (has won over 1m at Southwell).

As with a lot of races at this level horses take it in turns to beat each other. What interested me was quite a few of these are a few lbs above their last winning mark and could be vulnerable. However it is a competitive race and given lots of them have course form you could make a case for quite a few. I dont have the time to go through every runner in this post but Dr Red Eye will be up front which is the place to be and if he sticks on like he did at Kempton two starts back I think he will go very close. Many of the others also have a very low strike rate at C4 level. Pretty Bubbles would look to be the main danger.

Any result is possible here and it is a risky selection but in my opinion we are getting a decent price.

 

Shortlist

2.10 Towcester

Monty’s Revenge… I think he should lead and has a solid chance in what is a weak race but his last 2 wins have been 3 runner hacks around this course. The last run was a farce, a 3 runner race where the other 2 fell. All in all i think he should be in the top 3 as for the grade he is quite consistent. The trip is fine, so is the track and the ground. He could grind these into the ground but 7/2 feels right to me. I am also weary of the unexposed Ben Pauling runner and there are a few of these in here who havent had many chase runs. If he touches 5 or 6/1 i may have half a point on but my instinct says to leave alone at the moment. We shall see if i have picked the right one tomorrow!

 

 

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8 Comments

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  • I think your right about the price about Dr Red Eye and good luck there. Not sure what bets if any i will be doing today. Trainer Nick Williams had a winner yesterday which is encouraging so his Wayward Frolic can run well in the 2:50 at Exeter but there will probably a bit of competition for the lead in that one and the 8/1 available looks a couple point short of what i am looking for, Not a pace horse but the booking of Adam Kirby for course specialist Asia Minor in the 6:45 Kempton looks eye catching and 4/1 looks fair value.

    Good luck with the old Red Eye!!

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


  • i meant 6/1 Wayward Frolic was a bit short 8/1 would be nice though 😉

    Turf Talk 2 years ago Reply


  • No offence but think I’d rather take the 12/s about Rock Of Ages in the preceding race, looks a bit easier than the scrap this race could be, like Kung Hei Fat Choy & Red Primo at least & think the Dr will be lucky to place. Patriotic is a system horse who might just be suited by drop in trip. Can’t wait to tune in to that…

    Andy Silvers 2 years ago Reply


    • I dont take offence Andy! Blimey if we all had the same opinion racing and life would be rather boring. I agree it is a risky bet and if Dr Red Eye isnt on a going day (and he has had a few of those) then he wont place, simple as that..if he runs anywhere near up to his best though he could make 12s look silly, but it is an if. Can see why you like Rock of Ages, although he is 1/16, second run for trainer (who is at least in form) and after a break of 86s days, would be enough to put me off 🙂 but he is a good price and in what is an awful race on paper he has a good as chance as any, decent place record over course, and the distance, so if race fit will be bang there. Good Luck!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


    • Good call with Patriotic Andy. Won it well. Dr Red Eye as feared was poor again!

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


      • Looking at my figures for DR Red Eye, it seems these last 4 months he is consistently running a stone below what he was 12-18 months ago. He’s had 8 races in the last 4 months, his last win came off a break of 53 days & last time he clocked a decent figure came off an even longer break. I also think he’s better on Tapeta or Polytrack – so a rest at least required imho unless he’s dropped in class ? ?

        Andy Silvers 2 years ago Reply


        • Hi, I didnt see this comment before the latest post on here but I have now clocked on to his ‘rest pattern’ – i have highlighted it in tomorrow’s blog post and breaks of 31-60 days are certainly when he appears to run at his best. Agree he has been out of form..interestingly, and in line with his profile, his 4th at Kempton was after a more than 30 day break and he only faded very late there having looked like he would be in the top 3. So, we shall just wait until he appears after a decent break and see how he does.

          Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Yeh-agree its a tough race to predict today-I am not that confident Dr Red Eye will be quite good enough…
    Also-Asia Minor could be a good thing in 6.45-takes a massive drop in class,and is a course specialist-so we will see.
    Good luck everyone
    Mick

    Mick 2 years ago Reply


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