Pace Wins The Race: Selection 12/12/14

Re-Cap

Un Anjou did everything i expected him to do. He tracked the pace which was being set by inferior/unfit horses and took it up turning for home. The only danger was the King horse. Would we have won if he had jumped the last with any fluency? – who knows- that is a matter of opinion and is guesswork. That is racing. In future we will back a horse who is in front and falls at the last. It all evens itself out.

I would make a tactical observation. Our horse had track position. Now I dont think our horse was necessarily going quicker turning in. He had got into a good racing rhythm going a safe pace for jumping fences and by the home straight had hit ‘his speed’. The horse that fell had to make up ground as he was held up (coincidentally no blame on jock for that,horse was very keen and clearly he wanted to get cover and calm him down) and had to make up ground. I dont know if I am right or wrong here but I would suggest that in order to get to our horse he had to go faster. (he couldn’t just rely on his galloping speed to make up the ground) Obvious I know, but a bit of an issue with a fence coming up. I think he may have approached that fence too quickly (he had to to make up too much ground) and hence the mistake – up until then, when he was lobbing along in behind, he was jumping fine. Anyway, that is just an observation but it is why, in my opinion, Pace (not just front running) and track position is important over fences, and so is proven form over fences. The second was under pressure to close. If he was closer turning in he could have got to the first fence in the straight ahead. Then maybe it would have been a different story.

Anyway, 5s was available and there was a 10p R4 effectively making it 9/2, which is what it will go down as.

Coincidentally the Appleby horse won well in the 16.50, smashed from 6/4 to 8/11 (albeit small 10p R4) Alas I didnt bet on him- 6/4 looked big after the race!

 

Tomorrow’s Pace Selection 

13.50 Doncaster 

Mister Marker 8/1 (Ladbrookes but not BOG until morning, 15/2 general)

UPDATE – well a line through that..i am not sure how the going can go from good/soft to an absolute bog..given way horses were finishing that is deep/sticky ground and although he handles soft he clearly didnt like that. Although there was a late jockey change, he was never put into the race, and the jockey never once picked up his stick which I thought was interesting…given the last drift out again, suggests this may not have been his day, esp after Harding got injured. Anyway, I will be backing him next time out and I will forget that run. 

Running total… 6/21 = +20.5 points = 6.5 point profit on the week. 

 

There are no out and out front-runners in this race but the only one who has ever made the running in recent runs has been Mister Marker. I think he will lead. He is the best stayer in the race, having came 3rd in the 2013 Scottish Grand National. Race conditions are fine and he has a very good chance in this.

Now, to the main reasons I fancy him (bar the fact I think he is too big in the market and his opposition are awful, compared to their price)…

Mister Marker is 8/1 here because he does Pull Up quite a lot. He could do again tomorrow but given he is the classiest horse in the race I am going to take the chance.

Mister Marker is one of my ‘Profile Horses’ that I track. I have over 200 saved in my Horseracebase account and it grows all the time. I like following horses who have a clear pattern for when they perform at their best.

All of this horses wins have come in Class 3 races worth less than 10k to the winner. In all his career races he has ran 9 times in this class winning 3 times, placing in a further 2. He has ran 10 times above this class level and never won. However, as I said he has placed in a Scottish Grand National so has a touch of class.

He is also what i call a ‘rest pattern horse’. I have made a decent amount of money backing horses who show a clear rest pattern. Some horses simply cannot perform when returning to the track within a certain time period. Mister Marker has run 11 times when returning to the track between 16 and 30 days. He has won 4, placed in a further 2. A greater than 50% win and place strike rate. He has ran 22 times outside of this rest pattern, winning 2 and placing in a further 4. Now sometimes this can just be coincidence but I like to know they have won or performed having spent a similar time of the track in the past.

Now I dont know why he has pulled up so many times. Trainer quotes suggest that the ground, races coming too quickly and the wrong type of track have caused problems before. I have noticed that he hardly ever runs well on his first 3 runs of the season. His 4th run form reads… 1, UR (when leading 3 out, won next time out), 4, 1,..?? His 5th run of the season form reads 1,1,1,2 – so, we can get him next time if he fails tomorrow!!

This is a powerful approach because you dont really need to study any other form in the race, which saves plenty of time. Of course with Geegeez Gold Race Cards it doesnt take much more time anyway 🙂  Even if there were a few horses in the race i thought would beat him, at the odds, knowing everything above, i would back him anyway.

However, I will briefly discuss the opposition…

Sixty Something is 1/8 over fences and is too short at 9/4. He needs to prove he truly stays 26f. He unseated rider last time out and fell the time before that, 9/4, no thanks.

Timesishard is only having his second chase run and was pulled up last time out. I dont back this type of runner against proven hardy chase types. No.

No Duffer has a chance. But this is only 20 days after a real slog at Haydock. There is a chance that may have taken something out of him. He needs to prove he stays and while unexposed has only won at C4 level over fences. 2/1 looks short to me.

Swing Hard is unexposed and can be given a chance. However he needs to prove his class having never won above C4 and although he has only had two runs at C3, i am happy to leave this time. This isn’t Sue Smith’s happiest hunting ground either with a record of 8/111 at the track.

Roc De Guye is exposed and has never won above C4 worth less than 6k to winner. He has never won over 26f and is out of form. Not for me.

 

So all in all we have a risky 8/1 shot but one who if he runs to his best will win. He is best suited to race conditions and his profile is right for him. The race is at the right level and comes after the right number of days off the track. I think he will win or be tailed off/pulled up again. He is that type of horse. I will be backing him next time out as well – add him to your tracker.

 

Running Total 

6/20 = +21.5 points profit.

30% Win Strike Rate and a 55% win and place Strike Rate. I wont keep up a 30% WSR but hopefully we can hit a steady 25% which at the odds I play at means we should do quite well.

 

p.s Ruapehu was awful, jumping poorly and being pulled up. Given how bad he was I am going to blame the ground. It was meant to be Good-Soft but with the rain it turned to soft-heavy. I dont think he liked it. I will hold my hands up – i didnt check the weather when putting him up and before betting myself. I dont know if that would have made a difference to me as I probably would have thought 8/1 was worth the risk. As it happened the only classy proven stayer in the race, the evergreen 11yo Incentivise ran a cracker, out-stayed them all and won well on what was a superb day for Richard Lee.

No shortlist tomorrow as I need to start looking at Cheltenham where two races interest me.

 

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Tuesday – The Shortlist report, highlighting the pick of the Instant Expert profiles
Wednesday – Trainer Statistics report, featuring four in-depth summaries
Thursday – Instant Expert tab, available for all races
Friday – Horses for Courses report, outlining which horses have done best – and worst – at today’s course
Saturday – Trainer/Jockey Combo report, pinpointing the ‘job’ combinations of trainer and jockey
Sunday – Pace Analysis tab, providing insight in to how every UK race is likely to be run: which horses might lead, whether the race is likely to be fast-run or a dawdle, which part of the draw might be favoured by a ‘pocket of pace’

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About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • hi josh,just like to say you are making a differance to my life albeit in a small way,but in all my betting life you are one of the very few tipsterswho have come up with the goods.i fully realise you will have losing runs,but overall i believe you have a great system for finding winners and i intend to stay with you.regards bill

    bill 11/12/14 7:19 PM Reply


    • Cheers Bill, much appreciated! I dont think of myself as a tipster, more a race advisor! Hopefully we can keep it up but more than happy with how it is going so far. I dont think this is a difficult game to master if you have the right mental approach, the right tools, and you know what you are good at. We will see if I can keep it up!

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 7:24 PM Reply


  • Hi josh…the two races at cheltenham..are they for Saturday or tomorrow…..just wondering if there’s an update .Thanks.

    Mike 11/12/14 7:43 PM Reply


    • just posted…i am off out so write up will be later..hadrians approach in 2.10, maybe one later in hurdle race. Will email in morning as well i think

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 7:55 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    Was going to go in again each way on this one-even though u advised me against it.However-I have just seen there are only 6 runners so-it will be a win or bust again for me.
    Do u ever do any betting on the exchanges Josh?U could back this for a tidy sum and put a lay trade I/r if u were confident it would get to the front….
    Does anybody else here do this sort of bet?
    Not sure whether to take the 8’s now at ladbrokes as I can’t see this one drifting out much bigger-and all the other bookies are pretty much 7’s&13/2….what u reckon Josh?
    Good luck tomorrow josh
    Mick

    Mick 11/12/14 10:12 PM Reply


  • Hi Mick…
    I dont bet much on the exchanges at all and have never bet in running or traded etc. I dare say there are some people that do but it isnt something that get’s me excited!

    I have put 1/2 point in with Ladbrokes at 8s and taken 1/2 at 15/2 with another bookie just in case he does drift to 10s, although i cant see it myself. For a horse that PU last time I am quiet confident!

    It is a value game and I think he has a decent chance, we shall see tomorrow!

    thanks
    Josh

    Josh Wright 11/12/14 10:25 PM Reply


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