Pace Wins The Race: Selection 11/12/14

Re Cap

Brownville ran a cracker and was given a peach of a ride – a ride, and a jockey that arguably made the difference. In truth I thought he would beat the runner up a bit more comfortably but it was his reserves of stamina, and STD, that won the day. He clearly doesnt have enough gears for this trip and it was a run that confirmed he will need further in time. He showed a great attitude and returned a nice 4 points profit. He was available at those odds with both William Hill and Betfair Sports Book and it will go down as 4/1 🙂 I know most of you may have got 7/2 but given he was backed into 9/4 (highlighting again the need to use BOG bookies) that was still an excellent price!

So, a much needed win after a mini dry spell leaving the record so far as…

5/19 = +17 points. That is from a 18.5 point outlay.

Less said about the shortlist the better. I am not going to bother with these shorties anymore, i will just highlight if they were on the shortlist etc. They were all poor and I rather not dwell on them anymore. I am glad I picked the right one to put up and apologise if you backed any of the others!

Tomorrow’s Pace Selection…

3.10 Taunton 

Un Anjou 1 point win 5/1 (bet365) 9/2 general 

5/1 is too big for this consistent chaser. Simple as that. I think he should be the same price as the King horse, but alas, he isnt trained by Alan King, hence the price. Make no mistake this is a poor race but I think he has every chance of following up his win last time out. Now, he is not an out an out front runner.

I have just purchased about 8 racing books from Amazon, one of which is called The Inside Track, written by Alan Potts in the late 1990’s. He has some interesting thoughts on pace, especially in chase races – the main point being that you dont really want to be held up. Being a lone front runner, or on the pace, is generally the place to be, for a number of reasons that I wont go into now. Anyway, Un Anjou will track the pace and there will be no excuses. Mr Muddle and Unforgettable could lead and I suspect ours will track the pair.

He just held on last time but showed real guts which I like to see. The rating, especially with the jockey claim, is fine and he has ran well off similar marks before. The trainer is in decent form with 3 winners from his last 11 runners and the horse is the only one in the field with recent winning chase form. This really is a mediocre bunch..

 

The Opposition 

This is only Tribulation’s second chase and I want him to show more before I back him having fallen last time when in the process of dropping through the field. Come On Annie is unexposed over fences, this being her 3rd chase run but on her first she was beaten by what looks to be a lap of the track and on her second run she was pulled up. She won a weak C4 hurdle last time out and 7/2 looks quite short to me. Anyway, she hasnt won over fences and may take some time to adjust to the bigger fences. It is best to forget about Unforgettable with a chase record of 1/21 and although he may show something, i will never back a horse with a strike rate like that . Peter Bowen hasnt had a winner here either since 2009. Faustina Pius is 0/8 over fences and although the last couple of runs are promising, again i want to see him win a chase before getting involved. Not for me this time, but you would think he will pick up a race at some point.

That leaves two. Our horse beat Mr Muddle on the one time they have previously met over fences. This is also his first run in 220 days and when he was last seen over fences he was in no form whatsover. I am happy to leave him this time.

Money For Nothing is too short at 11/4 and I want to take him on. This is only his second chase however he could have been flattered in the last. The two market principles both fell so it is a hard race to judge. He is from a staying family and I am surprised they havent stepped him up in trip as he has tended to be out paced. Given he is clearly a nice type on paper, compared to these, and he is unexposed from a powerful yard, it is clear why he is 11/4. On everything he has done on paper he shouldnt be shorter than Un Anjou.

So, we have a prominent runner who has a decent level of Chase form. There are serious questions over all of the other runners and I think 5/1 is too big. He looks to have a decent chance and we should get a decent run for our money.

**

There was nothing else that stood out tomorrow. Bladoun may lead them a merry dance in the 1.10 but it is a poor quality large field handicap hurdle. This is his second run after a long break and his win last time was in a poor race, albeit he was impressive. 11/4 is the right price for me and I wont be betting – i think the market has him right. There was nothing in any of the other races however, ….for interest i like the Appleby horse in the 16.50. There is a bit of pace in this race and I think Kirby will track 2 or 3 pace setters and pick up the pieces. But, he has not been missed by punters and odds of 6/4 are right. This is a short price horse I wont be lumping on, nor advising you too – of course we know what will happen now 🙂

5/19 = +17 points. That is from a 18.5 point outlay.

 

Other Bet (not an official ‘tip’ more some ramblings about a bet I have already placed, in a type of race I do ‘ok’ in)

I have had time to look at the 2.30 and very nearly made this a second Pace selection, but just enough doubt for it to remain a ‘personal’  1 point bet. Ruapehu is the selection at 7/1. Young, unexposed and going places this horse could lead these all the way, if he stays. Trainer comments suggest a real test will be right up his street and he is one of the most progressive horses in this field. I think some of the others have a great chance but this one is over priced at 7/1. he usually jumps fine and is re united with Nick Schofield. The ground is fine, he is a good jumper despite the unseat last time and could be ahead of the handicapper, especially if this trip brings about further improvement. I backed Gregorian King last time at 12/1 when he won, however he has never won over this far and 4/1 is a bit skinny when you are asking an 11yo to do something new. Incentivise is another veteran who always runs his race but I would like to think something younger will get the better of him here. Stoney’s Treasure is coming off a long absence and 6/1 is too skinny for me given the fitness doubt. It would be one hell of a training performance for him to win this. Jonjo won this with a 6yo a couple of years ago but his stable is still cold and i want to see more before backing his. He is superb in these races mind and maybe this is the horse to turn the corner. Barton Gift is just too inconsistent for me and I dont think Handsome Buddy or Viking Blong will be good enough. So I am with a young progressive horse – I know I have often said I like a horse to have been there and done it – that is usually true. However in races over this distance you cant just rely on proven horses at the trip, as often there aren’t many to chose from. Handsome Buddy is the only distance winner (Incentivise has won over further, but is getting on) but I would like to think there is something better than him in the line up. All in all a live front running chance. I dont know if he will stay, hence why he isnt a pace selection, but 7/1 is a decent price to find out.

 

Geegeez Gold… As ever without Geegeez Gold the above analysis would not be possible. You can register FREE FOREVER and gain access to a different part of the service each day…

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Tuesday – The Shortlist report, highlighting the pick of the Instant Expert profiles
Wednesday – Trainer Statistics report, featuring four in-depth summaries
Thursday – Instant Expert tab, available for all races
Friday – Horses for Courses report, outlining which horses have done best – and worst – at today’s course
Saturday – Trainer/Jockey Combo report, pinpointing the ‘job’ combinations of trainer and jockey
Sunday – Pace Analysis tab, providing insight in to how every UK race is likely to be run: which horses might lead, whether the race is likely to be fast-run or a dawdle, which part of the draw might be favoured by a ‘pocket of pace’

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A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

29 Comments

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  • Thanks for all your hard work and analysis Josh…
    Just wanted your opinion on Un Anjou.Typically these days in these sorts of races there are under 8 runners so it make the each way angle less appealing .If there were a minimum of 8 runners-I would have this as a cracking each way bet-but when u are aiming at just two places it is less so.So I think it’s win or but for me tomorrow on this one.
    The second one….-is this an actual tip u are putting up Josh or just advice?
    Well done for Brownville today-and hope the good luck continues….
    Mick

    Mick 10/12/14 9:22 PM Reply


    • Hi Mick…I am generally averse to each-way betting..it is a tricky one. I have read many books by pros etc and their is a mixed opinion but generally a lot of advice says just bet Win only..indeed in Kevin Blake’s book he says betting win only increased his profits by over 30% over the course of a season. There is also a line of reasoning which says bookies flag each way betting and if you do it a lot, successfully they are more likely to restrict your account, whereas if you bet consistent round number stakes to win only you are less likely to get caught.

      In this example I wouldn’t back it each way, and even if there were 3 places i wouldnt at 5/1. I wouldnt want less than 1point win stake on, so i could back 1 point EW, but then would personally rather put 2 points on to win! I like win or bust and it has worked well for me, as you get paid more on the big priced selections

      I have clarified post above…the other bet, at Warwick is for info and you can do with it as you please, I have 1 point on of my own money and is kind of bet i make on a daily basis in 3m+ handicap chases

      Josh Wright 10/12/14 9:44 PM Reply


  • Another winner today josh, I actually got 7/2 thanks a lot, keep up the good work, you are definitely onto a good thing, I know we will have losing runs but the winners will come

    Well done again
    Dave

    Dave 10/12/14 9:28 PM Reply


  • Hi josh,another winner today ,well done.Like the way you anaylise a race,a lot of hard work put in is deserving of the winners ,keep up the good work.

    John 11/12/14 12:01 AM Reply


    • Thanks John – hopefully we can keep the winners coming! Knowing I am putting up a horse for others to back actually makes my race analysis more methodical and in depth which is never a bad thing! If i can continue at this strike rate and profit I will be happy!

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 7:56 AM Reply


  • Just a quick message to say this is one of the best free resources out there. Some great well researched angles. Well done Josh!!

    Not sure if the change in ground will have an effect on Un Anjou? I might regret it but i have left him out today. Very pleased to see Ruapehu is one of your bets. I really fancy this one for the reasons you have given and I think the first time hood can help his cause today.

    Whats your view on the Tom George horse in the 1:00 at Warwick – O’ Maonlai? This is a massive horse who looked like he would need the run at Huntingdon in what looked a fair race for the grade. Yes he is one of my three bets for the day, haha

    Once again well done Josh

    Turf Talk 11/12/14 10:13 AM Reply


    • Thanks for message…sorry I have been out all day and just got back in time for the race.. Ground is tricky and it is hard to tell the going at best of times..unless you wait for first few races, jockeys reports, times etc then you just have to make a judgement. Un Anjou was the best, proven chaser in that field and the ground didnt matter in the end. I have watched Ruapehu race yet but see he was nowhere. I was on the Tom George horse as it is a mini system i follow..was also on the Winner as that was a Geegeez Gold Stat of The Day horse, which is the only other service i follow.

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:30 PM Reply


  • nice one Josh, keep up the faantastic work

    Martin 11/12/14 3:16 PM Reply


  • Another cracking winner and certainly the better jump at the last won him that race – well done

    David 11/12/14 3:17 PM Reply


    • Jumping wins jumps races! Most of the time I will always go with proven horse..the faller had pulled a lot and I reckon we may have held him with the rail anyway! but, who cares, it is jumps racing for a reason. That is why I dont moan if my horse falls when going to win…as over time it evens itself out and you benefit from fallers etc.

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:32 PM Reply


  • Get in!! 2pts again for me on un ajou, he was my top rated and with your in-depth pace report it made complete sense to double up. Happy days!!

    Jimbo 11/12/14 3:18 PM Reply


  • Josh-U BEAUTY!!!
    Woohoo-called it spot on mate-and even allowing for last fence blunder I think Un Anjou could well have held Money For Nothing…talking of money for nothing….!!!!

    Mick 11/12/14 3:18 PM Reply


    • Cheers Mick, yes who knows what would have happened but you have to jump to win chases. We will have horses we back who fall at the last when winning, that is racing, all evens itself out.

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:36 PM Reply


  • Mr Wright, You are spot on again, amazing,

    Philip 11/12/14 3:22 PM Reply


    • Enjoy the good run while it lasts 🙂 But yes, going rather well.

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:35 PM Reply


  • well josh another winner,thought the fav was going to close in,but ours jumped better,well done

    bill 11/12/14 3:30 PM Reply


    • you have to jump Bill 🙂 I normally prefer proven chase form, because that can happen. He has the best chase form in the field,and in most cases the only winning chase form, counts for a lot and even SP was too big in my opinion! slight 10p R4, I got 5s so is a 9/2 winner

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:34 PM Reply


  • Nice one again Josh thanks for yet another nice winner

    Kevin 11/12/14 3:31 PM Reply


    • glad you were on Kevin 🙂

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:35 PM Reply


  • Well Done Josh, another nice price winner!

    Andy Silvers 11/12/14 3:35 PM Reply


    • thanks Andy, going rather well at the moment!

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:55 PM Reply


  • Thank you Josh. I had a single win only bet on Un Anjou and doubled it with Appleby odda on horse at Kempton. Hope the double lands. I.am a Sri Lankan and bets in Colombo betting shop. Thanks for your excellent analysis

    Badr 11/12/14 3:41 PM Reply


    • Thanks Badr… i am glad the blog is reaching Sri Lanka, but i do wish your One Day Cricket team wasnt so good! Thanks for your support

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:55 PM Reply


  • Well….what can I say, another good, sorry ,great day for josh, well done!!!!!

    dave 11/12/14 3:50 PM Reply


    • cheers Dave, yes quite happy with Pace selections at the moment! enjoy this run while it lasts, although hopefully losing runs of 7 or so become the longest we suffer in future, but at odds i play at we should win in the end

      Josh Wright 11/12/14 3:54 PM Reply


  • well done on your winning run
    information honest and spot on

    finky1 11/12/14 4:05 PM Reply


  • Winner winner chicken dinner.

    Dan 11/12/14 4:37 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh!! Just before the off I had a noble at 9/2

    Turf Talk 11/12/14 4:47 PM Reply


  • Thanks for another winner Josh. Very much appreciated.

    Goldhorses 11/12/14 5:28 PM Reply


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