Pace Wins The Race: Selection 09/12/14

Well a quiet start to the week. I was right to dodge the McCain horse for this post as he faded again quite badly. I wont be backing him until he shows some more, albeit he ran well for a long way.

Tomorrow’s Selection

3.00 Southwell 

Wreningham 16/1 1 point win

Loyal, albeit relatively new readers given blog isn’t that old, will know that I  wont shirk putting up a horse at a big price. (Oscar Time 33/1 🙂 right, will stop looking back now!)As with any horse at this end of the market there are always a few question marks but in general I think he has a realistic chance and is over priced.

His run last time was his first in 668 days. Safe to say he needed it but he led for a few furlongs and ran ok. The first danger, built into the price, is that he could ‘bounce’ but he has had enough days of the track and will hopefully be ok. He is a prominent racer drawn in 10 and there should be no excuses. He could even lead on his side of the track and will hopefully stay there. He is below his last winning handicap mark and has the services of Luke Morris – a jockey booking that catches the eye. And most importantly, other than the pace angle, is that he is 2 from 5 over course and distance and placed in a further 2. So a win and place strike rate of 4 from 5 over course and distance isn’t bad and makes the 16/1 look appetizing. Some of you may prefer to back him EW but I thought i would go down in a blaze of glory.

So all in all, a lot in his favour.  Now of course he could have regressed to a point where he can no longer win but you would like to think connections have stuck with him for a reason. All in all he should be up there from the off and give us a good run for our money.

The Opposition

Well being a class 6 race there are obviously many horses in here who are unreliable and do not win very often. Firstly I think the favourite is worth taking on. Pearl Noir is a low drawn front runner who should be up there. However he is 0/6 over course and distance and the jockey is only 2/34 at the course. He is also above his highest winning mark but is only 4. He could win but is worth taking on given he needs to prove a liking for a ‘fast’ 5f on this course.

Mebo is only 1/16, Your Gifted is 1/5 at the course but his trainer is 0/39, Indicator is unexposed but the drop in trip poses a question, Master of Disguise has never won a handicap on the AW from 16 tries, Walta has yet to show anything of note, Fathom Five is only 1/22 on AW and has not won over 5f from 10 runs, Under Approval is unexposed but has left the O’Meara yard which is never a good sign and is running after more than 100 days of track, Value Mentor is unexposed but has left Tim Easterby and is unproven on the track, College Doll generall likes conditions but has yet to win or place in a field with more than 12 runners and maybe gets intimidated, also only 2/19 on AW but is 1/3 at Southwell. And Lazy Sioux is untried on the track.

That just leaves Danzoe who is second fav and has a decent chance in my opinion. She has a solid profile. My one concern is that she does tend to come from the back and I dont see a pace burn up. If the horses in front do come back it wont be because they have gone too quickly, more likely they will just not have been good enough on the day. I think the few front runners in the race could stay there.

There are also many trainers who have a less than 10% win strike rate at the course from a decent numbers of qualifiers including L Williamson, Herrington, Baugh, Harris (6/150), Tutty (2/34) Dunnet, Dixon, and Guest. In fact having now written that I should have just listed those trainers with a 10% or higher SR! – Pat Eddery, Bowring, Jenkings.

Pearl Noir should lead the low numbers and our selection should lead the high numbers, or be on the speed in any case. All in all I have seen worse 16/1 shots and fingers crossed for a decent run.

Good Luck

 

Shortlist

12.50 – Grand Vision will win this – a rather bold statement- if staying in his feet. He should lead but did fall last time. This being a novice chase, along with his price of 6/4, meant he was not a selection but given there are a number of doubts over the others, if he jumps and handles the track (two big ifs for the price maybe) then he should win.

Running Total: 4/17 + 14 points

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

10 Comments

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  • Hugh Taylor agrees
    Good luck

    Simon 09/12/14 9:53 AM Reply


    • Always nice when a decent tipster/analyst like him agrees…happy we got the 16s, now 10/1.

      Josh Wright 09/12/14 10:09 AM Reply


  • Pearl Noir is a fair price @ 4/s imho. He seems most progressive having won 3 of his last nine including a personal best last time, only 4 he’s not finished improving yet a 6lb penalty for 3l’s leaves him a couple of pound to spare. This is the best CD for front runners on the AW, he fits in nicely with a couple of systems, Quick Reappearance one & a Nick Mordin Front Running last-time winner returning at same trip. I’d have to do yours EW. I reckon Pearl Noir could be running in (0-80’s before long.

    Interesting race that 12.50, the Daily Star (them that put Mon Mome at 16’s for the Grand National) have Cloudy Copper evens fav with both tipsters going for & 5’s Grand Vision, a topsy turvy world in deed & they obviously haven’t looked at recent trainer stats…

    Andy Silvers 09/12/14 10:15 AM Reply


    • Yep couldnt disagree with any of that analysis on PN, and as you say looks to still be getting better, despite 26 runs already on AW…my main concern, other than Jockey record on track (in fairness he prob hasnt ridden many <5/1, not sure) is the trip..5f at wolvs and kempt different to 5 here and for whatever reason he needs to prove he liked 5f at Southwell - however, he may just be a better horse now than when tried 5f previously, and stronger. It looks a weak race on paper and he is prob worth a saver 🙂 Yep dont blame you going ew, think i prob should have put him up as 1pt ew, as is 1/4 odds but price long gone. We shall see.

      I woulnt touch a Jonjo horse at moment until they start showing somethig - unless they are 25/1 shots and you can take risk, but not for me. It is a novice chase though so no real certs, esp when Grand Vision fell last time out.

      Josh Wright 09/12/14 11:06 AM Reply


      • fair shout! I have put ‘anywhere bar South AW’ next to Pearl Noir’s name. Goes to show again, form anywhere else doesn’t count on the fibre-sand.

        I nearly gave that Top Totti a mention as she split the other two on my figures but Dickie Johnson had ridden for her 3 wins – we might have to wait until she’s fresh again (trait of her sire) before we get a repeat but

        I just looked at the times & Arden Dennis with an OR 78 just clocked a whopper!!

        Andy Silvers 09/12/14 6:12 PM Reply


        • No he didn’t [Arden Denis], the RP made another mistake after confirming with the Timeform website, only 31 seconds wrong?

          But while I’ve been thinking about FR’s since following this blog I have been trying to remember the name of the Jenny Pitman runner that was obviously put into the Gold Cup to usurp the chances of Martin Pipe’s giant bold front running, Carvills Hill (evens favourite he was), in the hope of setting up the race for her other runner, Toby Tobias.

          So I was looking up the breeding of Arden Denis, his unraced mum hails from the family of good jumpers, Golden Freeze & Sparky Gayle and that suddenly reminded me, that’s him!

          Golden Freeze, the 150/1 shot that persistantly harried the favourite for the lead until both held no chance and gave the 1992 Gold Cup to Toby Balding’s 25/1 Cool Ground.

          I hadn’t been into racing that long at the time but you couldn’t help feeling that Mrs P was a crafty madam and that there was a more tactical angle to this game than I had ever imagined.

          Andy Silvers 10/12/14 7:44 AM Reply


  • Well done Josh-just checked result…
    Can’t believe we got done by an even bigger outsider!!It went 20/1 this morn-but I’d already taken 16’s last night…C’est la vie
    Good analysis tho-didnt see the race but did it pan out as u said it would-apart from final result of course!!!!

    Mick 09/12/14 4:01 PM Reply


    • Hi Mick – assumed you backed EW? I was silly to be so gun ho! (although when went back out to 16s i must admit to backing EW and place return covered my win stake 🙂 )

      Yes i would say it did! He led near side..I appear to have omitted winner in write up – but not in notes I made..he was entitled to do that on very old form but I woulnt have backed him – My notes read – ‘3/36 on AW, 2/10 Southwell, needs to show more spark – his decent Southwell form over 3 years ago – not annoyed I didnt back him!
      Pace wise winner was up there down middle as my pace map said he would be – and Fav was up there, but he just doesnt do 5f on this track, dropped out last. So picked right fav to take on. He was smashed in as well.

      No hard luck stories, the winner was 13lb below last winning mark and was just better handicapped, although no real recent form in last few runs, but that is what happens with C6 racing on AW! Did look like we were going to win 2 f out if keeping going but soon apparent winner going better.

      Just looking at tomorrow now,
      cheers
      Josh

      Josh Wright 09/12/14 4:08 PM Reply


  • very unlucky josh.i backed selection ew,so still a plus cheers bill

    bill 09/12/14 4:13 PM Reply


    • yep was a good run, no complaints with result. Hopefully he can find an opening at track over winter and hopefully he will be decent price, and we will be on, when he does. Clearly retains enough ability to win at that level still

      Josh Wright 09/12/14 4:22 PM Reply


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