Pace Wins The Race: Selection 08/12/14

Re Cap

Well Sir Mangan was disappointing and was unable to get the easy lead i thought he would. The Nicholls horse ran ok and the winner was one I didnt give much of a chance too. There is a reason that I dont bet in those races as part of my day to day betting – i dont do novices and I dont do maidens etc – so I have learnt my lesson. I need to focus on my strengths and it is not in those races. In future horses such as above will just be included in a shortlist…

What I do like is a 25 runner 3m 2f Handicap Chase over the Grand National Fences (or the Hennessy 🙂 )…those of you who read the blog post helped yourself to a 33/1 (or 25/1) winner as Oscar Time received another worldy ride from Sam and hung on bravely. I also nabbed the 4th with Alfie Spinner running well at 25/1 for a good EW return. Bruton Port’s run confirms that the JonJo stable is really out of form – unless this was only ever a sighter for April. However, it was a rather good day!

Anyway, there is nearly always a tomorrow in this game..

08/12/14 

NO BET DAY 

This is something I should have done twice before and my instinct says to leave alone. Knowing people are backing these horses with their own money (including me!) I am not going to put up a horse I dont have 100% confidence in.

The one i am interested in is Oscatara in the 13.15 Muss. Now I will be backing him because he is a selection of my latest micro-system which looks at Donald McCain’s handicap chasers in December. He has a 9/1 winner today at Kelso and his stats for the month for those priced 14/1 or under now stand at 1/3 + 7 points profit…those 30 mins stuck in my system building software look like they will pay off!

However….this horse has pulled up in 3 of his last 5 races. How on earth can i put him up with confidence. I can’t make an excuse for all of the PUs and it looks like maybe he is a bleeder or a shirker (although lack of headgear suggests this isnt the case – Donald doesnt hesistate in putting blinkers on his runners). If he were to pull up tomorrow, having ‘tipped’ him I would just curse. Now he should lead, and he likes the ground and it may be the case that he just wants to go right handed – this will be the first time he has gone this way round. He is young, unexposed and comes from the now red hot McCain yard. If there were no PUs in his form line then he would be a selection, without hesitation. But, i just cant do it!

There is nothing that catches the eye on the sand tomorrow. Those races with clear front runners are large fields and I just dont know the form well enough- the All-Weather isnt something I bet on that much at all.

That is it for now, hopefully a decent horse will unveil itself for Tuesday.

Josh

 

 

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6 Comments

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  • Hello Josh, a wise man knows when to keep his money in his pocket! Where’s Mr Fanning? What other front running jockeys do you like?

    Paul 07/12/14 8:21 PM Reply


    • Not sure where he is, but no booked rides on all weather today i dont think. I dont have any preference for front running jockeys at the moment…thankfully Matt at Geegeez is planning on using all the pace data he has to look at pace track bias and to see which jockeys have the best record on front runners..so that will help. The jockey is never the starting point for me, and I have never not backed a horse because of the jockey on board, if the price is right (exception being inexperienced jocks)

      Josh Wright 08/12/14 10:43 AM Reply


  • The explanation given for Oscatara’s Bangor run was that he was unsuited by the soft ground. He has won at Bangor on the soft in a hurdle race. it is forecast good for tomorrow pending rain or sleet if Kelso was anything to go by!!

    Paul 07/12/14 8:28 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul…yes i did see that – firstly I am always wary of a horses performance in soft )or any conditions) in novice/maiden type races as the horse may have outclassed his rivals, despite hating the ground. And maybe that happened with him at Bangor if connections have since said he doesnt like the ground. The one that confuses me was Haydock – because he appears to have pulled up on Good Ground there…if I wanted to I am sure i could make an excuse for every PU..but when you start looking for excuses from my relatively short experience it is best to leave alone.

      Given I have backed him as part of system i hope he bolts up and the ground, combined with going right handed might be what he needs. Maybe he was suffering from a virus like most of McCain yard have i believe in past few months but all looks right now. an interesting race.

      Josh

      Josh Wright 08/12/14 10:38 AM Reply


  • I had a tip for Entitling in the 2.10 Kemp from a group called High Class Equine, they don’t tip often, the form is solid & he was denied a clear run on his debut. Fanshawe is profitable to follow on all runners at the track but not so for 2yo’s down to 6% SR, unlike S bin Suroor whose SR improves to 37% for the same age group as well as being profitable on all runners last 5 years but this New Style, is a 1/2 sis to 5 time Gr1 winner, Dream Ahead (won first three races as 2yo). One to keep an eye on at least & at 6/s looks EW material at least imho

    Andy Silvers 08/12/14 9:57 AM Reply


    • Hi Andy, I will keep an eye out on him, good luck. Some great info and stats as well.
      Josh

      Josh Wright 08/12/14 10:39 AM Reply


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