Pace Wins The Race: Selection 04/12/14

Re -Cap

Having just watched the Spowarticus race live one can only conclude that he has gone off a bit too quickly there. It would have been interesting if Joe Fanning was on board! Maybe he just wasnt good enough but the way he tired in the final 2 f suggests he simply went too quickly. Given he got an easy lead as expected you can only be disappointed that  he didn’t get closer. However, we took 9/2 (some of you may have got 5s) about a 5/2 shot and that is the key to long term profit. I hope you were all on Gorsky Island at Ludlow as highlighted in the video. I should add that given Spowarticus’ running style I would be very confident that he will win for us at some point in the future..just maybe not at Kempton.

 

*** i should add that the winner of the 7.20, New Rich, was the pick of Geegeez Gold Daily Tipping Piece called Stat of the Day. That element of the package alone averages 100 points profit a year from just one bet per day, betting 1 point. Another reason to check it out 🙂 That will teach me for taking on Matt and the team!! ***

 

2.45 Wincanton

Rayvin Black 4/1 (Bet365/Paddy Power) 3/1 general – 1 point win

 

We take a trip down to Somerset tomorrow for the 2.45. Maybe I have been taken in by the Oliver Sherwood runner after the heroics of Many Clouds (a horse I tipped up in a preview post on this blog 🙂 )  however there are solid reasons for why Rayvin is a decent bet at 4/1.

As always with ‘Pace Wins The Race’ he looks to be a confirmed front-runner, having led on his previous three runs.  The only other horse in the race that has led in any of his previous four runs is Minella Definitely. He is versatile and I hope these two young jockeys dont cut each other’s throats. Rayvin looks to be a better and faster horse so hopefully he can get to the front and stay there.

Before getting onto his form and that of some of the others in the race let’s have a quick look at the trainer. Oliver Sherwood has his string in fine form. A quick click of the Geeggeez Trainer Form button tells me that in the last 30 days his 28 runners have produced 7 winners at a 25% win strike rate with 57% of all runners at least placing. His form in the last two weeks is just as good with 3 winners from his last 13 runners with 54% of all runners making the frame. So, we know there is nothing wrong with the stable. In truth his course form is nothing to shout home about and although he has had no winners from his 10 runners here in the last 365 days, 7 of them have made the frame.

To the horse… well he is young, unexposed and open to plenty of improvement, this being only his third handicap. What caught my eye was that last November connections though he was good enough to compete in a C1 Listed Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, having previously demolished his opponents in an Exeter Novice race. While he struggled to compete he did lead for quite a way and finished a respectable 6 of 12, 13 lengths off the winner. That was the last we saw of him until the 3rd of November this year. He ran respectably but I expect that he needed the run, having run freely for a large part of the race. Provided he doesn’t bounce (second run after returning from a fairly lengthy break) I would expect him to go very close with conditions in his favour. He also has course form, has generally been consistent and could be a cut above the others.

The main dangers look to be Minella Definitely and the Hobbs horse Powerful Action. The former has won his last two races and steps up in class here. That, along with his inexperienced jockey and the fact he wont get an easy lead were enough to put me off – but he should be on the premises. Powerful Action is interesting but doesn’t look to have progressed as much as one would have hoped. He came 3rd in a c5 handicap at Chepstow, won a C4 race at Ludlow. and came 3rd in his last race at Taunton,which was a c4. I prefer the more progressive profile of the selection and I think he is open to more improvement. I could be wrong and I expect Powerful Action to be up there but hopefully Rayvin is too well handicapped. And of course our horse will have track position.

While nothing in racing ever surprises me the rest either look out of form or exposed. The Alan King horse is only 4 but he is yet to win a hurdle race from 6 attempts and I want him to show a bit more before backing him.

Hopefully we can get back on track tomorrow,

Josh

 

Shortlist 

The only other prominent racer that caught my eye was Lumpy’s Gold for Paul Nicholls in the 1.45 Wincanton. The yard is on fire and has a great record here. The horse is a bit in and out and is clearly difficult to train, having spent another 49 days of the track. That did concern me however this looks a mediocre bunch and you would think it is between him and the Harry Fry runner. All in all a doubt over his well-being was enough for me not to make him a selection but given connections, and his consistent course form, it will be interesting to see if the money comes. Currently 5/1 in places.

 

Running Total

4/14 = + 16.5 points (re calculated after noticing an error)

 

 

p.s remember you can get a free 10 day trial of Geegeez Gold by clicking the link below. You too could be finding your own pace selections, or using many of the other money making reports which I will talking more about tomorrow.

 

 

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17 Comments

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  • Hi Josh, great analysis with Gorsky Island. Have you been listening to RUK. James Willloughby has been opining on the benefits of backing horses that win from the front to follow up. Very interesting. He claims there is significant statistical evidence to suggest that they are underbet due to the prevalence of the opinion that such runners have nicked the race and won’t follow up.
    Hugh

    Hugh 03/12/14 6:58 PM Reply


    • Hi Hugh, that is certainly an interesting theory and you often hear lazy analysis which suggests that because a horse won from the front the hose is not as strong and everything else behind must have given the leader too much rope. At the end of the day certain horses need riding in a certain way and if you can find a front runner, or horse up with pace, that has the form to compete you can do very well. I am tracking all previous bets so it will be interesting to see how they do next time out, esp the winners.

      Josh Wright 03/12/14 7:48 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Another cracking day despite spowarticus,keep up the good work, all of this is going to pay for a long holiday in Portugal

    Dave

    Dave 03/12/14 7:30 PM Reply


    • Good Stuff Dave, yes I cant complain, I would have taken 1 of them from video to win at the start of the day. It looked good for the first few furlongs but we will get out money back and more on him at some point in the future!

      Josh Wright 03/12/14 7:51 PM Reply


  • hi josh,i agree with you that he went off far too quick @ think he just burned out in the final part of the race..nice one in the 2.10 keep it up, regards bill

    bill 03/12/14 7:47 PM Reply


    • Cheers Bill – that is the only thing to conclude. Hopefully he will be undervalued when he comes out next, hopefully at Wolverhampton or maybe Southwell where trainer does ok i think. One to keep an eye on in next few runs esp if getting easy lead again..and also for the flat season. He could do some damage up against a rail, at Nottingham say. He has some speed for his level.

      Josh Wright 03/12/14 7:50 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh, Spowarticus as you know was up 14 lb

    I think that was enough to stop it.

    Good call in the chase.

    Regards James

    James 03/12/14 8:24 PM Reply


    • Yes – maybe that was enough to stop him (well it looks like it was!).., a smaller field, different track and slightly less ferocious pace may see him return to winners enclosure, we shall see.

      Josh Wright 03/12/14 8:28 PM Reply


  • Hello Josh and folks,

    I thought A Kirby went off too quickly, it does take a good pilot to judge pace from the front and hard to choke one back if you do go off too quick. However it did set the race up nicely for New Rich who I’d also backed as a saver bet although I was rooting for the former as it was carrying more cash! I like your thinking when analysing the races even the non pace angles. I don’t listen to the pundits on the racing channels as they spew too many clichés.

    The geegeez site is offering lifetime membership, is this correct? What’s the catch especially considering the work that has gone into it?

    Paul

    Paul 03/12/14 9:00 PM Reply


    • Hi Paul,

      Yes agree, maybe had too much weight as well but never mind. Will be keeping an eye on him.

      yes geegeez is offering Lifetime membership..that is what i signed up to, it makes financial sense if you stay for long run, which I will be. I think a couple of other readers from comments on this blog have signed up to lifetime. No catch whatsoever as far as i am aware. I know Matt personally and I think given this was a new project in the last year, he wanted to reward the early adopters so to speak. I would be surprised if Lifetime option is available for too much longer.

      you should give it a go 🙂
      Josh

      Josh Wright 03/12/14 9:40 PM Reply


  • Just signed up!!

    Paul 03/12/14 10:36 PM Reply


    • You wont regret it Paul…and there is so much more to the package than what i have shown so far..enjoy the reports..especially Jockey/Trainer combo, their daily tipping piece Stat of The Day etc..will be doing a quick 5 min video on those this morning.
      Happy Punting!
      Josh

      Josh Wright 04/12/14 9:43 AM Reply


      • Did you go for lifetime in the end or one of other options?

        Josh Wright 04/12/14 9:53 AM Reply


        • The full monty!

          Paul 04/12/14 7:58 PM Reply


  • Thanks for the shortlist Josh. I dutched the pair in running. (almost 60 profit) I have read some stat somewhere about Harry Fry leading up-to Christmas.
    Regards
    Richard

    Goldhorses 04/12/14 2:14 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    I could not split Rayvin and Powerful so backed both, great to chin the goofy brazilian on the line!!!

    Jimbo 04/12/14 2:58 PM Reply


    • Haha, yes that was close! Glad you had a ‘saver’ or bigger on Powerful Action, he was entitled to go close…no real excuse for the Pace selection, beat SP again..i thought his pulling may have been because he was too fresh lto after break, but clearly he is just a head strong horse, when he learns to settle he could be dangerous.

      Josh Wright 04/12/14 3:01 PM Reply


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