Time to start backing Donald McCain (+Emma Lavelle Review)

I think I have noticed a trend with the yard of Donald McCain and it could be one that helps pay for Christmas

The Donald McCain yard has been quiet in recent weeks but in the last few days there have been signs that things are about to turn around –and this would fit with recent history. Two weeks ago I opened up my system building software to see if there were any trainers who did well with their chasers in the month of December. More importantly their record in December had to be better than any other month which would indicate it was a month that they targeted and/or had their string ready to fire.

Donald McCain was the only trainer that stood out. His December record with handicap chasers is as follows…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 95 25 26.32 56.88 45 47.37 59.87 78.31 87.99 16.29 1.31
2013 27 9 33.33 30.79 14 51.85 114.04 40.3 149.26 7.83 1.59
2012 13 6 46.15 24.38 6 46.15 187.54 26.15 201.12 2.53 2.04
2011 14 2 14.29 -5.25 4 28.57 -37.5 -4.32 -30.89 -5.48 0.61
2010 4 0 0 -4 3 75 -100 -4 -100 3.53 0
2009 11 1 9.09 -5.5 4 36.36 -50 -5.06 -46 1.86 0.48
2008 14 4 28.57 17.5 8 57.14 125 23.11 165.05 6.03 1.59
2007 8 3 37.5 2.96 6 75 37 2.14 35.62 0 1.96
2006 4 0 0 -4 0 0 -100 0 0 0 0

 

As you can see this is an impressive record. A 26% win strike rate is solid and so is his place strike rate. Most importantly he is operating at 31% above market expectations meaning his horses are going off at bigger prices than they should be – the key to long term profitable betting. What really caught my eye was the record in the last two years. I think he is improving as a trainer and he is probably getting better horses to go to war with.

This appears to be the time to catch his chasers as you can see form his record in every other month over the same time period..

Month Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
January 80 13 16.25 1.38 32 40 1.73 2.58 0.15 0.88
February 80 13 16.25 -19.07 28 35 -23.84 -23.36 -7.95 0.79
March 88 10 11.36 -24.34 29 32.95 -27.66 -28.11 -7.49 0.63
April 77 11 14.29 -16.24 24 31.17 -21.09 -8.91 -12.81 0.81
May 76 11 14.47 -25.03 22 28.95 -32.93 -15.11 -20.17 0.73
June 29 4 13.79 -7.62 10 34.48 -26.28 -11.11 -2.37 0.74
July 32 5 15.63 -0.5 8 25 -1.56 6.38 -6.5 0.9
August 25 3 12 -9.5 8 32 -38 -12.56 -5.07 0.59
September 14 2 14.29 -0.12 3 21.43 -0.86 4.52 -3.17 0.7
October 88 9 10.23 -36.37 23 26.14 -41.33 -26.9 -17.68 0.54
November 112 12 10.71 -34.25 25 22.32 -30.58 -7.24 -23.7 0.64
December 95 25 26.32 56.88 45 47.37 59.87 78.31 16.29 1.31

 

It is the only month where he performs above market expectations and I think we need to keep all of his handicap chasers onside during this month.

So, the rules…

  1. Donald McCain
  2. Handicap Chase
  3. December
  4. 14/1 or shorter

 

And that is it. Now, there have only been a handful of horses priced over 14/1 and although none of them have placed I wouldn’t necessarily be put off but bigger priced horses – but I would advise looking at their form chance.

I don’t think there are any other filters to put in. He has a decent record across a spread of tracks. The only one where he has struggled so far is Wetherby where he is only 1/14. However that is a small sample size and I wouldn’t dismiss his Wetherby runners out of hand just yet.

So, that is it. I have yet to back his December runners with my own money so I am a bit cautious. However all the evidence suggests this is the time of month to catch his chasers and I dare say I will back them systematically, probably starting off with ½ point win bets, although given his decent place strike rate EW betting would be worth consideration.

I will review his performance at the start of January but in the meantime let’s hope he can make us 30 points which would be nice!

 

***

Emma Lavelle – A Review

If truth be told it was a bit of a disappointing two months for Emma Lavelle and her hurdlers/NHF horses – especially for anyone starting out in November. However, the approach was still profitable, just! If we look at the results below we can see that 2014 was poor compared to previous years..

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) P/L(Plc) MxOdd A/E
ALL 175 50 28.57 135.54 88 50.29 77.45 178.57 102.04 49.05 15 1.48
2014 36 7 19.44 6.15 15 41.67 17.08 9.2 25.55 -0.03 15 1.02
2013 29 11 37.93 22.5 19 65.52 77.59 26.77 92.32 14.38 13 1.75
2012 23 3 13.04 1.25 6 26.09 5.43 1.58 6.89 -4.67 15 0.72
2011 34 13 38.24 55.67 20 58.82 163.74 74.76 219.88 20.01 15 2.16
2010 27 10 37.04 26.59 16 59.26 98.48 33.82 125.24 12.05 15 1.65
2009 26 6 23.08 23.38 12 46.15 89.92 32.44 124.77 7.31 15 1.35

 

Now from my own records, I can see I made £263 over the two months, betting 1 point to win per horse (£20 per point). However, £230 of that was made in October and it was annoying that November was poor, albeit profitable.

I will stick with Emma Lavelle again next year and we can all back her from the start of October. If she doesn’t bounce back next year, especially in November, it would then be time to monitor the approach and maybe shelve it.

 

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

6 Comments

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  • Will this become one of the OTT bonus selections Josh?

    Dave 01/12/14 4:14 PM Reply


    • Hi Dave,

      I am torn in all honesty. I would like to see one more year of McCain proving himself before doing that…however, i do plan to add it in OTT blog asap, and if i make clear my reservations members can do as they please–i certainly have not problem posting them in area. Would you like it if they were?

      Josh Wright 01/12/14 4:19 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh – I tend to check the selections myself every night out of interest anyway and then check against your selections to make sure I haven’t missed anything so I think I would be happier at the moment just monitoring Don McCain’s selections and see how they pan out. I was really asking as I like to keep a spreadsheet of all the OTT bonus selections. I must admit they are looking good at the moment – many thanks

    Dave 01/12/14 5:41 PM Reply


    • Cheers..well those Bonus trainers are in better nick than the OTT ones at the moment but it will turn around. Yes i think I will monitor McCain for a week or two and then see whether I post them.
      All the best
      Josh

      Josh Wright 01/12/14 5:49 PM Reply


  • After I started to follow your Emma Lavelle plan she seemed to often send out only chasers!

    Charles Beagrie 01/12/14 10:16 PM Reply


    • Yes November was a bit of a poor show winning only about 1 point..maybe she is changing her approach and is one to keep an eye on next year! That is how it goes sometimes, hopefully Donald McCain can have a successful December!

      Josh Wright 01/12/14 11:05 PM Reply


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