National Hunt Handicap Hero

When looking at micro systems and angles, especially those that are trainer based, I like to keep things simple. My usual starting point for looking at a trainer is to look at their overall record in handicaps since the start of 2010, usually with horses priced 14/1 or shorter. From there I can then dig down.

Every now and then you do not need to do too much more digging. You find a trainer that you can blindly back in handicaps and make handsome profits. Today I have such a trainer for you.

I have been tracking her for some time and she is operating 61% above market expectations. Her handicappers are consistently sent off at bigger odds than they should be, especially when they are relatively fit.

The trainer in question is Sue Gardner.

The rules for this micro system are as follows:-

  1. National Hunt Racing
  2. Handicap
  3. 14/1 or under
  4. Horse days since run: Between 1 and 120

And that’s it. A very straightforward micro system but very effective as you can see below…

Results (2010-)

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
ALL 184 47 25.54 124.03 91 49.46 67.41 169.11 91.91 52.17 55.21 1.61
2014 34 8 23.53 19.83 13 38.24 58.32 27.3 80.31 41.18 2.4 1.67
2013 51 9 17.65 18.75 25 49.02 36.76 30.35 59.51 50.98 17 1.18
2012 57 17 29.82 34.2 32 56.14 60 45.31 79.49 59.65 18.35 1.66
2011 26 10 38.46 47.25 16 61.54 181.73 60.4 232.3 65.38 21.57 2.43
2010 16 3 18.75 4 5 31.25 25 5.74 35.9 31.25 -4.11 1.28

47 winners from 184 runners is very respectable and so is the win and place strike rate. Nearly 170 points at Betfair Starting Price in 5 years is nothing short of spectacular for such a simple approach. Without doubt Sue Gardner’s handicappers, when returning within 120 days, are to be kept onside.

In previous posts/guides that have an odds cap I have made the mistake of not showing the results for those horses priced above the cap. As such the results for horses priced over 14/1 are as follows…

Bets Wins Win% P/L(SP) Places Place% ROI(SP) P/L(BF) ROI(BF) Plc(BF) Plc%(BF) P/L(Plc) A/E
70 0 0 -70 2 2.86 -100 -70 -100 2 2.86 -53.88 0

 

So all in all, I wouldn’t really bother with the bigger priced horses, but it is up to you 🙂

That is it for this post. I have been and will continue to follow Sue Gardner’s handicappers systematically. As always you are free to do with this information what you please.

Until the next time,

Josh

About This Author

Hi, I'm Josh and thanks for reading my blog, Racing To Profit. Hopefully you like what you find. This is a place for horse racing fans of all levels and ability, bettors and non bettors. Here I, and fellow readers, share our opinions on horses and information that may help you find your own winners. Do say hi, we are a friendly bunch... and if you could use the 'share buttons' above that would also be appreciated :)

3 Comments

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  • hi paul, re the sue gardner system, will these selections be added to the bonus selections , regards BOB.

    bob 2 years ago Reply


    • Hi Bob, yes the Sue Gardner selections will be added to OTT members area, in the usual Bonus selections place. I will put together a proper mini guide but i think it is solid enough to go in. Josh

      Josh Wright 2 years ago Reply


  • Hi josh thanks for the S Gardner stats, perhaps the stats I use below could be another angle with this trainer

    SUSAN GARDNER IS A SMALL TRAINER WORTH FOLLOWING
    With the following criteria
    A trainer who has done well in the past couple of years is Susan Gardner.
    She does okay with Lucy riding for her.
    But it’s when she has other claiming jockeys riding that she excels.
    With a jockey (Not Lucy Gardner ) who is claiming an allowance
    Racing over more than 2m 2fs
    SP less than 14/1
    Running again within 52 days
    RESULTS SINCE 2011
    18 Won from 47 runners (Strike Rate 38.3%) LSP £75.5 ROI +160.6%.

    Could you run it through your system builder to see if the facts stack up

    Philip 2 years ago Reply


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