Pace Wins The Race: Selections 20/11/14

This is the first of what will be a daily post from Monday to Friday. The intention is to find one race and one horse that will benefit from the pace set up of the race. Primarily this will focus on those front-runners that I think can get out and stay out all the way to the winning post. Sometimes it may focus on a hold-up horse who could benefit from a ‘pace burn-up’.

I am not comfortable calling this a ‘tipping’ piece and I would not advise backing the selections just yet. This is essentially a public test of an approach I have been using successfully for the last 8 months or so. (which coincided with me joining a service that allowed me to visualise pace at the click of a button-more on that in due course 🙂 ) Over the next few weeks and months hopefully these posts makes some decent profits to advised odds. One thing is for sure, I will be betting every single one with my usual level stake, so if I post them, I fancy them! And if they lose, I lose!

My betting approach is to make money, not to find winners. The two are very different. This ‘angle in’ helps to highlight those horses who I think may be overpriced and worth a bet. I will select more losers than winners but over time I hope these posts make a decent profit. There is only one way to find out…

Selections

To start things of I have been greedy by selecting two ‘pace’ horses..in future it will probably just be one..

1.40 Chepstow

Gunna Be A Devil 6/1 – 1 point win

Positives

Looks to be the only consistent out and out front runner-hopefully he is sent to the front again, despite his age he is still unexposed,ground is fine, so is distance having won over 1f further, jockey is 1 from 2 on him,running in the right class,undulating tracks fine (won at Exeter) so is going left handed (won at Warwick), both career wins in November/December, field size is fine (horses are herd animals,some like single figure fields and open space, others like to be surrounded by their friends and hate having lots of space, others can just never pass the ‘leader; in front etc etc-bit more to it than that but you get the idea!) weight on his back is fine, so is his rating and last but not least he has a great record after a break. 3 runs returning after 121 days or more, 2 wins. They are his only career wins, so this is the time to catch him. (Finally – you can’t find all of that information at the click of a button on the Racing Post online – which is why I rarely/never use it!)

Negatives

This is only his second chase run ever!! Yes that is a big worry. Will he jump well, is he a natural jumper, how will he get on? At least he is unexposed. And in truth all of the positives above, including the pace angle, allied to his price make him a bet for me. It is a chance i am happy to take.

Opposition

Well due to time constraints I don’t think I will write lots on the opposition every single day. You will just have to trust that I have been as thorough with them as I have with highlighting the pros and cons of the selection. J  Halley and Smiles For Miles have never won on the going (although couple of placed efforts), nor in the class or the distance. Flaming Charmer needs to prove he stays. Bendant is solid and the jockey booking catches the eye, but he has never won after a break of more than 60 days, although he has placed a few times, hopefully he is running on empty near the end. Tarabella has the same fitness concerns although the trainer can ready one, however he looks best going right handed and it looks like Feb/March is his time of year. Infact, crickey, he is 5 from 9 in February and a further place for 46 points profit at SP! He has just gone straight in the tracker and I will be lumping on in a few months time! Hopefully today is not his day. And those 5 wins in February have been for 3 different trainers! Yes, that is his month! (he is 11yo now, but let’s hope he can win in February one more time)  Cruising Bye is 2/18 however there is nothing that really puts me off, on paper I have seen worse 9/1 shots. Fourovakind is 0 from 4 in chases and his most recent form is uninspiring, although he does like Chepstow.

Conclusion

All in all an open little race, however I think we have a decent horse on our side who is a decent price. If taking to fences (and yes he could clatter one or fall,that is chance we take but it is built into odds) he should be able to dictate and hopefully he does not see another rival. Chepstow is a galloping track so it may be hard to get away on the front end but hopefully he can do it! Of course if the jockey misjudges the pace and does to much we can all say goodbye to our betting slips.

 

2.50 Chepstow

Kapricorne 6/1 – 1 point win

Positives

Under Killian Moore the selection has been sent to the front on his last two starts and none of the horses behind have been able to catch him. He looks like the only out and out front runner in the race. Paul Moloney (who has a decent record when teaming up with S Leech at Chepstow) now takes the ride and although you think of him as a stalking ‘hold-up’ jockey he is very good from the front – I just hope and pray that he sends this one to the front. The good thing about pace angles is you know where you stand from pretty early in the race!- if he is held up it may be a wasted bet. But I can see no reason, given his form, why they would hold him up. So, he is in form, the ground is no problem, neither is the class nor the distance. There is no course winner in the field and in fact he is only one of three horses to have placed at the track (Always’s Bold and Hector’s House love this place but our horse has beaten Hector’s House 3 times already!)

Negatives

Well there are not too many. Those into their handicapping and ratings will be spitting out their cereal because he has gone up 6lbs and he was ridden by a 5lb claimer last time out. That means he has gone up 11lbs in arguably a slightly stronger race. Surely I can’t back him? In truth I don’t care much for such things – until I see evidence that he is handicapped up to the hilt I will back him. He hasn’t proved that he cannot handle the rise in ratings and his price allows me to take a chance. This is only his 9th run in handicap hurdles and only (hopefully) his 3rd run from the front. So he is still open to improvement and he will relish the step back up to 3 miles. Based in his Ffos Las run he will keep finding for pressure and looks like a galloper. If he can handle that long, never ending straight, he should be fine at Chepstow.

Opposition

I can’t quite believe Johns Luck is as short as he is. Clearly the price is based on his win last time out and he is open to any amount of improvement. However he needs to prove his liking for soft, and he doesn’t have a pace advantage. Now yes he has not proved he cannot handle soft, but he is a 5/4 shot, not 8/1, so it’s a no from me. On paper Always Bold has quite a bit in his favour and he is 3 from 4 in handicap hurdles in November. In fact there are not too many negatives at all. He may actually be worth a saver at 5/1 but that is not an official tip J Of the rest I couldn’t entertain any of the others, they would all have to do something they have never done or rarely have done before (win in ground, or class, or distance)

Conclusion

I think this race is between the fav (good one Josh, great insight!) Always Bold and our selection. I do think the fav is too short based on fact he needs to prove he likes soft and races at Taunton are never the strongest. I would be surprised if one of these didn’t win and maybe all three will be fighting out the finish. Given the pace angle I am happy with Kapricorne and I think I have just talked myself into a saver bet on Always Bold as well!

 

Moving Forward

So yes, this will become a daily feature Monday to Friday, providing I can find a ‘pace angle’ and a horse that can take advantage. Some days there may be no post but I will say if that is the case. Not every post will be this long but hopefully this gives you a flavour of my approach to every ‘form based’ bet that I place. Often it is the same approach for other races minus pace element (ie I don’t just back Front Runners) and plus a few more factors like trends for big races and other stats. In addition to the 10 or so systems I am running at any one time, some of which you have already received.

Fingers crossed for a winning start although I never jump for joy when they win and I never cry when they lose. Racing is a long game, and if you want short term profits, short priced horses to give you a fix, you wont find them here 🙂

Happy Punting

Josh

p.s comments/questions/scrutiny is always welcome, and encouraged.

About This Author

A community committed to making racing fun, enjoyable and profitable in the long term. Josh

31 Comments

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  • hi,enjoyed reading your article and i wish you @everybody who follow you the best of luck(including myself)

    bill fieseler 20/11/14 11:26 AM Reply


  • Good stuff Josh, just flicked over to look at prices and see Gunna Be A Devil who I took early at 7’s is now as big as 10’s on Bf. Looks like he might live up to his name.

    Hugh 20/11/14 11:45 AM Reply


    • Indeed! I dont mind drifters really, although prefer when you see the money coming. I would like to think most punters have been put off by the long lay off, without realising that he has a great record fresh..in fact he only ever wins after a break, hence i suppose why he has had so few runs for his age. Probably at an ok EW price now but my win bet is down.

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 11:54 AM Reply


  • Hi josh
    Now this is the type of approach that i joined your service for, giving reasons why the HORSE has a chance to win, now all it needs is the TRAINER to train him and find the right race,. Good luck with this approach i’m onboard it all makes sense to me

    Dave C 20/11/14 12:07 PM Reply


    • Hi Dave,

      haha cheers, no problem at all! Well the OTT system there is a reason..but it is not form based as such, and a bit different to this. But the reason is sound – a group of 16 trainers who demonstrate their skill at placing their horses, highlighted when they only send one horse to the track! But yes, not form based (although being 14/1 or under indicated they have some sort of chance, rather than complete outsiders)… and the pace posts are of course free 🙂

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 12:12 PM Reply


  • Hey Josh,

    Like the analytical style. After you mentioned it I read Nick Mordin’s “Betting for a Living” and there are some great insights there. Looking forward to more of your thoughts and a pay-off this afternoon…

    Regards,

    Tim

    Tim 20/11/14 12:18 PM Reply


    • Thanks Tim, yes it is a great book, and I need to read it again soon! I do like the diary side and understanding how he thinks about a race. Yes fingers crossed for a pay off today, but even if they both get thumped I know it is an approach that works long term…and of course if they always won we could retire, or retire much richer 🙂

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 12:31 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh

    Another great article. On a seperate note i’d already backed ALWAYS BOLD. Good luck, sort of!!… Lets hope we can get the fave beat anyway. Think i may have a saver on Kapricorne…

    Jimbo 20/11/14 1:13 PM Reply


  • Well not a great start! That ground looks heavier than soft, not sure if he handled it bu tin truth dont think it matters. First time blinkers have done the trick for the Pipe horse, and ours never got the easy lead i thought he might. Will have to wait another few hundred days until he comes out again, maybe on better ground!

    Josh Wright 20/11/14 1:51 PM Reply


  • Well done Josh Kapricorne did the business. RFC??

    Jimbo 20/11/14 3:01 PM Reply


    • Yes that went to plan somewhat! I dont dont FCs, RFCs etc, just bet to win, each way level stakes. The RFC would have been a nice return but I dont play them! Solid start. Race 1 highlights why i probably dont bet in Novices too often, Pipe horse open to improvement if Blinkers worked – however as a rule i dont pay loads of attention to first time headgear as you never know how they will take to it…in hindsight the ground was not soft and our one was unproven beyond soft, maybe didnt handle ground although dont think it mattered. Anyway, nice 5 points profit on day if getting the 6/1

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 3:19 PM Reply


  • Well done with a winner today at s/p of 4/1, shall be keeping a close eye out for you future emails

    Philip 20/11/14 3:03 PM Reply


    • Thanks Philip, he was 6/1 for a while after i posted this morning as well, 9/2 last night, so yes a good result. I will be doing a pace post each day Monday to Friday and I wont email every time so you are best stopping by to check it out.

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 3:16 PM Reply


  • hi josh just open your email and i had had a look at the 16:50 earlier in the day and was looking for two or three horses against the fav, this race stastically is not a fav race and the fav did not have form on soft ground it likes good in the going well analysed the 2nd 3rd favs your horses will return a nice profit good stuff

    GORDON MEIKLE 20/11/14 3:08 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh
    Well i did say i liked this approach a big WELL DONE i really think you could be on the way with this

    Dave C 20/11/14 3:20 PM Reply


    • Thanks Dave, much appreciated! I hope I am on my way with this
      Josh

      p.s i would add the same methodical approach goes into my system building 🙂 but appreciated they are not ‘horse’ focused

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 4:50 PM Reply


  • Josh
    Just to add i remember the early days of Martin Pipe and McCoy the only thing the other jockeys saw of their horse was its tail and that was with binoculars
    Pace Matters Full Stop

    Dave C 20/11/14 3:42 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh.
    I have had an in interest in horse racing long enough to know that “one swallow does not constitute spring” (i.e. Kapricorne) but credit where it’s due – very impressive clinical analysis of both races.
    Looking forward in anticipation to your recommendations re: flat races.
    I understand where you are coming from as many years ago I owned the “tail” of a strong frontrunner who apparently was completely blind in the left eye, and could not go a yard past 7 furlongs.
    He won 6 times on right handed courses only between 6 and 7 furlongs all of them from the front setting a strong gallop – he wasn’t the best of lookers but he had lots of heart.

    nodroG sacuL 20/11/14 3:43 PM Reply


    • Hi…superb story about your front runner, its info like that, or finding those horses that have a clear pattern, which can really pay. Yes i found the pace angles worked well on the flat, and there will be a few on the All-Weather no doubt – you only had to see Barracuda Boy at Lingfield yesterday/day before, judged to perfection and just lasted home. Finding the right Joe Fanning front runners is rather profitable as well!

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 3:49 PM Reply


      • Appreciate your reply Josh.

        I also like to have a tickle if George Baker on a strong front runner (unless “the master” Ryan Moore has a ride in the race who in my humble opinion is the best (apart from the legendary ice cool Lester Piggott) that I have had the pleasure of watching.

        I appreciate and understand the many hours you have invested in trying to find the elusive “vein of gold” – as I also have the “T’ shirt.
        Don Quixote’s quest is far easier!

        nodroG sacuL 20/11/14 4:18 PM Reply


  • Josh,

    Cheers, mate. Got my days wages from your two front runners even though ” the Devil ” faded I got out in running.

    Peter B

    Peter B 20/11/14 4:11 PM Reply


  • Devil was a bit of a disappointment as he appeared to run out of steam and was tailed off pretty badly after a good start. Kapricorne on the other hand showed how it needed to be done, set the pace well and then when he needed the extra it was there. Don’t know if anyone was listening to Timeform Radio but they were talking down his chances saying that he was a warning horse. Good thing there are many different opinions otherwise we’d not have a market. Looking forward to some flat action to round the day off.

    Tim

    Tim 20/11/14 4:25 PM Reply


    • Thanks for comment Tim…yes different opinions are important and I have learnt to not be swayed by anyone else’s! I am not into how Timeform evaluate races, i dont do times, or ratings really (there are exceptions) but take kapricorne he had effectively gone up 11lbs and won as if he could defy another rise. Devil was disappointing..firstly he couldnt get an uncontested lead due to the blinkers perking up Pipes horse-and Tom Schu rode him as if he thought was on best horse, and secondly Devil was unproven on Heavy…going was officially soft but on ATR they said it was riding much slower..he had decent form on Good going, as well as soft, so that may have had something to do with it. However, even on better surface i dont think that winner was getting beat. That is how it goes, they cant all win 🙂

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 4:29 PM Reply


  • Excellent pick Josh, did you hear Paul Moloney talking about ‘waiting in front’ I know it wasn’t a chase but a cracking ride over 3m from the front.
    Hugh

    Hugh 20/11/14 4:38 PM Reply


    • I missed that interview, although had it on in background…he looked over his shoulder when turning into the straight and I was confident then, and he did it 2 times down the home straight…he is such a bloody good judge of pace..he could go his own speed and he knew he had plenty left in the tank..fav had to use up energy to close, and also wasnt good enough in conditions, and cracking run from Always Bold, he does like November and he may have a race in him in next couple of weeks if pace collapses.

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 4:48 PM Reply


  • Great write up which was extremely interesting ; lets hope the positive results continue

    Andrew 20/11/14 7:01 PM Reply


    • Thanks for comment… You and me both Andrew!

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 7:07 PM Reply


  • Hi Josh,
    I didn’t back them today as was busy unfortunately…
    However-I have just read the write ups and it was good to see U bag a winner!!
    On a different note-I didn’t sign up to your service purely because I already have quite a few irons in the fire so to speak,but I’m always on the look out for a genuine and honest person as they are quite rare in this game.
    How many horses do all your angles normally involve u backing on most day though Josh?3,5,10??
    Well done mate-look forward to the next post.Will it be emailed again-or should we log into this site to get the necessary information??
    Mick

    Mick 20/11/14 9:01 PM Reply


    • Hi Mick,
      the posts will not be emailed every day you will just have to check – i dont want to bombard people with too many emails and hopefully those that want to get into the habit of coming to the site everyday..I will only do posts monday to friday as they are quite time consuming, each one taking just over an hour to put together. So tomorrow’s is up and the next one will be Monday morning.

      In terms of my main service, I put the sold signs up a couple of days ago..at the moment it is suffering new system launch syndrome and while it has had winners they have been short prices and it is currently 10 points down betting each way and 16 points betting win only- minus 19 points was the worst I suffered in the last 9 months so I am hoping some of the 4 qualifiers tomorrow win! The system averages 1.65 selections a day…today there were 2 and tomorrow there are 4, last week there were two days with no selections. Average winning odds is 4.7/1. So, it will turn around, soon!

      Josh Wright 20/11/14 9:23 PM Reply


      • *that should have said last 5 months of live betting/testing.

        Josh Wright 20/11/14 9:24 PM Reply


  • Nice work today. One winner out of two is good and I managed to back and lay both in running for a small profit on both. Interesting stuff so far.

    John 20/11/14 9:14 PM Reply


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